Recent observational data from NSIDC, OSI SAF, and JAXA place 2026 Arctic sea ice extent near 7 million km² in mid-August, ranking 8th–12th lowest on record, with a notable slowdown in daily losses after late July. This trajectory, combined with exceptionally low ice on the Atlantic margin (Barents, Kara, Greenland Seas) offset by slower retreat and temporary stabilization in the Chukchi and Beaufort Seas, underpins trader consensus around a September minimum of 4.4–4.8 million km². Regional weather patterns, including repeated cyclones and variable air temperatures, introduce uncertainty in final melt rates, while post-2007 climatology favors outcomes in this narrow band over extremes. New forecast updates and extent measurements through early September will refine probabilities.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · UpdatedMin Arctic sea ice extent this summer?
Min Arctic sea ice extent this summer?
4.4-4.6m sq km 33.4%
4.6-4.8m sq km 29.7%
4.2-4.4m sq km 17.9%
<4m sq km 8%
$68,985 Vol.
$68,985 Vol.
Sep 30, 2026
<4m sq km
8%
4.0-4.2m sq km
6%
4.2-4.4m sq km
18%
4.4-4.6m sq km
33%
4.6-4.8m sq km
30%
4.8-5m sq km
5%
5m+ sq km
8%
4.4-4.6m sq km 33.4%
4.6-4.8m sq km 29.7%
4.2-4.4m sq km 17.9%
<4m sq km 8%
$68,985 Vol.
$68,985 Vol.
Sep 30, 2026
<4m sq km
$30,910 Vol.
8%
4.0-4.2m sq km
$6,738 Vol.
6%
4.2-4.4m sq km
$3,116 Vol.
18%
4.4-4.6m sq km
$3,154 Vol.
33%
4.6-4.8m sq km
$6,969 Vol.
30%
4.8-5m sq km
$3,595 Vol.
5%
5m+ sq km
$14,503 Vol.
8%
This market will resolve according to the minimum Arctic sea ice extent for all days between August 1, 2026 and October 1, 2026, as published by the National Snow and Ice Data Center.
This market will remain open until data has been published for October 1, 2026, at which point it will resolve immediately. Any revisions to sea ice extent recorded after data is published for October 1, 2026 will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to thousands of square kilometers (e.g. 4.255 million sq km). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
The resolution source for this market will be information from the National Snow and Ice Data Center, specifically the minimum value recorded for any day between August 1, 2026 and October 1, 2026 in the “NH-Daily-Extent” tab of the “Sea Ice Index Daily Extent” data set, available at https://nsidc.org/sea-ice-today/sea-ice-tools. If this resolution source becomes unavailable, another resolution source will be chosen.Recent observational data from NSIDC, OSI SAF, and JAXA place 2026 Arctic sea ice extent near 7 million km² in mid-August, ranking 8th–12th lowest on record, with a notable slowdown in daily losses after late July. This trajectory, combined with exceptionally low ice on the Atlantic margin (Barents, Kara, Greenland Seas) offset by slower retreat and temporary stabilization in the Chukchi and Beaufort Seas, underpins trader consensus around a September minimum of 4.4–4.8 million km². Regional weather patterns, including repeated cyclones and variable air temperatures, introduce uncertainty in final melt rates, while post-2007 climatology favors outcomes in this narrow band over extremes. New forecast updates and extent measurements through early September will refine probabilities.
This market will resolve according to the minimum Arctic sea ice extent for all days between August 1, 2026 and October 1, 2026, as published by the National Snow and Ice Data Center.
This market will remain open until data has been published for October 1, 2026, at which point it will resolve immediately. Any revisions to sea ice extent recorded after data is published for October 1, 2026 will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to thousands of square kilometers (e.g. 4.255 million sq km). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
The resolution source for this market will be information from the National Snow and Ice Data Center, specifically the minimum value recorded for any day between August 1, 2026 and October 1, 2026 in the “NH-Daily-Extent” tab of the “Sea Ice Index Daily Extent” data set, available at https://nsidc.org/sea-ice-today/sea-ice-tools. If this resolution source becomes unavailable, another resolution source will be chosen.
