Recent polling from late August 2026 shows a tight contest for São Paulo’s two Senate seats, with Guilherme Derrite, Marina Silva, and Simone Tebet clustered near 11-12% and André do Prado close behind at 7-10%, inside margins of error across Quaest, Datafolha, and Real Time surveys. High undecided shares (14-27%) and blank/null intentions (around 18%) sustain uncertainty over final ordering. The PT-PSB alliance pairing Marina and Tebet with Fernando Haddad’s gubernatorial bid contrasts with the center-right slate of Derrite and Prado backed by Governor Tarcísio de Freitas, while Ricardo Salles runs more independently. Free airtime beginning August 28 and ongoing interior campaigning could shift preferences among the large undecided bloc before October voting. Trader pricing for second place reflects this narrow spread among the four leading names.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · UpdatedSimone Tebet 29%
André do Prado 24.6%
Marina Silva 25%
Guilherme Derrite 16%
$38,361 Vol.
$38,361 Vol.
Oct 4, 2026
Simone Tebet
29%
André do Prado
25%
Marina Silva
25%
Guilherme Derrite
16%
Salles
9%
Ednelson Cesaretti
<1%
Geraldo Rufino
<1%
Marcio Alves
<1%
Petter Maahs
<1%
Weller Gonçalves
<1%
William Teixeira
<1%
Dra. Eliana Ferreira
<1%
Maíra de Souza
<1%
Soninha Francine
<1%
Simone Tebet 29%
André do Prado 24.6%
Marina Silva 25%
Guilherme Derrite 16%
$38,361 Vol.
$38,361 Vol.
Oct 4, 2026
Simone Tebet
$9,064 Vol.
29%
André do Prado
$3,997 Vol.
25%
Marina Silva
$9,678 Vol.
25%
Guilherme Derrite
$5,842 Vol.
16%
Salles
$4,536 Vol.
9%
Ednelson Cesaretti
$580 Vol.
<1%
Geraldo Rufino
$528 Vol.
<1%
Marcio Alves
$408 Vol.
<1%
Petter Maahs
$757 Vol.
<1%
Weller Gonçalves
$813 Vol.
<1%
William Teixeira
$686 Vol.
<1%
Dra. Eliana Ferreira
$457 Vol.
<1%
Maíra de Souza
$406 Vol.
<1%
Soninha Francine
$608 Vol.
<1%
The Brazilian Federal Senate election for São Paulo is scheduled to take place on October 4, 2026.
This market will resolve according to the candidate who wins the second-most valid votes of any candidate at the specified election.
Candidates will be primarily ranked by order of valid votes won. If two or more candidates are tied for any position, ties will be broken by alphabetical order of the candidates’ listed full names as they appear in this market. This market will resolve to the candidate that occupies the second-highest finishing position after applying this ranking.
If the result of this election isn't definitively known by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "Other".
This market will resolve based on the result of the election, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Brazilian government, specifically the Superior Electoral Court (Tribunal Superior Eleitoral, TSE) (e.g., www.tse.jus.br/eleicoes/resultados-eleicoes).Recent polling from late August 2026 shows a tight contest for São Paulo’s two Senate seats, with Guilherme Derrite, Marina Silva, and Simone Tebet clustered near 11-12% and André do Prado close behind at 7-10%, inside margins of error across Quaest, Datafolha, and Real Time surveys. High undecided shares (14-27%) and blank/null intentions (around 18%) sustain uncertainty over final ordering. The PT-PSB alliance pairing Marina and Tebet with Fernando Haddad’s gubernatorial bid contrasts with the center-right slate of Derrite and Prado backed by Governor Tarcísio de Freitas, while Ricardo Salles runs more independently. Free airtime beginning August 28 and ongoing interior campaigning could shift preferences among the large undecided bloc before October voting. Trader pricing for second place reflects this narrow spread among the four leading names.
The Brazilian Federal Senate election for São Paulo is scheduled to take place on October 4, 2026.
This market will resolve according to the candidate who wins the second-most valid votes of any candidate at the specified election.
Candidates will be primarily ranked by order of valid votes won. If two or more candidates are tied for any position, ties will be broken by alphabetical order of the candidates’ listed full names as they appear in this market. This market will resolve to the candidate that occupies the second-highest finishing position after applying this ranking.
If the result of this election isn't definitively known by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "Other".
This market will resolve based on the result of the election, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Brazilian government, specifically the Superior Electoral Court (Tribunal Superior Eleitoral, TSE) (e.g., www.tse.jus.br/eleicoes/resultados-eleicoes).
