Flávio Bolsonaro’s commanding 94.5% implied probability to finish first in Mato Grosso’s October 4 first-round presidential vote reflects the state’s conservative electorate, strong Liberal Party (PL) organization, and consolidation of right-wing support behind the Jair Bolsonaro-endorsed candidate. Recent August polling from Real Time Big Data showed him at 43% in stimulated first-round scenarios there, well ahead of other contenders, consistent with the region’s agricultural base and past voting patterns favoring the former president’s movement. Party conventions closed in early August with Flávio as the PL nominee and Alfredo Gaspar as running mate, further locking in that alignment ahead of the formal campaign. Lula and minor candidates remain far behind in local surveys. A late scandal, health event, or unexpected surge by regional figures could still alter the outcome before election day, though current conditions point to sustained dominance.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · UpdatedFlavio Bolsonaro 95%
Lula 3.0%
Zema <1%
Hertz Dias <1%
NEW
NEW
Oct 4, 2026
Flavio Bolsonaro
95%
Lula
3%
Zema
1%
Hertz Dias
1%
Ronaldo Caiado
1%
Clariana Barao
1%
Edmilson Costa
1%
Escritor Augusto Cury
1%
Pablo Marçal
1%
Renan Santos
1%
Rui Costa Pimenta
1%
Samara
1%
Veterinário Wilson Grassi
1%
Flavio Bolsonaro 95%
Lula 3.0%
Zema <1%
Hertz Dias <1%
NEW
NEW
Oct 4, 2026
Flavio Bolsonaro
$2,761 Vol.
95%
Lula
$1,328 Vol.
3%
Zema
$481 Vol.
1%
Hertz Dias
$274 Vol.
1%
Ronaldo Caiado
$332 Vol.
1%
Clariana Barao
$278 Vol.
1%
Edmilson Costa
$358 Vol.
1%
Escritor Augusto Cury
$373 Vol.
1%
Pablo Marçal
$327 Vol.
1%
Renan Santos
$248 Vol.
1%
Rui Costa Pimenta
$291 Vol.
1%
Samara
$365 Vol.
1%
Veterinário Wilson Grassi
$284 Vol.
1%
A presidential election is scheduled to take place in Mato Grosso, Brazil on October 4, 2026.
This market will resolve according to the listed candidate who receives the most valid votes in the first round of this election from Mato Grosso.
Candidates will be primarily ranked by order of valid votes won in Mato Grosso. If two or more candidates are tied for any position, ties will be broken by alphabetical order of the candidates’ listed full names as they appear in this market. This market will resolve to the candidate that occupies the highest finishing position after applying this ranking.
If the result of this election isn't known definitively by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "Other".
This market will resolve based on the result of the election, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Brazilian government, specifically the Superior Electoral Court (Tribunal Superior Eleitoral, TSE) (e.g., https://dadosabertos.tse.jus.br/).Flávio Bolsonaro’s commanding 94.5% implied probability to finish first in Mato Grosso’s October 4 first-round presidential vote reflects the state’s conservative electorate, strong Liberal Party (PL) organization, and consolidation of right-wing support behind the Jair Bolsonaro-endorsed candidate. Recent August polling from Real Time Big Data showed him at 43% in stimulated first-round scenarios there, well ahead of other contenders, consistent with the region’s agricultural base and past voting patterns favoring the former president’s movement. Party conventions closed in early August with Flávio as the PL nominee and Alfredo Gaspar as running mate, further locking in that alignment ahead of the formal campaign. Lula and minor candidates remain far behind in local surveys. A late scandal, health event, or unexpected surge by regional figures could still alter the outcome before election day, though current conditions point to sustained dominance.
A presidential election is scheduled to take place in Mato Grosso, Brazil on October 4, 2026.
This market will resolve according to the listed candidate who receives the most valid votes in the first round of this election from Mato Grosso.
Candidates will be primarily ranked by order of valid votes won in Mato Grosso. If two or more candidates are tied for any position, ties will be broken by alphabetical order of the candidates’ listed full names as they appear in this market. This market will resolve to the candidate that occupies the highest finishing position after applying this ranking.
If the result of this election isn't known definitively by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "Other".
This market will resolve based on the result of the election, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Brazilian government, specifically the Superior Electoral Court (Tribunal Superior Eleitoral, TSE) (e.g., https://dadosabertos.tse.jus.br/).
This market will resolve according to the listed candidate who receives the most valid votes in the first round of this election from Mato Grosso.
