Jerônimo Rodrigues (PT) seeks reelection against ACM Neto (União Brasil) in the October 4, 2026, Bahia gubernatorial race, with a possible runoff on October 25. Recent polling from July and August shows a technical tie or narrow edges, with first-round intentions often splitting 38-43% between the two main contenders and second-round simulations remaining within margins of error. The incumbent benefits from PT’s extended state dominance and current approval ratings above 50%, while the challenger draws support from Salvador’s urban base and opposition alignment. Minor candidates register below 5%, leaving most undecided or blank voters (typically 10-15%) as the key swing group. Campaign launches in mid-August and recent candidacy rulings have kept focus on the head-to-head dynamic, sustaining tight trader pricing near 50-50.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · UpdatedJerônimo Rodrigues 52%
ACM Neto 49%
Kleber Rosa <1%
José Carlos Aleluia <1%
$118,103 Vol.
$118,103 Vol.
Oct 4, 2026
Jerônimo Rodrigues
52%
ACM Neto
49%
Kleber Rosa
<1%
José Carlos Aleluia
<1%
João Roma
<1%
Bruno Soares Reis
<1%
Rui Costa
<1%
Jerônimo Rodrigues 52%
ACM Neto 49%
Kleber Rosa <1%
José Carlos Aleluia <1%
$118,103 Vol.
$118,103 Vol.
Oct 4, 2026
Jerônimo Rodrigues
$37,601 Vol.
52%
ACM Neto
$40,510 Vol.
49%
Kleber Rosa
$12,814 Vol.
<1%
José Carlos Aleluia
$10,920 Vol.
<1%
João Roma
$5,186 Vol.
<1%
Bruno Soares Reis
$5,325 Vol.
<1%
Rui Costa
$5,747 Vol.
<1%
The Bahia gubernatorial election is scheduled to take place in Brazil on October 4, 2026, with a runoff on October 25, 2026, if no candidate receives a majority of the valid votes in the first round.
This market will resolve according to the candidate who wins this election.
Temporary, interim, or placeholder governors appointed by any means before the specified election will not be considered.
If the result of this election isn't known by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "Other".
This market will resolve based on the result of the election, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Brazilian government, specifically the Superior Electoral Court (Tribunal Superior Eleitoral, TSE) (e.g., www.tse.jus.br/eleicoes/resultados-eleicoes).Jerônimo Rodrigues (PT) seeks reelection against ACM Neto (União Brasil) in the October 4, 2026, Bahia gubernatorial race, with a possible runoff on October 25. Recent polling from July and August shows a technical tie or narrow edges, with first-round intentions often splitting 38-43% between the two main contenders and second-round simulations remaining within margins of error. The incumbent benefits from PT’s extended state dominance and current approval ratings above 50%, while the challenger draws support from Salvador’s urban base and opposition alignment. Minor candidates register below 5%, leaving most undecided or blank voters (typically 10-15%) as the key swing group. Campaign launches in mid-August and recent candidacy rulings have kept focus on the head-to-head dynamic, sustaining tight trader pricing near 50-50.
The Bahia gubernatorial election is scheduled to take place in Brazil on October 4, 2026, with a runoff on October 25, 2026, if no candidate receives a majority of the valid votes in the first round.
This market will resolve according to the candidate who wins this election.
Temporary, interim, or placeholder governors appointed by any means before the specified election will not be considered.
If the result of this election isn't known by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "Other".
This market will resolve based on the result of the election, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Brazilian government, specifically the Superior Electoral Court (Tribunal Superior Eleitoral, TSE) (e.g., www.tse.jus.br/eleicoes/resultados-eleicoes).
This market will resolve according to the candidate who wins this election.
Temporary, interim, or placeholder governors appointed by any means before the specified election will not be considered.
If the result of this election isn't known by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "Other".
This market will resolve based on the result of the election, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Brazilian government, specifically the Superior Electoral Court (Tribunal Superior Eleitoral, TSE) (e.g., www.tse.jus.br/eleicoes/resultados-eleicoes).
Market Opened: Apr 27, 2026, 5:26 PM ET
Volume
$118,103End Date
Oct 4, 2026Market Opened
Apr 27, 2026, 5:26 PM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...The Bahia gubernatorial election is scheduled to take place in Brazil on October 4, 2026, with a runoff on October 25, 2026, if no candidate receives a majority of the valid votes in the first round.
This market will resolve according to the candidate who wins this election.
Temporary, interim, or placeholder governors appointed by any means before the specified election will not be considered.
If the result of this election isn't known by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "Other".
This market will resolve based on the result of the election, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Brazilian government, specifically the Superior Electoral Court (Tribunal Superior Eleitoral, TSE) (e.g., www.tse.jus.br/eleicoes/resultados-eleicoes).Jerônimo Rodrigues (PT) seeks reelection against ACM Neto (União Brasil) in the October 4, 2026, Bahia gubernatorial race, with a possible runoff on October 25. Recent polling from July and August shows a technical tie or narrow edges, with first-round intentions often splitting 38-43% between the two main contenders and second-round simulations remaining within margins of error. The incumbent benefits from PT’s extended state dominance and current approval ratings above 50%, while the challenger draws support from Salvador’s urban base and opposition alignment. Minor candidates register below 5%, leaving most undecided or blank voters (typically 10-15%) as the key swing group. Campaign launches in mid-August and recent candidacy rulings have kept focus on the head-to-head dynamic, sustaining tight trader pricing near 50-50.
The Bahia gubernatorial election is scheduled to take place in Brazil on October 4, 2026, with a runoff on October 25, 2026, if no candidate receives a majority of the valid votes in the first round.
This market will resolve according to the candidate who wins this election.
Temporary, interim, or placeholder governors appointed by any means before the specified election will not be considered.
If the result of this election isn't known by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "Other".
This market will resolve based on the result of the election, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Brazilian government, specifically the Superior Electoral Court (Tribunal Superior Eleitoral, TSE) (e.g., www.tse.jus.br/eleicoes/resultados-eleicoes).
This market will resolve according to the candidate who wins this election.
Temporary, interim, or placeholder governors appointed by any means before the specified election will not be considered.
If the result of this election isn't known by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "Other".
This market will resolve based on the result of the election, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Brazilian government, specifically the Superior Electoral Court (Tribunal Superior Eleitoral, TSE) (e.g., www.tse.jus.br/eleicoes/resultados-eleicoes).
Volume
$118,103End Date
Oct 4, 2026Market Opened
Apr 27, 2026, 5:26 PM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...Jerônimo Rodrigues (PT) seeks reelection against ACM Neto (União Brasil) in the October 4, 2026, Bahia gubernatorial race, with a possible runoff on October 25. Recent polling from July and August shows a technical tie or narrow edges, with first-round intentions often splitting 38-43% between the two main contenders and second-round simulations remaining within margins of error. The incumbent benefits from PT’s extended state dominance and current approval ratings above 50%, while the challenger draws support from Salvador’s urban base and opposition alignment. Minor candidates register below 5%, leaving most undecided or blank voters (typically 10-15%) as the key swing group. Campaign launches in mid-August and recent candidacy rulings have kept focus on the head-to-head dynamic, sustaining tight trader pricing near 50-50.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated
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