This market will remain open until data has been published for October 1, 2026, at which point it will resolve immediately. Any revisions to sea ice extent recorded after data is published for October 1, 2026 will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to thousands of square kilometers (e.g. 4.255 million sq km). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
The resolution source for this market will be information from the National Snow and Ice Data Center, specifically the minimum value recorded for any day between August 1, 2026 and October 1, 2026 in the “NH-Daily-Extent” tab of the “Sea Ice Index Daily Extent” data set, available at https://nsidc.org/sea-ice-today/sea-ice-tools. If this resolution source becomes unavailable, another resolution source will be chosen.
Market Opened: Nov 20, 2025, 6:43 PM ET
Volume
$68,985End Date
Oct 1, 2026Market Opened
Nov 20, 2025, 6:43 PM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...This market will resolve according to the minimum Arctic sea ice extent for all days between August 1, 2026 and October 1, 2026, as published by the National Snow and Ice Data Center.
This market will remain open until data has been published for October 1, 2026, at which point it will resolve immediately. Any revisions to sea ice extent recorded after data is published for October 1, 2026 will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to thousands of square kilometers (e.g. 4.255 million sq km). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
The resolution source for this market will be information from the National Snow and Ice Data Center, specifically the minimum value recorded for any day between August 1, 2026 and October 1, 2026 in the “NH-Daily-Extent” tab of the “Sea Ice Index Daily Extent” data set, available at https://nsidc.org/sea-ice-today/sea-ice-tools. If this resolution source becomes unavailable, another resolution source will be chosen.Recent observational data from NSIDC, OSI SAF, and JAXA place 2026 Arctic sea ice extent near 7 million km² in mid-August, ranking 8th–12th lowest on record, with a notable slowdown in daily losses after late July. This trajectory, combined with exceptionally low ice on the Atlantic margin (Barents, Kara, Greenland Seas) offset by slower retreat and temporary stabilization in the Chukchi and Beaufort Seas, underpins trader consensus around a September minimum of 4.4–4.8 million km². Regional weather patterns, including repeated cyclones and variable air temperatures, introduce uncertainty in final melt rates, while post-2007 climatology favors outcomes in this narrow band over extremes. New forecast updates and extent measurements through early September will refine probabilities.
This market will resolve according to the minimum Arctic sea ice extent for all days between August 1, 2026 and October 1, 2026, as published by the National Snow and Ice Data Center.
This market will remain open until data has been published for October 1, 2026, at which point it will resolve immediately. Any revisions to sea ice extent recorded after data is published for October 1, 2026 will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to thousands of square kilometers (e.g. 4.255 million sq km). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
The resolution source for this market will be information from the National Snow and Ice Data Center, specifically the minimum value recorded for any day between August 1, 2026 and October 1, 2026 in the “NH-Daily-Extent” tab of the “Sea Ice Index Daily Extent” data set, available at https://nsidc.org/sea-ice-today/sea-ice-tools. If this resolution source becomes unavailable, another resolution source will be chosen.
This market will remain open until data has been published for October 1, 2026, at which point it will resolve immediately. Any revisions to sea ice extent recorded after data is published for October 1, 2026 will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to thousands of square kilometers (e.g. 4.255 million sq km). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
The resolution source for this market will be information from the National Snow and Ice Data Center, specifically the minimum value recorded for any day between August 1, 2026 and October 1, 2026 in the “NH-Daily-Extent” tab of the “Sea Ice Index Daily Extent” data set, available at https://nsidc.org/sea-ice-today/sea-ice-tools. If this resolution source becomes unavailable, another resolution source will be chosen.
Volume
$68,985End Date
Oct 1, 2026Market Opened
Nov 20, 2025, 6:43 PM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...Recent observational data from NSIDC, OSI SAF, and JAXA place 2026 Arctic sea ice extent near 7 million km² in mid-August, ranking 8th–12th lowest on record, with a notable slowdown in daily losses after late July. This trajectory, combined with exceptionally low ice on the Atlantic margin (Barents, Kara, Greenland Seas) offset by slower retreat and temporary stabilization in the Chukchi and Beaufort Seas, underpins trader consensus around a September minimum of 4.4–4.8 million km². Regional weather patterns, including repeated cyclones and variable air temperatures, introduce uncertainty in final melt rates, while post-2007 climatology favors outcomes in this narrow band over extremes. New forecast updates and extent measurements through early September will refine probabilities.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated
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