**Forecast consensus for Istanbul points to an overnight low of 21–22°C on August 27, 2026, with market-implied odds reflecting this tight clustering.** Multiple short-range models (including GFS and regional guidance) show stable high pressure, northeasterly flow, and partly clear skies that support moderate radiative cooling without significant advection of colder air. Recent observations confirm this setup: daytime highs near 29–30°C on the 25th–26th have transitioned into nights with minimums holding at 20–22°C amid light to moderate winds that limit mixing. Historical late-August climatology for Istanbul places typical minima around 20–21°C, so the current pattern aligns closely with seasonal norms rather than an anomalous cool or warm surge. Key differentiating factors between 21°C and 22°C include subtle variations in cloud cover (clearer skies favor slightly lower readings) and exact wind speeds overnight, which models resolve differently within their uncertainty ranges. No major weather system or rapid change is expected before resolution, keeping probabilities tightly matched as traders weigh the latest model runs and official station data against this stable regime.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · UpdatedLowest temperature in Istanbul on August 27?
Lowest temperature in Istanbul on August 27?
21°C 88%
20°C 50%
22°C 45%
23°C 27%
NEW
NEW
Aug 27, 2026
18°C or below
10%
19°C
19%
20°C
50%
21°C
88%
22°C
45%
23°C
27%
24°C
27%
25°C
2%
26°C
8%
27°C
8%
28°C or higher
13%
21°C 88%
20°C 50%
22°C 45%
23°C 27%
NEW
NEW
Aug 27, 2026
18°C or below
$0 Vol.
10%
19°C
$0 Vol.
19%
20°C
$0 Vol.
50%
21°C
$0 Vol.
88%
22°C
$0 Vol.
45%
23°C
$0 Vol.
27%
24°C
$0 Vol.
27%
25°C
$0 Vol.
2%
26°C
$0 Vol.
8%
27°C
$0 Vol.
8%
28°C or higher
$0 Vol.
13%
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Istanbul Airport in degrees Celsius on 27 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=LTFM
If NOAA data is unavailable or missing for the observation period, Weather Underground will be used as the secondary resolution source.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.**Forecast consensus for Istanbul points to an overnight low of 21–22°C on August 27, 2026, with market-implied odds reflecting this tight clustering.** Multiple short-range models (including GFS and regional guidance) show stable high pressure, northeasterly flow, and partly clear skies that support moderate radiative cooling without significant advection of colder air.
Recent observations confirm this setup: daytime highs near 29–30°C on the 25th–26th have transitioned into nights with minimums holding at 20–22°C amid light to moderate winds that limit mixing. Historical late-August climatology for Istanbul places typical minima around 20–21°C, so the current pattern aligns closely with seasonal norms rather than an anomalous cool or warm surge.
Key differentiating factors between 21°C and 22°C include subtle variations in cloud cover (clearer skies favor slightly lower readings) and exact wind speeds overnight, which models resolve differently within their uncertainty ranges. No major weather system or rapid change is expected before resolution, keeping probabilities tightly matched as traders weigh the latest model runs and official station data against this stable regime.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Istanbul Airport in degrees Celsius on 27 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=LTFM
If NOAA data is unavailable or missing for the observation period, Weather Underground will be used as the secondary resolution source.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=LTFM
If NOAA data is unavailable or missing for the observation period, Weather Underground will be used as the secondary resolution source.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
Market Opened: Aug 25, 2026, 12:31 AM ET
Volume
$0End Date
Aug 27, 2026Market Opened
Aug 25, 2026, 12:31 AM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Istanbul Airport in degrees Celsius on 27 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=LTFM
If NOAA data is unavailable or missing for the observation period, Weather Underground will be used as the secondary resolution source.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.**Forecast consensus for Istanbul points to an overnight low of 21–22°C on August 27, 2026, with market-implied odds reflecting this tight clustering.** Multiple short-range models (including GFS and regional guidance) show stable high pressure, northeasterly flow, and partly clear skies that support moderate radiative cooling without significant advection of colder air.
Recent observations confirm this setup: daytime highs near 29–30°C on the 25th–26th have transitioned into nights with minimums holding at 20–22°C amid light to moderate winds that limit mixing. Historical late-August climatology for Istanbul places typical minima around 20–21°C, so the current pattern aligns closely with seasonal norms rather than an anomalous cool or warm surge.
Key differentiating factors between 21°C and 22°C include subtle variations in cloud cover (clearer skies favor slightly lower readings) and exact wind speeds overnight, which models resolve differently within their uncertainty ranges. No major weather system or rapid change is expected before resolution, keeping probabilities tightly matched as traders weigh the latest model runs and official station data against this stable regime.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Istanbul Airport in degrees Celsius on 27 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=LTFM
If NOAA data is unavailable or missing for the observation period, Weather Underground will be used as the secondary resolution source.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=LTFM
If NOAA data is unavailable or missing for the observation period, Weather Underground will be used as the secondary resolution source.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
Volume
$0End Date
Aug 27, 2026Market Opened
Aug 25, 2026, 12:31 AM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...**Forecast consensus for Istanbul points to an overnight low of 21–22°C on August 27, 2026, with market-implied odds reflecting this tight clustering.** Multiple short-range models (including GFS and regional guidance) show stable high pressure, northeasterly flow, and partly clear skies that support moderate radiative cooling without significant advection of colder air. Recent observations confirm this setup: daytime highs near 29–30°C on the 25th–26th have transitioned into nights with minimums holding at 20–22°C amid light to moderate winds that limit mixing. Historical late-August climatology for Istanbul places typical minima around 20–21°C, so the current pattern aligns closely with seasonal norms rather than an anomalous cool or warm surge. Key differentiating factors between 21°C and 22°C include subtle variations in cloud cover (clearer skies favor slightly lower readings) and exact wind speeds overnight, which models resolve differently within their uncertainty ranges. No major weather system or rapid change is expected before resolution, keeping probabilities tightly matched as traders weigh the latest model runs and official station data against this stable regime.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated
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