Recent polling from Ipsos-Ipec, Datafolha, Quaest, and AtlasIntel shows incumbent Cid Gomes (PSB) consistently leading or tied for first in the October 4 Ceará Senate race for two seats, while Capitão Wagner (União Brasil) and Luizianne Lins (Rede) compete closely for the second position. Wagner’s alignment with Ciro Gomes’s opposition ticket and Luizianne’s ties to the state government coalition have kept their support levels within margins of error in multiple July–August surveys, with others like Alcides Fernandes (PL) trailing significantly. Candidate registrations were formalized after party conventions in late July, and persistent high undecided or blank responses (often 20–30%) contribute to volatility. Traders price the second-place outcome as tightly contested because small shifts in voter allocation between the top contenders could determine the final ranking, with no dominant late-breaking development yet separating the field.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · UpdatedCapitão Wagner 44%
Cid Gomes 31%
Luizianne 26%
Reginaldo 2.6%
NEW
NEW
Oct 4, 2026
Capitão Wagner
44%
Cid Gomes
31%
Luizianne
26%
Reginaldo
3%
Catarina Matos
2%
Alcides Fernandes
1%
Lino Alves
1%
Guilherme Theophilo
<1%
Capitão Wagner 44%
Cid Gomes 31%
Luizianne 26%
Reginaldo 2.6%
NEW
NEW
Oct 4, 2026
Capitão Wagner
$5,381 Vol.
44%
Cid Gomes
$716 Vol.
31%
Luizianne
$1,188 Vol.
26%
Reginaldo
$374 Vol.
3%
Catarina Matos
$869 Vol.
2%
Alcides Fernandes
$241 Vol.
1%
Lino Alves
$328 Vol.
1%
Guilherme Theophilo
$179 Vol.
<1%
The Brazilian Federal Senate election for Ceará is scheduled to take place on October 4, 2026.
This market will resolve according to the candidate who wins the second-most valid votes of any candidate at the specified election.
Candidates will be primarily ranked by order of valid votes won. If two or more candidates are tied for any position, ties will be broken by alphabetical order of the candidates’ listed full names as they appear in this market. This market will resolve to the candidate that occupies the second-highest finishing position after applying this ranking.
If the result of this election isn't definitively known by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "Other".
This market will resolve based on the result of the election, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Brazilian government, specifically the Superior Electoral Court (Tribunal Superior Eleitoral, TSE) (e.g., www.tse.jus.br/eleicoes/resultados-eleicoes).Recent polling from Ipsos-Ipec, Datafolha, Quaest, and AtlasIntel shows incumbent Cid Gomes (PSB) consistently leading or tied for first in the October 4 Ceará Senate race for two seats, while Capitão Wagner (União Brasil) and Luizianne Lins (Rede) compete closely for the second position. Wagner’s alignment with Ciro Gomes’s opposition ticket and Luizianne’s ties to the state government coalition have kept their support levels within margins of error in multiple July–August surveys, with others like Alcides Fernandes (PL) trailing significantly. Candidate registrations were formalized after party conventions in late July, and persistent high undecided or blank responses (often 20–30%) contribute to volatility. Traders price the second-place outcome as tightly contested because small shifts in voter allocation between the top contenders could determine the final ranking, with no dominant late-breaking development yet separating the field.
The Brazilian Federal Senate election for Ceará is scheduled to take place on October 4, 2026.
This market will resolve according to the candidate who wins the second-most valid votes of any candidate at the specified election.
Candidates will be primarily ranked by order of valid votes won. If two or more candidates are tied for any position, ties will be broken by alphabetical order of the candidates’ listed full names as they appear in this market. This market will resolve to the candidate that occupies the second-highest finishing position after applying this ranking.
If the result of this election isn't definitively known by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "Other".
This market will resolve based on the result of the election, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Brazilian government, specifically the Superior Electoral Court (Tribunal Superior Eleitoral, TSE) (e.g., www.tse.jus.br/eleicoes/resultados-eleicoes).
This market will resolve according to the candidate who wins the second-most valid votes of any candidate at the specified election.
Candidates will be primarily ranked by order of valid votes won. If two or more candidates are tied for any position, ties will be broken by alphabetical order of the candidates’ listed full names as they appear in this market. This market will resolve to the candidate that occupies the second-highest finishing position after applying this ranking.