This market will resolve according to the candidate who wins the second-most valid votes of any candidate at the specified election.
Candidates will be primarily ranked by order of valid votes won. If two or more candidates are tied for any position, ties will be broken by alphabetical order of the candidates’ listed full names as they appear in this market. This market will resolve to the candidate that occupies the second-highest finishing position after applying this ranking.
If the result of this election isn't definitively known by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "Other".
This market will resolve based on the result of the election, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Brazilian government, specifically the Superior Electoral Court (Tribunal Superior Eleitoral, TSE) (e.g., www.tse.jus.br/eleicoes/resultados-eleicoes).
Market Opened: Aug 17, 2026, 6:16 AM ET
Volume
$38,361End Date
Oct 4, 2026Market Opened
Aug 17, 2026, 6:16 AM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...The Brazilian Federal Senate election for São Paulo is scheduled to take place on October 4, 2026.
This market will resolve according to the candidate who wins the second-most valid votes of any candidate at the specified election.
Candidates will be primarily ranked by order of valid votes won. If two or more candidates are tied for any position, ties will be broken by alphabetical order of the candidates’ listed full names as they appear in this market. This market will resolve to the candidate that occupies the second-highest finishing position after applying this ranking.
If the result of this election isn't definitively known by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "Other".
This market will resolve based on the result of the election, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Brazilian government, specifically the Superior Electoral Court (Tribunal Superior Eleitoral, TSE) (e.g., www.tse.jus.br/eleicoes/resultados-eleicoes).Recent polling from late August 2026 shows a tight contest for São Paulo’s two Senate seats, with Guilherme Derrite, Marina Silva, and Simone Tebet clustered near 11-12% and André do Prado close behind at 7-10%, inside margins of error across Quaest, Datafolha, and Real Time surveys. High undecided shares (14-27%) and blank/null intentions (around 18%) sustain uncertainty over final ordering. The PT-PSB alliance pairing Marina and Tebet with Fernando Haddad’s gubernatorial bid contrasts with the center-right slate of Derrite and Prado backed by Governor Tarcísio de Freitas, while Ricardo Salles runs more independently. Free airtime beginning August 28 and ongoing interior campaigning could shift preferences among the large undecided bloc before October voting. Trader pricing for second place reflects this narrow spread among the four leading names.
The Brazilian Federal Senate election for São Paulo is scheduled to take place on October 4, 2026.
This market will resolve according to the candidate who wins the second-most valid votes of any candidate at the specified election.
Candidates will be primarily ranked by order of valid votes won. If two or more candidates are tied for any position, ties will be broken by alphabetical order of the candidates’ listed full names as they appear in this market. This market will resolve to the candidate that occupies the second-highest finishing position after applying this ranking.
If the result of this election isn't definitively known by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "Other".
This market will resolve based on the result of the election, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Brazilian government, specifically the Superior Electoral Court (Tribunal Superior Eleitoral, TSE) (e.g., www.tse.jus.br/eleicoes/resultados-eleicoes).
This market will resolve according to the candidate who wins the second-most valid votes of any candidate at the specified election.
Candidates will be primarily ranked by order of valid votes won. If two or more candidates are tied for any position, ties will be broken by alphabetical order of the candidates’ listed full names as they appear in this market. This market will resolve to the candidate that occupies the second-highest finishing position after applying this ranking.
If the result of this election isn't definitively known by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "Other".
This market will resolve based on the result of the election, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Brazilian government, specifically the Superior Electoral Court (Tribunal Superior Eleitoral, TSE) (e.g., www.tse.jus.br/eleicoes/resultados-eleicoes).
Volume
$38,361End Date
Oct 4, 2026Market Opened
Aug 17, 2026, 6:16 AM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...Recent polling from late August 2026 shows a tight contest for São Paulo’s two Senate seats, with Guilherme Derrite, Marina Silva, and Simone Tebet clustered near 11-12% and André do Prado close behind at 7-10%, inside margins of error across Quaest, Datafolha, and Real Time surveys. High undecided shares (14-27%) and blank/null intentions (around 18%) sustain uncertainty over final ordering. The PT-PSB alliance pairing Marina and Tebet with Fernando Haddad’s gubernatorial bid contrasts with the center-right slate of Derrite and Prado backed by Governor Tarcísio de Freitas, while Ricardo Salles runs more independently. Free airtime beginning August 28 and ongoing interior campaigning could shift preferences among the large undecided bloc before October voting. Trader pricing for second place reflects this narrow spread among the four leading names.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated
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