Michelle Bolsonaro (PL) holds the strongest position in the Federal District Senate race for first place due to consistent leads in recent polls, including Datafolha (19%) and RealTime Big Data (25%) released in mid-to-late August 2026. Her confirmed candidacy following the early August PL convention, combined with alliances among major evangelical denominations and backing for the party's broader slate, has consolidated support ahead of the October 4 vote for two seats. Incumbent Leila do Vôlei (PDT) trails closely in second, while Erika Kokay (PT) and Bia Kicis (PL) remain competitive but further back in the multi-candidate field. Traders' implied probabilities reflect these polling trends and the absence of major late disruptions in the past 30 days.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · UpdatedMichelle Bolsonaro 63%
Leila do Vôlei 29%
Erika Kokay 5.3%
Ronaldo Fonseca 2.4%
$11,162 Vol.
$11,162 Vol.
Oct 4, 2026
Michelle Bolsonaro
63%
Leila do Vôlei
29%
Erika Kokay
5%
Ronaldo Fonseca
2%
Bia Kicis
1%
Avenir Rosa
1%
Professor Guilherme Amorim
<1%
Sebastião Coelho
<1%
Tiago
<1%
Zanata
<1%
Guto Felício dos Santos
<1%
David Horn
<1%
Marley
<1%
Michelle Bolsonaro 63%
Leila do Vôlei 29%
Erika Kokay 5.3%
Ronaldo Fonseca 2.4%
$11,162 Vol.
$11,162 Vol.
Oct 4, 2026
Michelle Bolsonaro
$3,304 Vol.
63%
Leila do Vôlei
$1,821 Vol.
29%
Erika Kokay
$531 Vol.
5%
Ronaldo Fonseca
$288 Vol.
2%
Bia Kicis
$2,456 Vol.
1%
Avenir Rosa
$291 Vol.
1%
Professor Guilherme Amorim
$421 Vol.
<1%
Sebastião Coelho
$360 Vol.
<1%
Tiago
$428 Vol.
<1%
Zanata
$277 Vol.
<1%
Guto Felício dos Santos
$297 Vol.
<1%
David Horn
$309 Vol.
<1%
Marley
$379 Vol.
<1%
The Brazilian Federal Senate election for Federal District is scheduled to take place on October 4, 2026.
This market will resolve according to the candidate who wins the most valid votes of any candidate at the specified election.
Candidates will be primarily ranked by order of valid votes won. If two or more candidates are tied for any position, ties will be broken by alphabetical order of the candidates’ listed full names as they appear in this market. This market will resolve to the candidate that occupies the highest finishing position after applying this ranking.
If the result of this election isn't definitively known by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "Other".
This market will resolve based on the result of the election, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Brazilian government, specifically the Superior Electoral Court (Tribunal Superior Eleitoral, TSE) (e.g., www.tse.jus.br/eleicoes/resultados-eleicoes).Michelle Bolsonaro (PL) holds the strongest position in the Federal District Senate race for first place due to consistent leads in recent polls, including Datafolha (19%) and RealTime Big Data (25%) released in mid-to-late August 2026. Her confirmed candidacy following the early August PL convention, combined with alliances among major evangelical denominations and backing for the party's broader slate, has consolidated support ahead of the October 4 vote for two seats. Incumbent Leila do Vôlei (PDT) trails closely in second, while Erika Kokay (PT) and Bia Kicis (PL) remain competitive but further back in the multi-candidate field. Traders' implied probabilities reflect these polling trends and the absence of major late disruptions in the past 30 days.
The Brazilian Federal Senate election for Federal District is scheduled to take place on October 4, 2026.
This market will resolve according to the candidate who wins the most valid votes of any candidate at the specified election.
Candidates will be primarily ranked by order of valid votes won. If two or more candidates are tied for any position, ties will be broken by alphabetical order of the candidates’ listed full names as they appear in this market. This market will resolve to the candidate that occupies the highest finishing position after applying this ranking.
If the result of this election isn't definitively known by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "Other".
This market will resolve based on the result of the election, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Brazilian government, specifically the Superior Electoral Court (Tribunal Superior Eleitoral, TSE) (e.g., www.tse.jus.br/eleicoes/resultados-eleicoes).