If the result of this election isn't definitively known by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "Other".
This market will resolve based on the result of the election, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Brazilian government, specifically the Superior Electoral Court (Tribunal Superior Eleitoral, TSE) (e.g., www.tse.jus.br/eleicoes/resultados-eleicoes).
Market Opened: Aug 17, 2026, 5:56 AM ET
Volume
$9,277End Date
Oct 4, 2026Market Opened
Aug 17, 2026, 5:56 AM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...The Brazilian Federal Senate election for Ceará is scheduled to take place on October 4, 2026.
This market will resolve according to the candidate who wins the second-most valid votes of any candidate at the specified election.
Candidates will be primarily ranked by order of valid votes won. If two or more candidates are tied for any position, ties will be broken by alphabetical order of the candidates’ listed full names as they appear in this market. This market will resolve to the candidate that occupies the second-highest finishing position after applying this ranking.
If the result of this election isn't definitively known by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "Other".
This market will resolve based on the result of the election, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Brazilian government, specifically the Superior Electoral Court (Tribunal Superior Eleitoral, TSE) (e.g., www.tse.jus.br/eleicoes/resultados-eleicoes).Recent polling from Ipsos-Ipec, Datafolha, Quaest, and AtlasIntel shows incumbent Cid Gomes (PSB) consistently leading or tied for first in the October 4 Ceará Senate race for two seats, while Capitão Wagner (União Brasil) and Luizianne Lins (Rede) compete closely for the second position. Wagner’s alignment with Ciro Gomes’s opposition ticket and Luizianne’s ties to the state government coalition have kept their support levels within margins of error in multiple July–August surveys, with others like Alcides Fernandes (PL) trailing significantly. Candidate registrations were formalized after party conventions in late July, and persistent high undecided or blank responses (often 20–30%) contribute to volatility. Traders price the second-place outcome as tightly contested because small shifts in voter allocation between the top contenders could determine the final ranking, with no dominant late-breaking development yet separating the field.
The Brazilian Federal Senate election for Ceará is scheduled to take place on October 4, 2026.
This market will resolve according to the candidate who wins the second-most valid votes of any candidate at the specified election.
Candidates will be primarily ranked by order of valid votes won. If two or more candidates are tied for any position, ties will be broken by alphabetical order of the candidates’ listed full names as they appear in this market. This market will resolve to the candidate that occupies the second-highest finishing position after applying this ranking.
If the result of this election isn't definitively known by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "Other".
This market will resolve based on the result of the election, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Brazilian government, specifically the Superior Electoral Court (Tribunal Superior Eleitoral, TSE) (e.g., www.tse.jus.br/eleicoes/resultados-eleicoes).
This market will resolve according to the candidate who wins the second-most valid votes of any candidate at the specified election.
Candidates will be primarily ranked by order of valid votes won. If two or more candidates are tied for any position, ties will be broken by alphabetical order of the candidates’ listed full names as they appear in this market. This market will resolve to the candidate that occupies the second-highest finishing position after applying this ranking.
If the result of this election isn't definitively known by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "Other".
This market will resolve based on the result of the election, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Brazilian government, specifically the Superior Electoral Court (Tribunal Superior Eleitoral, TSE) (e.g., www.tse.jus.br/eleicoes/resultados-eleicoes).
Volume
$9,277End Date
Oct 4, 2026Market Opened
Aug 17, 2026, 5:56 AM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...Recent polling from Ipsos-Ipec, Datafolha, Quaest, and AtlasIntel shows incumbent Cid Gomes (PSB) consistently leading or tied for first in the October 4 Ceará Senate race for two seats, while Capitão Wagner (União Brasil) and Luizianne Lins (Rede) compete closely for the second position. Wagner’s alignment with Ciro Gomes’s opposition ticket and Luizianne’s ties to the state government coalition have kept their support levels within margins of error in multiple July–August surveys, with others like Alcides Fernandes (PL) trailing significantly. Candidate registrations were formalized after party conventions in late July, and persistent high undecided or blank responses (often 20–30%) contribute to volatility. Traders price the second-place outcome as tightly contested because small shifts in voter allocation between the top contenders could determine the final ranking, with no dominant late-breaking development yet separating the field.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated
Beware of external links.
Beware of external links.
Frequently Asked Questions