Eduardo Braide (PSD), former mayor of São Luís, holds the strongest position in the 2026 Maranhão gubernatorial race, with recent Quaest polling showing him at 44% in the first round against Orleans Brandão (MDB) at 25% and Felipe Camarão (PT) at 6%. Braide’s lead has widened since earlier surveys, driven by higher name recognition and voter consolidation as the October 4 first-round vote approaches. Brandão, nephew of incumbent governor Carlos Brandão, benefits from state-level alliances and MDB infrastructure but trails significantly in current estimates. Minor candidates and write-ins register minimal support. Trader consensus, reflected in market pricing, aligns with polling momentum and historical patterns for incumbency-challenger dynamics in Brazilian state elections, though 17% undecided voters and a possible October 25 runoff introduce residual uncertainty ahead of final registration confirmations by the TSE.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · UpdatedEduardo Braide 68%
Orleans Brandão 31%
Felipe Camarão <1%
André Luís <1%
$66,441 Vol.
$66,441 Vol.
Oct 4, 2026
Eduardo Braide
68%
Orleans Brandão
31%
Felipe Camarão
1%
André Luís
<1%
Enilton Rodrigues
<1%
Lahesio Bonfim
<1%
Eduardo Braide 68%
Orleans Brandão 31%
Felipe Camarão <1%
André Luís <1%
$66,441 Vol.
$66,441 Vol.
Oct 4, 2026
Eduardo Braide
$32,527 Vol.
68%
Orleans Brandão
$14,005 Vol.
31%
Felipe Camarão
$4,967 Vol.
1%
André Luís
$5,716 Vol.
<1%
Enilton Rodrigues
$4,924 Vol.
<1%
Lahesio Bonfim
$4,303 Vol.
<1%
The Maranhão gubernatorial election is scheduled to take place in Brazil on October 4, 2026, with a runoff on October 25, 2026, if no candidate receives a majority of the valid votes in the first round.
This market will resolve according to the candidate who wins this election.
Temporary, interim, or placeholder governors appointed by any means before the specified election will not be considered.
If the result of this election isn't known by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "Other".
This market will resolve based on the result of the election, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Brazilian government, specifically the Superior Electoral Court (Tribunal Superior Eleitoral, TSE) (e.g., www.tse.jus.br/eleicoes/resultados-eleicoes).Eduardo Braide (PSD), former mayor of São Luís, holds the strongest position in the 2026 Maranhão gubernatorial race, with recent Quaest polling showing him at 44% in the first round against Orleans Brandão (MDB) at 25% and Felipe Camarão (PT) at 6%. Braide’s lead has widened since earlier surveys, driven by higher name recognition and voter consolidation as the October 4 first-round vote approaches. Brandão, nephew of incumbent governor Carlos Brandão, benefits from state-level alliances and MDB infrastructure but trails significantly in current estimates. Minor candidates and write-ins register minimal support. Trader consensus, reflected in market pricing, aligns with polling momentum and historical patterns for incumbency-challenger dynamics in Brazilian state elections, though 17% undecided voters and a possible October 25 runoff introduce residual uncertainty ahead of final registration confirmations by the TSE.
The Maranhão gubernatorial election is scheduled to take place in Brazil on October 4, 2026, with a runoff on October 25, 2026, if no candidate receives a majority of the valid votes in the first round.
This market will resolve according to the candidate who wins this election.
Temporary, interim, or placeholder governors appointed by any means before the specified election will not be considered.
If the result of this election isn't known by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "Other".
This market will resolve based on the result of the election, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Brazilian government, specifically the Superior Electoral Court (Tribunal Superior Eleitoral, TSE) (e.g., www.tse.jus.br/eleicoes/resultados-eleicoes).
This market will resolve according to the candidate who wins this election.
Temporary, interim, or placeholder governors appointed by any means before the specified election will not be considered.
If the result of this election isn't known by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "Other".
This market will resolve based on the result of the election, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Brazilian government, specifically the Superior Electoral Court (Tribunal Superior Eleitoral, TSE) (e.g., www.tse.jus.br/eleicoes/resultados-eleicoes).
Market Opened: Jun 12, 2026, 10:38 AM ET
Volume
$66,441End Date
Oct 5, 2026Market Opened
Jun 12, 2026, 10:38 AM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...The Maranhão gubernatorial election is scheduled to take place in Brazil on October 4, 2026, with a runoff on October 25, 2026, if no candidate receives a majority of the valid votes in the first round.
This market will resolve according to the candidate who wins this election.
Temporary, interim, or placeholder governors appointed by any means before the specified election will not be considered.
If the result of this election isn't known by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "Other".
This market will resolve based on the result of the election, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Brazilian government, specifically the Superior Electoral Court (Tribunal Superior Eleitoral, TSE) (e.g., www.tse.jus.br/eleicoes/resultados-eleicoes).Eduardo Braide (PSD), former mayor of São Luís, holds the strongest position in the 2026 Maranhão gubernatorial race, with recent Quaest polling showing him at 44% in the first round against Orleans Brandão (MDB) at 25% and Felipe Camarão (PT) at 6%. Braide’s lead has widened since earlier surveys, driven by higher name recognition and voter consolidation as the October 4 first-round vote approaches. Brandão, nephew of incumbent governor Carlos Brandão, benefits from state-level alliances and MDB infrastructure but trails significantly in current estimates. Minor candidates and write-ins register minimal support. Trader consensus, reflected in market pricing, aligns with polling momentum and historical patterns for incumbency-challenger dynamics in Brazilian state elections, though 17% undecided voters and a possible October 25 runoff introduce residual uncertainty ahead of final registration confirmations by the TSE.
The Maranhão gubernatorial election is scheduled to take place in Brazil on October 4, 2026, with a runoff on October 25, 2026, if no candidate receives a majority of the valid votes in the first round.
This market will resolve according to the candidate who wins this election.
Temporary, interim, or placeholder governors appointed by any means before the specified election will not be considered.
If the result of this election isn't known by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "Other".
This market will resolve based on the result of the election, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Brazilian government, specifically the Superior Electoral Court (Tribunal Superior Eleitoral, TSE) (e.g., www.tse.jus.br/eleicoes/resultados-eleicoes).
This market will resolve according to the candidate who wins this election.
Temporary, interim, or placeholder governors appointed by any means before the specified election will not be considered.
If the result of this election isn't known by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "Other".
This market will resolve based on the result of the election, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Brazilian government, specifically the Superior Electoral Court (Tribunal Superior Eleitoral, TSE) (e.g., www.tse.jus.br/eleicoes/resultados-eleicoes).
Volume
$66,441End Date
Oct 5, 2026Market Opened
Jun 12, 2026, 10:38 AM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...Eduardo Braide (PSD), former mayor of São Luís, holds the strongest position in the 2026 Maranhão gubernatorial race, with recent Quaest polling showing him at 44% in the first round against Orleans Brandão (MDB) at 25% and Felipe Camarão (PT) at 6%. Braide’s lead has widened since earlier surveys, driven by higher name recognition and voter consolidation as the October 4 first-round vote approaches. Brandão, nephew of incumbent governor Carlos Brandão, benefits from state-level alliances and MDB infrastructure but trails significantly in current estimates. Minor candidates and write-ins register minimal support. Trader consensus, reflected in market pricing, aligns with polling momentum and historical patterns for incumbency-challenger dynamics in Brazilian state elections, though 17% undecided voters and a possible October 25 runoff introduce residual uncertainty ahead of final registration confirmations by the TSE.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated
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