The Alagoas Senate race for the two seats remains highly fluid ahead of the October 4 election, with the latest Quaest survey showing Arthur Lira (PP) at 20%, Renan Calheiros (MDB) at 18%, and Marina JHC (PSDB) at 15% in combined first- and second-choice intentions, all within the three-point margin of error amid 19% undecided. High spontaneous non-recognition and potential vote splitting across the multi-candidate field sustain the tight trader consensus on first-place probabilities. Key variables include coalition alignments, regional turnout patterns, and any late shifts in voter preferences between the established MDB and PP-led groups. Scheduled campaign events or additional polling could quickly alter positioning before ballots close.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · UpdatedRenan 49%
Arthur Lira 45%
Marina JHC 7.1%
Dr. Wanderley 1.9%
NEW
NEW
Oct 4, 2026
Renan
49%
Arthur Lira
45%
Marina JHC
7%
Dr. Wanderley
2%
Alexandre Fleming
1%
Davi Davino Filho
<1%
Mariedson
<1%
Renan 49%
Arthur Lira 45%
Marina JHC 7.1%
Dr. Wanderley 1.9%
NEW
NEW
Oct 4, 2026
Renan
$3,208 Vol.
49%
Arthur Lira
$3,163 Vol.
45%
Marina JHC
$341 Vol.
7%
Dr. Wanderley
$419 Vol.
2%
Alexandre Fleming
$348 Vol.
1%
Davi Davino Filho
$263 Vol.
<1%
Mariedson
$358 Vol.
<1%
The Brazilian Federal Senate election for Alagoas is scheduled to take place on October 4, 2026.
This market will resolve according to the candidate who wins the most valid votes of any candidate at the specified election.
Candidates will be primarily ranked by order of valid votes won. If two or more candidates are tied for any position, ties will be broken by alphabetical order of the candidates’ listed full names as they appear in this market. This market will resolve to the candidate that occupies the highest finishing position after applying this ranking.
If the result of this election isn't definitively known by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "Other".
This market will resolve based on the result of the election, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Brazilian government, specifically the Superior Electoral Court (Tribunal Superior Eleitoral, TSE) (e.g., www.tse.jus.br/eleicoes/resultados-eleicoes).The Alagoas Senate race for the two seats remains highly fluid ahead of the October 4 election, with the latest Quaest survey showing Arthur Lira (PP) at 20%, Renan Calheiros (MDB) at 18%, and Marina JHC (PSDB) at 15% in combined first- and second-choice intentions, all within the three-point margin of error amid 19% undecided. High spontaneous non-recognition and potential vote splitting across the multi-candidate field sustain the tight trader consensus on first-place probabilities. Key variables include coalition alignments, regional turnout patterns, and any late shifts in voter preferences between the established MDB and PP-led groups. Scheduled campaign events or additional polling could quickly alter positioning before ballots close.
The Brazilian Federal Senate election for Alagoas is scheduled to take place on October 4, 2026.
This market will resolve according to the candidate who wins the most valid votes of any candidate at the specified election.
Candidates will be primarily ranked by order of valid votes won. If two or more candidates are tied for any position, ties will be broken by alphabetical order of the candidates’ listed full names as they appear in this market. This market will resolve to the candidate that occupies the highest finishing position after applying this ranking.
If the result of this election isn't definitively known by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "Other".
This market will resolve based on the result of the election, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Brazilian government, specifically the Superior Electoral Court (Tribunal Superior Eleitoral, TSE) (e.g., www.tse.jus.br/eleicoes/resultados-eleicoes).
This market will resolve according to the candidate who wins the most valid votes of any candidate at the specified election.
Candidates will be primarily ranked by order of valid votes won. If two or more candidates are tied for any position, ties will be broken by alphabetical order of the candidates’ listed full names as they appear in this market. This market will resolve to the candidate that occupies the highest finishing position after applying this ranking.
If the result of this election isn't definitively known by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "Other".
This market will resolve based on the result of the election, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Brazilian government, specifically the Superior Electoral Court (Tribunal Superior Eleitoral, TSE) (e.g., www.tse.jus.br/eleicoes/resultados-eleicoes).
Market Opened: Aug 17, 2026, 5:51 AM ET
Volume
$8,099End Date
Oct 4, 2026Market Opened
Aug 17, 2026, 5:51 AM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...The Brazilian Federal Senate election for Alagoas is scheduled to take place on October 4, 2026.
This market will resolve according to the candidate who wins the most valid votes of any candidate at the specified election.
Candidates will be primarily ranked by order of valid votes won. If two or more candidates are tied for any position, ties will be broken by alphabetical order of the candidates’ listed full names as they appear in this market. This market will resolve to the candidate that occupies the highest finishing position after applying this ranking.
If the result of this election isn't definitively known by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "Other".
This market will resolve based on the result of the election, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Brazilian government, specifically the Superior Electoral Court (Tribunal Superior Eleitoral, TSE) (e.g., www.tse.jus.br/eleicoes/resultados-eleicoes).The Alagoas Senate race for the two seats remains highly fluid ahead of the October 4 election, with the latest Quaest survey showing Arthur Lira (PP) at 20%, Renan Calheiros (MDB) at 18%, and Marina JHC (PSDB) at 15% in combined first- and second-choice intentions, all within the three-point margin of error amid 19% undecided. High spontaneous non-recognition and potential vote splitting across the multi-candidate field sustain the tight trader consensus on first-place probabilities. Key variables include coalition alignments, regional turnout patterns, and any late shifts in voter preferences between the established MDB and PP-led groups. Scheduled campaign events or additional polling could quickly alter positioning before ballots close.
The Brazilian Federal Senate election for Alagoas is scheduled to take place on October 4, 2026.
This market will resolve according to the candidate who wins the most valid votes of any candidate at the specified election.
Candidates will be primarily ranked by order of valid votes won. If two or more candidates are tied for any position, ties will be broken by alphabetical order of the candidates’ listed full names as they appear in this market. This market will resolve to the candidate that occupies the highest finishing position after applying this ranking.
If the result of this election isn't definitively known by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "Other".
This market will resolve based on the result of the election, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Brazilian government, specifically the Superior Electoral Court (Tribunal Superior Eleitoral, TSE) (e.g., www.tse.jus.br/eleicoes/resultados-eleicoes).
This market will resolve according to the candidate who wins the most valid votes of any candidate at the specified election.
Candidates will be primarily ranked by order of valid votes won. If two or more candidates are tied for any position, ties will be broken by alphabetical order of the candidates’ listed full names as they appear in this market. This market will resolve to the candidate that occupies the highest finishing position after applying this ranking.
If the result of this election isn't definitively known by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "Other".
This market will resolve based on the result of the election, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Brazilian government, specifically the Superior Electoral Court (Tribunal Superior Eleitoral, TSE) (e.g., www.tse.jus.br/eleicoes/resultados-eleicoes).
Volume
$8,099End Date
Oct 4, 2026Market Opened
Aug 17, 2026, 5:51 AM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...The Alagoas Senate race for the two seats remains highly fluid ahead of the October 4 election, with the latest Quaest survey showing Arthur Lira (PP) at 20%, Renan Calheiros (MDB) at 18%, and Marina JHC (PSDB) at 15% in combined first- and second-choice intentions, all within the three-point margin of error amid 19% undecided. High spontaneous non-recognition and potential vote splitting across the multi-candidate field sustain the tight trader consensus on first-place probabilities. Key variables include coalition alignments, regional turnout patterns, and any late shifts in voter preferences between the established MDB and PP-led groups. Scheduled campaign events or additional polling could quickly alter positioning before ballots close.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated
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