JHC holds a 62.5% implied probability in the Alagoas governor race, ahead of Renan Filho at 37%, reflecting trader assessments of the candidate's stronger early polling momentum and mayoral record in Maceió. Recent June surveys showed JHC leading by double digits before later August polling from Quaest tightened the contest to a technical tie (Renan 42%, JHC 40%). The first-round vote on October 4 and potential runoff have drawn attention to coalition structures, with Renan Filho emphasizing prior governance and federal ties while JHC promotes state-level change. Electoral advertising began on August 28, highlighting campaign dynamics in a polarized matchup dominated by these two contenders. Minor candidates like Lenilda Luna remain marginal in current positioning.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · UpdatedJHC 63%
Renan Filho 38%
Márcio Jambo <1%
Lenilda Luna <1%
NEW
NEW
Oct 4, 2026
JHC
63%
Renan Filho
38%
Márcio Jambo
<1%
Lenilda Luna
<1%
JHC 63%
Renan Filho 38%
Márcio Jambo <1%
Lenilda Luna <1%
NEW
NEW
Oct 4, 2026
JHC
$2,125 Vol.
63%
Renan Filho
$2,883 Vol.
38%
Márcio Jambo
$449 Vol.
<1%
Lenilda Luna
$469 Vol.
<1%
The Alagoas gubernatorial election is scheduled to take place in Brazil on October 4, 2026, with a runoff on October 25, 2026, if no candidate receives a majority of the valid votes in the first round.
This market will resolve according to the candidate who wins this election.
Temporary, interim, or placeholder governors appointed by any means before the specified election will not be considered.
If the result of this election isn't known by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "Other".
This market will resolve based on the result of the election, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Brazilian government, specifically the Superior Electoral Court (Tribunal Superior Eleitoral, TSE) (e.g., www.tse.jus.br/eleicoes/resultados-eleicoes).JHC holds a 62.5% implied probability in the Alagoas governor race, ahead of Renan Filho at 37%, reflecting trader assessments of the candidate's stronger early polling momentum and mayoral record in Maceió. Recent June surveys showed JHC leading by double digits before later August polling from Quaest tightened the contest to a technical tie (Renan 42%, JHC 40%). The first-round vote on October 4 and potential runoff have drawn attention to coalition structures, with Renan Filho emphasizing prior governance and federal ties while JHC promotes state-level change. Electoral advertising began on August 28, highlighting campaign dynamics in a polarized matchup dominated by these two contenders. Minor candidates like Lenilda Luna remain marginal in current positioning.
The Alagoas gubernatorial election is scheduled to take place in Brazil on October 4, 2026, with a runoff on October 25, 2026, if no candidate receives a majority of the valid votes in the first round.
This market will resolve according to the candidate who wins this election.
Temporary, interim, or placeholder governors appointed by any means before the specified election will not be considered.
If the result of this election isn't known by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "Other".
This market will resolve based on the result of the election, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Brazilian government, specifically the Superior Electoral Court (Tribunal Superior Eleitoral, TSE) (e.g., www.tse.jus.br/eleicoes/resultados-eleicoes).
This market will resolve according to the candidate who wins this election.
Temporary, interim, or placeholder governors appointed by any means before the specified election will not be considered.
If the result of this election isn't known by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "Other".
This market will resolve based on the result of the election, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Brazilian government, specifically the Superior Electoral Court (Tribunal Superior Eleitoral, TSE) (e.g., www.tse.jus.br/eleicoes/resultados-eleicoes).
Market Opened: Aug 17, 2026, 5:27 AM ET
Volume
$5,926End Date
Oct 4, 2026Market Opened
Aug 17, 2026, 5:27 AM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...The Alagoas gubernatorial election is scheduled to take place in Brazil on October 4, 2026, with a runoff on October 25, 2026, if no candidate receives a majority of the valid votes in the first round.
This market will resolve according to the candidate who wins this election.
Temporary, interim, or placeholder governors appointed by any means before the specified election will not be considered.
If the result of this election isn't known by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "Other".
This market will resolve based on the result of the election, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Brazilian government, specifically the Superior Electoral Court (Tribunal Superior Eleitoral, TSE) (e.g., www.tse.jus.br/eleicoes/resultados-eleicoes).JHC holds a 62.5% implied probability in the Alagoas governor race, ahead of Renan Filho at 37%, reflecting trader assessments of the candidate's stronger early polling momentum and mayoral record in Maceió. Recent June surveys showed JHC leading by double digits before later August polling from Quaest tightened the contest to a technical tie (Renan 42%, JHC 40%). The first-round vote on October 4 and potential runoff have drawn attention to coalition structures, with Renan Filho emphasizing prior governance and federal ties while JHC promotes state-level change. Electoral advertising began on August 28, highlighting campaign dynamics in a polarized matchup dominated by these two contenders. Minor candidates like Lenilda Luna remain marginal in current positioning.
The Alagoas gubernatorial election is scheduled to take place in Brazil on October 4, 2026, with a runoff on October 25, 2026, if no candidate receives a majority of the valid votes in the first round.
This market will resolve according to the candidate who wins this election.
Temporary, interim, or placeholder governors appointed by any means before the specified election will not be considered.
If the result of this election isn't known by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "Other".
This market will resolve based on the result of the election, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Brazilian government, specifically the Superior Electoral Court (Tribunal Superior Eleitoral, TSE) (e.g., www.tse.jus.br/eleicoes/resultados-eleicoes).
This market will resolve according to the candidate who wins this election.
Temporary, interim, or placeholder governors appointed by any means before the specified election will not be considered.
If the result of this election isn't known by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "Other".
This market will resolve based on the result of the election, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Brazilian government, specifically the Superior Electoral Court (Tribunal Superior Eleitoral, TSE) (e.g., www.tse.jus.br/eleicoes/resultados-eleicoes).
Volume
$5,926End Date
Oct 4, 2026Market Opened
Aug 17, 2026, 5:27 AM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...JHC holds a 62.5% implied probability in the Alagoas governor race, ahead of Renan Filho at 37%, reflecting trader assessments of the candidate's stronger early polling momentum and mayoral record in Maceió. Recent June surveys showed JHC leading by double digits before later August polling from Quaest tightened the contest to a technical tie (Renan 42%, JHC 40%). The first-round vote on October 4 and potential runoff have drawn attention to coalition structures, with Renan Filho emphasizing prior governance and federal ties while JHC promotes state-level change. Electoral advertising began on August 28, highlighting campaign dynamics in a polarized matchup dominated by these two contenders. Minor candidates like Lenilda Luna remain marginal in current positioning.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated
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