Jorginho Mello, the incumbent Liberal Party governor of Santa Catarina, holds a commanding lead in the October 2026 election race. Recent July polls from institutes including Neokemp and IPC show him at 52-55% in first-round scenarios, more than 30 points ahead of main challenger João Rodrigues (PSD) and well clear of smaller candidates such as Gelson Merísio and Décio Lima. His position stems from strong performance since the 2022 landslide victory, party consolidation at the August 2026 PL convention naming Adriano Silva as running mate, and broad support within the state's conservative base. Traders price in a high probability of first-round victory, though shifts in undecided voters or unforeseen campaign events before October could still narrow margins.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · UpdatedJorginho Mello 96.0%
João Rodrigues 2.8%
Marcelo Brigadeiro 1.4%
Décio Lima <1%
$116,114 Vol.
$116,114 Vol.
Oct 4, 2026
Jorginho Mello
96%
João Rodrigues
3%
Marcelo Brigadeiro
1%
Décio Lima
<1%
Afrânio Boppré
<1%
Marcos Vieira
<1%
Adriano Silva
<1%
Gelson Merisio
<1%
Jorginho Mello 96.0%
João Rodrigues 2.8%
Marcelo Brigadeiro 1.4%
Décio Lima <1%
$116,114 Vol.
$116,114 Vol.
Oct 4, 2026
Jorginho Mello
$27,232 Vol.
96%
João Rodrigues
$2,659 Vol.
3%
Marcelo Brigadeiro
$15,346 Vol.
1%
Décio Lima
$63,791 Vol.
<1%
Afrânio Boppré
$2,031 Vol.
<1%
Marcos Vieira
$1,704 Vol.
<1%
Adriano Silva
$1,494 Vol.
<1%
Gelson Merisio
$1,856 Vol.
<1%
The Santa Catarina gubernatorial election is scheduled to take place in Brazil on October 4, 2026, with a runoff on October 25, 2026, if no candidate receives a majority of the valid votes in the first round.
This market will resolve according to the candidate who wins this election.
Temporary, interim, or placeholder governors appointed by any means before the specified election will not be considered.
If the result of this election isn't known by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "Other".
This market will resolve based on the result of the election, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Brazilian government, specifically the Superior Electoral Court (Tribunal Superior Eleitoral, TSE) (e.g., www.tse.jus.br/eleicoes/resultados-eleicoes).Jorginho Mello, the incumbent Liberal Party governor of Santa Catarina, holds a commanding lead in the October 2026 election race. Recent July polls from institutes including Neokemp and IPC show him at 52-55% in first-round scenarios, more than 30 points ahead of main challenger João Rodrigues (PSD) and well clear of smaller candidates such as Gelson Merísio and Décio Lima. His position stems from strong performance since the 2022 landslide victory, party consolidation at the August 2026 PL convention naming Adriano Silva as running mate, and broad support within the state's conservative base. Traders price in a high probability of first-round victory, though shifts in undecided voters or unforeseen campaign events before October could still narrow margins.
The Santa Catarina gubernatorial election is scheduled to take place in Brazil on October 4, 2026, with a runoff on October 25, 2026, if no candidate receives a majority of the valid votes in the first round.
This market will resolve according to the candidate who wins this election.
Temporary, interim, or placeholder governors appointed by any means before the specified election will not be considered.
If the result of this election isn't known by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "Other".
This market will resolve based on the result of the election, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Brazilian government, specifically the Superior Electoral Court (Tribunal Superior Eleitoral, TSE) (e.g., www.tse.jus.br/eleicoes/resultados-eleicoes).
This market will resolve according to the candidate who wins this election.
Temporary, interim, or placeholder governors appointed by any means before the specified election will not be considered.
If the result of this election isn't known by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "Other".
This market will resolve based on the result of the election, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Brazilian government, specifically the Superior Electoral Court (Tribunal Superior Eleitoral, TSE) (e.g., www.tse.jus.br/eleicoes/resultados-eleicoes).
Market Opened: Jun 9, 2026, 10:21 PM ET
Volume
$116,114End Date
Oct 4, 2026Market Opened
Jun 9, 2026, 10:21 PM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...The Santa Catarina gubernatorial election is scheduled to take place in Brazil on October 4, 2026, with a runoff on October 25, 2026, if no candidate receives a majority of the valid votes in the first round.
This market will resolve according to the candidate who wins this election.
Temporary, interim, or placeholder governors appointed by any means before the specified election will not be considered.
If the result of this election isn't known by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "Other".
This market will resolve based on the result of the election, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Brazilian government, specifically the Superior Electoral Court (Tribunal Superior Eleitoral, TSE) (e.g., www.tse.jus.br/eleicoes/resultados-eleicoes).Jorginho Mello, the incumbent Liberal Party governor of Santa Catarina, holds a commanding lead in the October 2026 election race. Recent July polls from institutes including Neokemp and IPC show him at 52-55% in first-round scenarios, more than 30 points ahead of main challenger João Rodrigues (PSD) and well clear of smaller candidates such as Gelson Merísio and Décio Lima. His position stems from strong performance since the 2022 landslide victory, party consolidation at the August 2026 PL convention naming Adriano Silva as running mate, and broad support within the state's conservative base. Traders price in a high probability of first-round victory, though shifts in undecided voters or unforeseen campaign events before October could still narrow margins.
The Santa Catarina gubernatorial election is scheduled to take place in Brazil on October 4, 2026, with a runoff on October 25, 2026, if no candidate receives a majority of the valid votes in the first round.
This market will resolve according to the candidate who wins this election.
Temporary, interim, or placeholder governors appointed by any means before the specified election will not be considered.
If the result of this election isn't known by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "Other".
This market will resolve based on the result of the election, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Brazilian government, specifically the Superior Electoral Court (Tribunal Superior Eleitoral, TSE) (e.g., www.tse.jus.br/eleicoes/resultados-eleicoes).
This market will resolve according to the candidate who wins this election.
Temporary, interim, or placeholder governors appointed by any means before the specified election will not be considered.
If the result of this election isn't known by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "Other".
This market will resolve based on the result of the election, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Brazilian government, specifically the Superior Electoral Court (Tribunal Superior Eleitoral, TSE) (e.g., www.tse.jus.br/eleicoes/resultados-eleicoes).
Volume
$116,114End Date
Oct 4, 2026Market Opened
Jun 9, 2026, 10:21 PM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...Jorginho Mello, the incumbent Liberal Party governor of Santa Catarina, holds a commanding lead in the October 2026 election race. Recent July polls from institutes including Neokemp and IPC show him at 52-55% in first-round scenarios, more than 30 points ahead of main challenger João Rodrigues (PSD) and well clear of smaller candidates such as Gelson Merísio and Décio Lima. His position stems from strong performance since the 2022 landslide victory, party consolidation at the August 2026 PL convention naming Adriano Silva as running mate, and broad support within the state's conservative base. Traders price in a high probability of first-round victory, though shifts in undecided voters or unforeseen campaign events before October could still narrow margins.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated
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