**Trader consensus centers on Miami’s typical late-summer climatology, where National Weather Service normals place the overnight low near 78°F for late August.** Forecast models from NOAA and AccuWeather consistently projected a minimum in the mid-to-upper 70s for August 24, 2026, under prevailing sea-breeze patterns, scattered convection, and a weakening Saharan Air Layer that limits extreme overnight cooling. Recent heat-wave conditions raised daytime maxima but left nocturnal temperatures anchored by high humidity and urban heat-island effects, keeping the distribution tightly clustered around 76–77°F. This produces the 99.6% implied probability, reflecting the narrow historical variability (record lows near 70°F are rare in August) and the absence of any synoptic feature—such as a strong cold front or unusually clear, dry air mass—capable of driving the mercury significantly lower. The only realistic challenges would be a sharp, unforecasted drop in dew points combined with clear skies or an unusually vigorous thunderstorm outflow, neither of which appeared in the latest model runs or official guidance.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · UpdatedLowest temperature in Miami on August 24?
Lowest temperature in Miami on August 24?
76-77°F 100.0%
69°F or below <1%
70-71°F <1%
72-73°F <1%
$8,596 Vol.
$8,596 Vol.
Aug 24, 2026
69°F or below
<1%
70-71°F
<1%
72-73°F
<1%
74-75°F
<1%
76-77°F
100%
78-79°F
<1%
80-81°F
<1%
82-83°F
<1%
84-85°F
<1%
86-87°F
<1%
88°F or higher
<1%
76-77°F 100.0%
69°F or below <1%
70-71°F <1%
72-73°F <1%
$8,596 Vol.
$8,596 Vol.
Aug 24, 2026
69°F or below
$130 Vol.
<1%
70-71°F
$679 Vol.
<1%
72-73°F
$1,584 Vol.
<1%
74-75°F
$801 Vol.
<1%
76-77°F
$518 Vol.
100%
78-79°F
$2,238 Vol.
<1%
80-81°F
$1,052 Vol.
<1%
82-83°F
$906 Vol.
<1%
84-85°F
$189 Vol.
<1%
86-87°F
$299 Vol.
<1%
88°F or higher
$199 Vol.
<1%
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Miami Intl Airport Station in degrees Fahrenheit on 24 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=kmia
This market will resolve off of the Hourly Data provided using the "Show Hourly Data" button.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to US Units w/ kts" button until the relevant table displays °F.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Fahrenheit (eg, 21°F). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.**Trader consensus centers on Miami’s typical late-summer climatology, where National Weather Service normals place the overnight low near 78°F for late August.** Forecast models from NOAA and AccuWeather consistently projected a minimum in the mid-to-upper 70s for August 24, 2026, under prevailing sea-breeze patterns, scattered convection, and a weakening Saharan Air Layer that limits extreme overnight cooling. Recent heat-wave conditions raised daytime maxima but left nocturnal temperatures anchored by high humidity and urban heat-island effects, keeping the distribution tightly clustered around 76–77°F.
This produces the 99.6% implied probability, reflecting the narrow historical variability (record lows near 70°F are rare in August) and the absence of any synoptic feature—such as a strong cold front or unusually clear, dry air mass—capable of driving the mercury significantly lower. The only realistic challenges would be a sharp, unforecasted drop in dew points combined with clear skies or an unusually vigorous thunderstorm outflow, neither of which appeared in the latest model runs or official guidance.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Miami Intl Airport Station in degrees Fahrenheit on 24 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=kmia
This market will resolve off of the Hourly Data provided using the "Show Hourly Data" button.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to US Units w/ kts" button until the relevant table displays °F.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Fahrenheit (eg, 21°F). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=kmia
This market will resolve off of the Hourly Data provided using the "Show Hourly Data" button.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to US Units w/ kts" button until the relevant table displays °F.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Fahrenheit (eg, 21°F). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
Market Opened: Aug 22, 2026, 9:29 PM ET
Volume
$8,596End Date
Aug 24, 2026Market Opened
Aug 22, 2026, 9:29 PM ETResolution Source
https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=kmiaResolver
0x69c47De9D...This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Miami Intl Airport Station in degrees Fahrenheit on 24 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=kmia
This market will resolve off of the Hourly Data provided using the "Show Hourly Data" button.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to US Units w/ kts" button until the relevant table displays °F.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Fahrenheit (eg, 21°F). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.**Trader consensus centers on Miami’s typical late-summer climatology, where National Weather Service normals place the overnight low near 78°F for late August.** Forecast models from NOAA and AccuWeather consistently projected a minimum in the mid-to-upper 70s for August 24, 2026, under prevailing sea-breeze patterns, scattered convection, and a weakening Saharan Air Layer that limits extreme overnight cooling. Recent heat-wave conditions raised daytime maxima but left nocturnal temperatures anchored by high humidity and urban heat-island effects, keeping the distribution tightly clustered around 76–77°F.
This produces the 99.6% implied probability, reflecting the narrow historical variability (record lows near 70°F are rare in August) and the absence of any synoptic feature—such as a strong cold front or unusually clear, dry air mass—capable of driving the mercury significantly lower. The only realistic challenges would be a sharp, unforecasted drop in dew points combined with clear skies or an unusually vigorous thunderstorm outflow, neither of which appeared in the latest model runs or official guidance.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Miami Intl Airport Station in degrees Fahrenheit on 24 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=kmia
This market will resolve off of the Hourly Data provided using the "Show Hourly Data" button.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to US Units w/ kts" button until the relevant table displays °F.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Fahrenheit (eg, 21°F). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=kmia
This market will resolve off of the Hourly Data provided using the "Show Hourly Data" button.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to US Units w/ kts" button until the relevant table displays °F.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Fahrenheit (eg, 21°F). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
Volume
$8,596End Date
Aug 24, 2026Market Opened
Aug 22, 2026, 9:29 PM ETResolution Source
https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=kmiaResolver
0x69c47De9D...**Trader consensus centers on Miami’s typical late-summer climatology, where National Weather Service normals place the overnight low near 78°F for late August.** Forecast models from NOAA and AccuWeather consistently projected a minimum in the mid-to-upper 70s for August 24, 2026, under prevailing sea-breeze patterns, scattered convection, and a weakening Saharan Air Layer that limits extreme overnight cooling. Recent heat-wave conditions raised daytime maxima but left nocturnal temperatures anchored by high humidity and urban heat-island effects, keeping the distribution tightly clustered around 76–77°F. This produces the 99.6% implied probability, reflecting the narrow historical variability (record lows near 70°F are rare in August) and the absence of any synoptic feature—such as a strong cold front or unusually clear, dry air mass—capable of driving the mercury significantly lower. The only realistic challenges would be a sharp, unforecasted drop in dew points combined with clear skies or an unusually vigorous thunderstorm outflow, neither of which appeared in the latest model runs or official guidance.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated
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