Recent model consensus from sources like ECMWF and AccuWeather points to overnight radiative cooling under mostly clear, dry conditions typical of Madrid's late-summer continental climate, with minimum temperatures likely settling near 17–18°C on August 27. The city's 650-meter elevation and low humidity enhance nocturnal heat loss, while a gradual seasonal decline from peak August averages (around 17°C) and any light southwesterly flow could moderate or slightly elevate readings. Trader odds cluster tightly in this range because short-range ensemble spreads show modest variability from cloud-cover or wind-speed differences, with higher outcomes like 21°C requiring stronger advection and lower ones like 15°C needing unusually clear, calm nights—both less probable given current patterns. Updated guidance ahead of the date will refine these thresholds.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · UpdatedLowest temperature in Madrid on August 27?
Lowest temperature in Madrid on August 27?
21°C 54%
23°C or higher 50%
15°C 47%
20°C 46%
NEW
NEW
Aug 27, 2026
13°C or below
43%
14°C
19%
15°C
47%
16°C
24%
17°C
29%
18°C
30%
19°C
25%
20°C
46%
21°C
54%
22°C
8%
23°C or higher
50%
21°C 54%
23°C or higher 50%
15°C 47%
20°C 46%
NEW
NEW
Aug 27, 2026
13°C or below
$0 Vol.
43%
14°C
$0 Vol.
19%
15°C
$0 Vol.
47%
16°C
$0 Vol.
24%
17°C
$0 Vol.
29%
18°C
$0 Vol.
30%
19°C
$0 Vol.
25%
20°C
$0 Vol.
46%
21°C
$0 Vol.
54%
22°C
$0 Vol.
8%
23°C or higher
$0 Vol.
50%
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Adolfo Suárez Madrid-Barajas Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 27 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=lemd
If NOAA data is unavailable or missing for the observation period, Weather Underground will be used as the secondary resolution source.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.Recent model consensus from sources like ECMWF and AccuWeather points to overnight radiative cooling under mostly clear, dry conditions typical of Madrid's late-summer continental climate, with minimum temperatures likely settling near 17–18°C on August 27. The city's 650-meter elevation and low humidity enhance nocturnal heat loss, while a gradual seasonal decline from peak August averages (around 17°C) and any light southwesterly flow could moderate or slightly elevate readings. Trader odds cluster tightly in this range because short-range ensemble spreads show modest variability from cloud-cover or wind-speed differences, with higher outcomes like 21°C requiring stronger advection and lower ones like 15°C needing unusually clear, calm nights—both less probable given current patterns. Updated guidance ahead of the date will refine these thresholds.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Adolfo Suárez Madrid-Barajas Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 27 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=lemd
If NOAA data is unavailable or missing for the observation period, Weather Underground will be used as the secondary resolution source.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=lemd
If NOAA data is unavailable or missing for the observation period, Weather Underground will be used as the secondary resolution source.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
Market Opened: Aug 25, 2026, 12:30 AM ET
Volume
$0End Date
Aug 27, 2026Market Opened
Aug 25, 2026, 12:30 AM ETResolution Source
https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=lemdResolver
0x69c47De9D...This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Adolfo Suárez Madrid-Barajas Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 27 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=lemd
If NOAA data is unavailable or missing for the observation period, Weather Underground will be used as the secondary resolution source.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.Recent model consensus from sources like ECMWF and AccuWeather points to overnight radiative cooling under mostly clear, dry conditions typical of Madrid's late-summer continental climate, with minimum temperatures likely settling near 17–18°C on August 27. The city's 650-meter elevation and low humidity enhance nocturnal heat loss, while a gradual seasonal decline from peak August averages (around 17°C) and any light southwesterly flow could moderate or slightly elevate readings. Trader odds cluster tightly in this range because short-range ensemble spreads show modest variability from cloud-cover or wind-speed differences, with higher outcomes like 21°C requiring stronger advection and lower ones like 15°C needing unusually clear, calm nights—both less probable given current patterns. Updated guidance ahead of the date will refine these thresholds.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Adolfo Suárez Madrid-Barajas Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 27 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=lemd
If NOAA data is unavailable or missing for the observation period, Weather Underground will be used as the secondary resolution source.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=lemd
If NOAA data is unavailable or missing for the observation period, Weather Underground will be used as the secondary resolution source.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
Volume
$0End Date
Aug 27, 2026Market Opened
Aug 25, 2026, 12:30 AM ETResolution Source
https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=lemdResolver
0x69c47De9D...Recent model consensus from sources like ECMWF and AccuWeather points to overnight radiative cooling under mostly clear, dry conditions typical of Madrid's late-summer continental climate, with minimum temperatures likely settling near 17–18°C on August 27. The city's 650-meter elevation and low humidity enhance nocturnal heat loss, while a gradual seasonal decline from peak August averages (around 17°C) and any light southwesterly flow could moderate or slightly elevate readings. Trader odds cluster tightly in this range because short-range ensemble spreads show modest variability from cloud-cover or wind-speed differences, with higher outcomes like 21°C requiring stronger advection and lower ones like 15°C needing unusually clear, calm nights—both less probable given current patterns. Updated guidance ahead of the date will refine these thresholds.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated
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