**Miami's typical August overnight lows hover near 78°F due to persistent high humidity, light winds, and residual moisture from daytime convection.** On August 25, 2026, forecasts from the National Weather Service and AccuWeather point to a low around 80°F under mostly clear to partly cloudy skies with light southeast winds, consistent with the market's tight clustering around 76–81°F. **The close spread among the top three buckets (76–77°F, 80–81°F, and 78–79°F) reflects uncertainty in radiational cooling overnight.** Key variables include the exact timing and coverage of any lingering clouds or showers from afternoon thunderstorms, which trap heat, versus clearer periods that allow more surface heat loss. High dew points near 75°F further limit the drop by reducing the temperature-dew point spread. Calm winds after midnight favor modest cooling toward the lower end of the range, while any increase in mixing keeps readings closer to 80–81°F. **No significant large-scale features—such as a tropical wave or frontal boundary—are altering the pattern, keeping outcomes tightly bunched near climatological norms.** Traders appear to weigh the high probability of a standard humid night against small forecast variations in cloud timing and wind that could shift the official low by a degree or two.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · UpdatedLowest temperature in Miami on August 25?
Lowest temperature in Miami on August 25?
78-79°F 52%
80-81°F 34%
76-77°F 12%
74-75°F 8%
NEW
NEW
Aug 25, 2026
69°F or below
<1%
70-71°F
<1%
72-73°F
5%
74-75°F
8%
76-77°F
27%
78-79°F
33%
80-81°F
34%
82-83°F
<1%
84-85°F
<1%
86-87°F
<1%
88°F or higher
<1%
78-79°F 52%
80-81°F 34%
76-77°F 12%
74-75°F 8%
NEW
NEW
Aug 25, 2026
69°F or below
$200 Vol.
<1%
70-71°F
$10 Vol.
<1%
72-73°F
$292 Vol.
5%
74-75°F
$58 Vol.
8%
76-77°F
$160 Vol.
27%
78-79°F
$214 Vol.
33%
80-81°F
$352 Vol.
34%
82-83°F
$259 Vol.
<1%
84-85°F
$279 Vol.
<1%
86-87°F
$259 Vol.
<1%
88°F or higher
$1,633 Vol.
<1%
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Miami Intl Airport Station in degrees Fahrenheit on 25 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=kmia
This market will resolve off of the Hourly Data provided using the "Show Hourly Data" button.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to US Units w/ kts" button until the relevant table displays °F.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Fahrenheit (eg, 21°F). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.**Miami's typical August overnight lows hover near 78°F due to persistent high humidity, light winds, and residual moisture from daytime convection.** On August 25, 2026, forecasts from the National Weather Service and AccuWeather point to a low around 80°F under mostly clear to partly cloudy skies with light southeast winds, consistent with the market's tight clustering around 76–81°F.
**The close spread among the top three buckets (76–77°F, 80–81°F, and 78–79°F) reflects uncertainty in radiational cooling overnight.** Key variables include the exact timing and coverage of any lingering clouds or showers from afternoon thunderstorms, which trap heat, versus clearer periods that allow more surface heat loss. High dew points near 75°F further limit the drop by reducing the temperature-dew point spread. Calm winds after midnight favor modest cooling toward the lower end of the range, while any increase in mixing keeps readings closer to 80–81°F.
**No significant large-scale features—such as a tropical wave or frontal boundary—are altering the pattern, keeping outcomes tightly bunched near climatological norms.** Traders appear to weigh the high probability of a standard humid night against small forecast variations in cloud timing and wind that could shift the official low by a degree or two.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Miami Intl Airport Station in degrees Fahrenheit on 25 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=kmia
This market will resolve off of the Hourly Data provided using the "Show Hourly Data" button.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to US Units w/ kts" button until the relevant table displays °F.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Fahrenheit (eg, 21°F). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=kmia
This market will resolve off of the Hourly Data provided using the "Show Hourly Data" button.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to US Units w/ kts" button until the relevant table displays °F.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Fahrenheit (eg, 21°F). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
Market Opened: Aug 23, 2026, 9:29 PM ET
Volume
$3,717End Date
Aug 25, 2026Market Opened
Aug 23, 2026, 9:29 PM ETResolution Source
https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=kmiaResolver
0x69c47De9D...This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Miami Intl Airport Station in degrees Fahrenheit on 25 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=kmia
This market will resolve off of the Hourly Data provided using the "Show Hourly Data" button.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to US Units w/ kts" button until the relevant table displays °F.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Fahrenheit (eg, 21°F). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.**Miami's typical August overnight lows hover near 78°F due to persistent high humidity, light winds, and residual moisture from daytime convection.** On August 25, 2026, forecasts from the National Weather Service and AccuWeather point to a low around 80°F under mostly clear to partly cloudy skies with light southeast winds, consistent with the market's tight clustering around 76–81°F.
**The close spread among the top three buckets (76–77°F, 80–81°F, and 78–79°F) reflects uncertainty in radiational cooling overnight.** Key variables include the exact timing and coverage of any lingering clouds or showers from afternoon thunderstorms, which trap heat, versus clearer periods that allow more surface heat loss. High dew points near 75°F further limit the drop by reducing the temperature-dew point spread. Calm winds after midnight favor modest cooling toward the lower end of the range, while any increase in mixing keeps readings closer to 80–81°F.
**No significant large-scale features—such as a tropical wave or frontal boundary—are altering the pattern, keeping outcomes tightly bunched near climatological norms.** Traders appear to weigh the high probability of a standard humid night against small forecast variations in cloud timing and wind that could shift the official low by a degree or two.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Miami Intl Airport Station in degrees Fahrenheit on 25 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=kmia
This market will resolve off of the Hourly Data provided using the "Show Hourly Data" button.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to US Units w/ kts" button until the relevant table displays °F.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Fahrenheit (eg, 21°F). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=kmia
This market will resolve off of the Hourly Data provided using the "Show Hourly Data" button.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to US Units w/ kts" button until the relevant table displays °F.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Fahrenheit (eg, 21°F). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
Volume
$3,717End Date
Aug 25, 2026Market Opened
Aug 23, 2026, 9:29 PM ETResolution Source
https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=kmiaResolver
0x69c47De9D...**Miami's typical August overnight lows hover near 78°F due to persistent high humidity, light winds, and residual moisture from daytime convection.** On August 25, 2026, forecasts from the National Weather Service and AccuWeather point to a low around 80°F under mostly clear to partly cloudy skies with light southeast winds, consistent with the market's tight clustering around 76–81°F. **The close spread among the top three buckets (76–77°F, 80–81°F, and 78–79°F) reflects uncertainty in radiational cooling overnight.** Key variables include the exact timing and coverage of any lingering clouds or showers from afternoon thunderstorms, which trap heat, versus clearer periods that allow more surface heat loss. High dew points near 75°F further limit the drop by reducing the temperature-dew point spread. Calm winds after midnight favor modest cooling toward the lower end of the range, while any increase in mixing keeps readings closer to 80–81°F. **No significant large-scale features—such as a tropical wave or frontal boundary—are altering the pattern, keeping outcomes tightly bunched near climatological norms.** Traders appear to weigh the high probability of a standard humid night against small forecast variations in cloud timing and wind that could shift the official low by a degree or two.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated
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