Eduardo Riedel maintains a commanding 92% implied probability in the Mato Grosso do Sul gubernatorial race due to his incumbency advantage, approval ratings near 70%, and a broad nine-party center-right coalition formalized at early August conventions that includes explicit PL backing and José Carlos Barbosa as running mate. This alliance has minimized opposition fragmentation among the remaining registered contenders, with Delcídio Amaral as the nearest alternative at low single digits. The campaign period opened August 16, positioning Riedel favorably ahead of broadcast advertising and debates. Trader consensus reflects these structural factors, though shifts remain possible from debate performances, coalition dynamics, or turnout changes in the October 4 first round.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · UpdatedEduardo Riedel 92%
Economista Renato Gomes 1.3%
João Henrique Catan <1%
Fábio Trad <1%
NEW
NEW
Oct 4, 2026
Eduardo Riedel
92%
Economista Renato Gomes
1%
João Henrique Catan
1%
Fábio Trad
1%
Jeferson Bezerra
<1%
Delcidio Amaral
<1%
Daniel Lemes
<1%
Lucien Rezende
<1%
Eduardo Riedel 92%
Economista Renato Gomes 1.3%
João Henrique Catan <1%
Fábio Trad <1%
NEW
NEW
Oct 4, 2026
Eduardo Riedel
$2,873 Vol.
92%
Economista Renato Gomes
$247 Vol.
1%
João Henrique Catan
$262 Vol.
1%
Fábio Trad
$299 Vol.
1%
Jeferson Bezerra
$379 Vol.
<1%
Delcidio Amaral
$351 Vol.
<1%
Daniel Lemes
$265 Vol.
<1%
Lucien Rezende
$365 Vol.
<1%
The Mato Grosso do Sul gubernatorial election is scheduled to take place in Brazil on October 4, 2026, with a runoff on October 25, 2026, if no candidate receives a majority of the valid votes in the first round.
This market will resolve according to the candidate who wins this election.
Temporary, interim, or placeholder governors appointed by any means before the specified election will not be considered.
If the result of this election isn't known by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "Other".
This market will resolve based on the result of the election, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Brazilian government, specifically the Superior Electoral Court (Tribunal Superior Eleitoral, TSE) (e.g., www.tse.jus.br/eleicoes/resultados-eleicoes).Eduardo Riedel maintains a commanding 92% implied probability in the Mato Grosso do Sul gubernatorial race due to his incumbency advantage, approval ratings near 70%, and a broad nine-party center-right coalition formalized at early August conventions that includes explicit PL backing and José Carlos Barbosa as running mate. This alliance has minimized opposition fragmentation among the remaining registered contenders, with Delcídio Amaral as the nearest alternative at low single digits. The campaign period opened August 16, positioning Riedel favorably ahead of broadcast advertising and debates. Trader consensus reflects these structural factors, though shifts remain possible from debate performances, coalition dynamics, or turnout changes in the October 4 first round.
The Mato Grosso do Sul gubernatorial election is scheduled to take place in Brazil on October 4, 2026, with a runoff on October 25, 2026, if no candidate receives a majority of the valid votes in the first round.
This market will resolve according to the candidate who wins this election.
Temporary, interim, or placeholder governors appointed by any means before the specified election will not be considered.
If the result of this election isn't known by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "Other".
This market will resolve based on the result of the election, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Brazilian government, specifically the Superior Electoral Court (Tribunal Superior Eleitoral, TSE) (e.g., www.tse.jus.br/eleicoes/resultados-eleicoes).
This market will resolve according to the candidate who wins this election.
Temporary, interim, or placeholder governors appointed by any means before the specified election will not be considered.
If the result of this election isn't known by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "Other".
This market will resolve based on the result of the election, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Brazilian government, specifically the Superior Electoral Court (Tribunal Superior Eleitoral, TSE) (e.g., www.tse.jus.br/eleicoes/resultados-eleicoes).
Market Opened: Aug 17, 2026, 5:33 AM ET
Volume
$5,041End Date
Oct 4, 2026Market Opened
Aug 17, 2026, 5:33 AM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...The Mato Grosso do Sul gubernatorial election is scheduled to take place in Brazil on October 4, 2026, with a runoff on October 25, 2026, if no candidate receives a majority of the valid votes in the first round.
This market will resolve according to the candidate who wins this election.
Temporary, interim, or placeholder governors appointed by any means before the specified election will not be considered.
If the result of this election isn't known by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "Other".
This market will resolve based on the result of the election, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Brazilian government, specifically the Superior Electoral Court (Tribunal Superior Eleitoral, TSE) (e.g., www.tse.jus.br/eleicoes/resultados-eleicoes).Eduardo Riedel maintains a commanding 92% implied probability in the Mato Grosso do Sul gubernatorial race due to his incumbency advantage, approval ratings near 70%, and a broad nine-party center-right coalition formalized at early August conventions that includes explicit PL backing and José Carlos Barbosa as running mate. This alliance has minimized opposition fragmentation among the remaining registered contenders, with Delcídio Amaral as the nearest alternative at low single digits. The campaign period opened August 16, positioning Riedel favorably ahead of broadcast advertising and debates. Trader consensus reflects these structural factors, though shifts remain possible from debate performances, coalition dynamics, or turnout changes in the October 4 first round.
The Mato Grosso do Sul gubernatorial election is scheduled to take place in Brazil on October 4, 2026, with a runoff on October 25, 2026, if no candidate receives a majority of the valid votes in the first round.
This market will resolve according to the candidate who wins this election.
Temporary, interim, or placeholder governors appointed by any means before the specified election will not be considered.
If the result of this election isn't known by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "Other".
This market will resolve based on the result of the election, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Brazilian government, specifically the Superior Electoral Court (Tribunal Superior Eleitoral, TSE) (e.g., www.tse.jus.br/eleicoes/resultados-eleicoes).
This market will resolve according to the candidate who wins this election.
Temporary, interim, or placeholder governors appointed by any means before the specified election will not be considered.
If the result of this election isn't known by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "Other".
This market will resolve based on the result of the election, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Brazilian government, specifically the Superior Electoral Court (Tribunal Superior Eleitoral, TSE) (e.g., www.tse.jus.br/eleicoes/resultados-eleicoes).
Volume
$5,041End Date
Oct 4, 2026Market Opened
Aug 17, 2026, 5:33 AM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...Eduardo Riedel maintains a commanding 92% implied probability in the Mato Grosso do Sul gubernatorial race due to his incumbency advantage, approval ratings near 70%, and a broad nine-party center-right coalition formalized at early August conventions that includes explicit PL backing and José Carlos Barbosa as running mate. This alliance has minimized opposition fragmentation among the remaining registered contenders, with Delcídio Amaral as the nearest alternative at low single digits. The campaign period opened August 16, positioning Riedel favorably ahead of broadcast advertising and debates. Trader consensus reflects these structural factors, though shifts remain possible from debate performances, coalition dynamics, or turnout changes in the October 4 first round.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated
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