**Forecasts from the National Weather Service and other models show Houston on August 29 under sunny, high-pressure conditions with light easterly winds and minimal cloud cover or rain chances, supporting a daytime high in the mid-90s.** This setup favors strong solar heating amid persistent humidity, with heat indices near 103–105°F, but the exact peak depends on subtle variations in boundary-layer mixing, timing of maximum insolation, and any weak onshore flow from the Gulf. Official NWS guidance points to 94°F while some private models and recent runs trend 96–97°F, creating the tight split between the 94–95°F (46.5%) and 96–97°F (47.5%) buckets. Recent cooling from the prior heat wave, combined with stable synoptic patterns and no incoming fronts through the weekend, keeps probabilities balanced near 47% each; traders are pricing the narrow uncertainty range typical when model consensus clusters around these thresholds. New model runs or afternoon observations on the 28th could shift the implied odds before resolution.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · UpdatedHighest temperature in Houston on August 29?
Highest temperature in Houston on August 29?
96-97°F 47%
94-95°F 46%
92-93°F 27%
98-99°F 13%
NEW
NEW
Aug 29, 2026
83°F or below
<1%
84-85°F
<1%
86-87°F
1%
88-89°F
3%
90-91°F
7%
92-93°F
27%
94-95°F
46%
96-97°F
47%
98-99°F
13%
100-101°F
3%
102°F or higher
2%
96-97°F 47%
94-95°F 46%
92-93°F 27%
98-99°F 13%
NEW
NEW
Aug 29, 2026
83°F or below
$0 Vol.
<1%
84-85°F
$0 Vol.
<1%
86-87°F
$0 Vol.
1%
88-89°F
$0 Vol.
3%
90-91°F
$0 Vol.
7%
92-93°F
$0 Vol.
27%
94-95°F
$39 Vol.
46%
96-97°F
$192 Vol.
47%
98-99°F
$0 Vol.
13%
100-101°F
$105 Vol.
3%
102°F or higher
$0 Vol.
2%
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded by NOAA at the William P. Hobby Airport Station in degrees Fahrenheit on 29 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=khou
This market will resolve off of the Hourly Data provided using the "Show Hourly Data" button.
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to US Units w/ kts" button until the relevant table displays °F.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Fahrenheit (eg, 21°F). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.**Forecasts from the National Weather Service and other models show Houston on August 29 under sunny, high-pressure conditions with light easterly winds and minimal cloud cover or rain chances, supporting a daytime high in the mid-90s.**
This setup favors strong solar heating amid persistent humidity, with heat indices near 103–105°F, but the exact peak depends on subtle variations in boundary-layer mixing, timing of maximum insolation, and any weak onshore flow from the Gulf. Official NWS guidance points to 94°F while some private models and recent runs trend 96–97°F, creating the tight split between the 94–95°F (46.5%) and 96–97°F (47.5%) buckets.
Recent cooling from the prior heat wave, combined with stable synoptic patterns and no incoming fronts through the weekend, keeps probabilities balanced near 47% each; traders are pricing the narrow uncertainty range typical when model consensus clusters around these thresholds. New model runs or afternoon observations on the 28th could shift the implied odds before resolution.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded by NOAA at the William P. Hobby Airport Station in degrees Fahrenheit on 29 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=khou
This market will resolve off of the Hourly Data provided using the "Show Hourly Data" button.
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to US Units w/ kts" button until the relevant table displays °F.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Fahrenheit (eg, 21°F). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=khou
This market will resolve off of the Hourly Data provided using the "Show Hourly Data" button.
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to US Units w/ kts" button until the relevant table displays °F.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Fahrenheit (eg, 21°F). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
Market Opened: Aug 27, 2026, 8:57 PM ET
Volume
$337End Date
Aug 29, 2026Market Opened
Aug 27, 2026, 8:57 PM ETResolution Source
https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=khouResolver
0x69c47De9D...This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded by NOAA at the William P. Hobby Airport Station in degrees Fahrenheit on 29 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=khou
This market will resolve off of the Hourly Data provided using the "Show Hourly Data" button.
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to US Units w/ kts" button until the relevant table displays °F.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Fahrenheit (eg, 21°F). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.**Forecasts from the National Weather Service and other models show Houston on August 29 under sunny, high-pressure conditions with light easterly winds and minimal cloud cover or rain chances, supporting a daytime high in the mid-90s.**
This setup favors strong solar heating amid persistent humidity, with heat indices near 103–105°F, but the exact peak depends on subtle variations in boundary-layer mixing, timing of maximum insolation, and any weak onshore flow from the Gulf. Official NWS guidance points to 94°F while some private models and recent runs trend 96–97°F, creating the tight split between the 94–95°F (46.5%) and 96–97°F (47.5%) buckets.
Recent cooling from the prior heat wave, combined with stable synoptic patterns and no incoming fronts through the weekend, keeps probabilities balanced near 47% each; traders are pricing the narrow uncertainty range typical when model consensus clusters around these thresholds. New model runs or afternoon observations on the 28th could shift the implied odds before resolution.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded by NOAA at the William P. Hobby Airport Station in degrees Fahrenheit on 29 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=khou
This market will resolve off of the Hourly Data provided using the "Show Hourly Data" button.
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to US Units w/ kts" button until the relevant table displays °F.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Fahrenheit (eg, 21°F). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=khou
This market will resolve off of the Hourly Data provided using the "Show Hourly Data" button.
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to US Units w/ kts" button until the relevant table displays °F.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Fahrenheit (eg, 21°F). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
Volume
$337End Date
Aug 29, 2026Market Opened
Aug 27, 2026, 8:57 PM ETResolution Source
https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=khouResolver
0x69c47De9D...**Forecasts from the National Weather Service and other models show Houston on August 29 under sunny, high-pressure conditions with light easterly winds and minimal cloud cover or rain chances, supporting a daytime high in the mid-90s.** This setup favors strong solar heating amid persistent humidity, with heat indices near 103–105°F, but the exact peak depends on subtle variations in boundary-layer mixing, timing of maximum insolation, and any weak onshore flow from the Gulf. Official NWS guidance points to 94°F while some private models and recent runs trend 96–97°F, creating the tight split between the 94–95°F (46.5%) and 96–97°F (47.5%) buckets. Recent cooling from the prior heat wave, combined with stable synoptic patterns and no incoming fronts through the weekend, keeps probabilities balanced near 47% each; traders are pricing the narrow uncertainty range typical when model consensus clusters around these thresholds. New model runs or afternoon observations on the 28th could shift the implied odds before resolution.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated
Beware of external links.
Beware of external links.
Frequently Asked Questions