This market will resolve according to the candidate who wins the most valid votes of any candidate at the specified election.
Candidates will be primarily ranked by order of valid votes won. If two or more candidates are tied for any position, ties will be broken by alphabetical order of the candidates’ listed full names as they appear in this market. This market will resolve to the candidate that occupies the highest finishing position after applying this ranking.
If the result of this election isn't definitively known by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "Other".
This market will resolve based on the result of the election, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Brazilian government, specifically the Superior Electoral Court (Tribunal Superior Eleitoral, TSE) (e.g., www.tse.jus.br/eleicoes/resultados-eleicoes).
Market Opened: Aug 17, 2026, 5:57 AM ET
Volume
$11,162End Date
Oct 4, 2026Market Opened
Aug 17, 2026, 5:57 AM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...The Brazilian Federal Senate election for Federal District is scheduled to take place on October 4, 2026.
This market will resolve according to the candidate who wins the most valid votes of any candidate at the specified election.
Candidates will be primarily ranked by order of valid votes won. If two or more candidates are tied for any position, ties will be broken by alphabetical order of the candidates’ listed full names as they appear in this market. This market will resolve to the candidate that occupies the highest finishing position after applying this ranking.
If the result of this election isn't definitively known by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "Other".
This market will resolve based on the result of the election, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Brazilian government, specifically the Superior Electoral Court (Tribunal Superior Eleitoral, TSE) (e.g., www.tse.jus.br/eleicoes/resultados-eleicoes).Michelle Bolsonaro (PL) holds the strongest position in the Federal District Senate race for first place due to consistent leads in recent polls, including Datafolha (19%) and RealTime Big Data (25%) released in mid-to-late August 2026. Her confirmed candidacy following the early August PL convention, combined with alliances among major evangelical denominations and backing for the party's broader slate, has consolidated support ahead of the October 4 vote for two seats. Incumbent Leila do Vôlei (PDT) trails closely in second, while Erika Kokay (PT) and Bia Kicis (PL) remain competitive but further back in the multi-candidate field. Traders' implied probabilities reflect these polling trends and the absence of major late disruptions in the past 30 days.
The Brazilian Federal Senate election for Federal District is scheduled to take place on October 4, 2026.
This market will resolve according to the candidate who wins the most valid votes of any candidate at the specified election.
Candidates will be primarily ranked by order of valid votes won. If two or more candidates are tied for any position, ties will be broken by alphabetical order of the candidates’ listed full names as they appear in this market. This market will resolve to the candidate that occupies the highest finishing position after applying this ranking.
If the result of this election isn't definitively known by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "Other".
This market will resolve based on the result of the election, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Brazilian government, specifically the Superior Electoral Court (Tribunal Superior Eleitoral, TSE) (e.g., www.tse.jus.br/eleicoes/resultados-eleicoes).
This market will resolve according to the candidate who wins the most valid votes of any candidate at the specified election.
Candidates will be primarily ranked by order of valid votes won. If two or more candidates are tied for any position, ties will be broken by alphabetical order of the candidates’ listed full names as they appear in this market. This market will resolve to the candidate that occupies the highest finishing position after applying this ranking.
If the result of this election isn't definitively known by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "Other".
This market will resolve based on the result of the election, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Brazilian government, specifically the Superior Electoral Court (Tribunal Superior Eleitoral, TSE) (e.g., www.tse.jus.br/eleicoes/resultados-eleicoes).
Volume
$11,162End Date
Oct 4, 2026Market Opened
Aug 17, 2026, 5:57 AM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...Michelle Bolsonaro (PL) holds the strongest position in the Federal District Senate race for first place due to consistent leads in recent polls, including Datafolha (19%) and RealTime Big Data (25%) released in mid-to-late August 2026. Her confirmed candidacy following the early August PL convention, combined with alliances among major evangelical denominations and backing for the party's broader slate, has consolidated support ahead of the October 4 vote for two seats. Incumbent Leila do Vôlei (PDT) trails closely in second, while Erika Kokay (PT) and Bia Kicis (PL) remain competitive but further back in the multi-candidate field. Traders' implied probabilities reflect these polling trends and the absence of major late disruptions in the past 30 days.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated
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