Candidates will be primarily ranked by order of valid votes won in Mato Grosso. If two or more candidates are tied for any position, ties will be broken by alphabetical order of the candidates’ listed full names as they appear in this market. This market will resolve to the candidate that occupies the highest finishing position after applying this ranking.
If the result of this election isn't known definitively by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "Other".
This market will resolve based on the result of the election, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Brazilian government, specifically the Superior Electoral Court (Tribunal Superior Eleitoral, TSE) (e.g., https://dadosabertos.tse.jus.br/).
Market Opened: Aug 17, 2026, 6:31 AM ET
Volume
$7,700End Date
Oct 4, 2026Market Opened
Aug 17, 2026, 6:31 AM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...A presidential election is scheduled to take place in Mato Grosso, Brazil on October 4, 2026.
This market will resolve according to the listed candidate who receives the most valid votes in the first round of this election from Mato Grosso.
Candidates will be primarily ranked by order of valid votes won in Mato Grosso. If two or more candidates are tied for any position, ties will be broken by alphabetical order of the candidates’ listed full names as they appear in this market. This market will resolve to the candidate that occupies the highest finishing position after applying this ranking.
If the result of this election isn't known definitively by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "Other".
This market will resolve based on the result of the election, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Brazilian government, specifically the Superior Electoral Court (Tribunal Superior Eleitoral, TSE) (e.g., https://dadosabertos.tse.jus.br/).Flávio Bolsonaro’s commanding 94.5% implied probability to finish first in Mato Grosso’s October 4 first-round presidential vote reflects the state’s conservative electorate, strong Liberal Party (PL) organization, and consolidation of right-wing support behind the Jair Bolsonaro-endorsed candidate. Recent August polling from Real Time Big Data showed him at 43% in stimulated first-round scenarios there, well ahead of other contenders, consistent with the region’s agricultural base and past voting patterns favoring the former president’s movement. Party conventions closed in early August with Flávio as the PL nominee and Alfredo Gaspar as running mate, further locking in that alignment ahead of the formal campaign. Lula and minor candidates remain far behind in local surveys. A late scandal, health event, or unexpected surge by regional figures could still alter the outcome before election day, though current conditions point to sustained dominance.
A presidential election is scheduled to take place in Mato Grosso, Brazil on October 4, 2026.
This market will resolve according to the listed candidate who receives the most valid votes in the first round of this election from Mato Grosso.
Candidates will be primarily ranked by order of valid votes won in Mato Grosso. If two or more candidates are tied for any position, ties will be broken by alphabetical order of the candidates’ listed full names as they appear in this market. This market will resolve to the candidate that occupies the highest finishing position after applying this ranking.
If the result of this election isn't known definitively by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "Other".
This market will resolve based on the result of the election, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Brazilian government, specifically the Superior Electoral Court (Tribunal Superior Eleitoral, TSE) (e.g., https://dadosabertos.tse.jus.br/).
This market will resolve according to the listed candidate who receives the most valid votes in the first round of this election from Mato Grosso.
Candidates will be primarily ranked by order of valid votes won in Mato Grosso. If two or more candidates are tied for any position, ties will be broken by alphabetical order of the candidates’ listed full names as they appear in this market. This market will resolve to the candidate that occupies the highest finishing position after applying this ranking.
If the result of this election isn't known definitively by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "Other".
This market will resolve based on the result of the election, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Brazilian government, specifically the Superior Electoral Court (Tribunal Superior Eleitoral, TSE) (e.g., https://dadosabertos.tse.jus.br/).
Volume
$7,700End Date
Oct 4, 2026Market Opened
Aug 17, 2026, 6:31 AM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...Flávio Bolsonaro’s commanding 94.5% implied probability to finish first in Mato Grosso’s October 4 first-round presidential vote reflects the state’s conservative electorate, strong Liberal Party (PL) organization, and consolidation of right-wing support behind the Jair Bolsonaro-endorsed candidate. Recent August polling from Real Time Big Data showed him at 43% in stimulated first-round scenarios there, well ahead of other contenders, consistent with the region’s agricultural base and past voting patterns favoring the former president’s movement. Party conventions closed in early August with Flávio as the PL nominee and Alfredo Gaspar as running mate, further locking in that alignment ahead of the formal campaign. Lula and minor candidates remain far behind in local surveys. A late scandal, health event, or unexpected surge by regional figures could still alter the outcome before election day, though current conditions point to sustained dominance.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated
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