Recent meteorological forecasts from multiple models converge on a minimum temperature of 23°C for Istanbul on August 26, 2026, under mostly clear to partly cloudy skies with light northeasterly winds and negligible precipitation. This alignment with climatological norms for late August, where overnight lows typically range 22–23°C, underpins the market's strong 89.5% implied probability for 23°C. Minor model spread around 22°C accounts for the secondary 22.5% odds, while the day's observed temperatures remaining above 24°C into evening hours and stable high-pressure conditions reduce the likelihood of cooler readings. Updated official guidance and final overnight observations will confirm the exact minimum for market resolution.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · UpdatedLowest temperature in Istanbul on August 26?
Lowest temperature in Istanbul on August 26?
23°C 100.0%
21°C 1.0%
22°C 1.0%
17°C or below <1%
$3,491 Vol.
$3,491 Vol.
Aug 26, 2026
17°C or below
No
18°C
No
19°C
No
20°C
No
21°C
No
22°C
No
23°C
Yes
24°C
No
25°C
No
26°C
No
27°C or higher
No
23°C 100.0%
21°C 1.0%
22°C 1.0%
17°C or below <1%
$3,491 Vol.
$3,491 Vol.
Aug 26, 2026
17°C or below
$856 Vol.
No
18°C
$113 Vol.
No
19°C
$50 Vol.
No
20°C
$35 Vol.
No
21°C
$199 Vol.
No
22°C
$240 Vol.
No
23°C
$480 Vol.
Yes
24°C
$78 Vol.
No
25°C
$240 Vol.
No
26°C
$900 Vol.
No
27°C or higher
$300 Vol.
No
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Istanbul Airport in degrees Celsius on 26 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=LTFM
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.Recent meteorological forecasts from multiple models converge on a minimum temperature of 23°C for Istanbul on August 26, 2026, under mostly clear to partly cloudy skies with light northeasterly winds and negligible precipitation. This alignment with climatological norms for late August, where overnight lows typically range 22–23°C, underpins the market's strong 89.5% implied probability for 23°C. Minor model spread around 22°C accounts for the secondary 22.5% odds, while the day's observed temperatures remaining above 24°C into evening hours and stable high-pressure conditions reduce the likelihood of cooler readings. Updated official guidance and final overnight observations will confirm the exact minimum for market resolution.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Istanbul Airport in degrees Celsius on 26 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=LTFM
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=LTFM
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
Market Opened: Aug 24, 2026, 12:31 AM ET
Volume
$3,491End Date
Aug 26, 2026Market Opened
Aug 24, 2026, 12:31 AM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...Outcome proposed: No
No dispute
Final outcome: No
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Istanbul Airport in degrees Celsius on 26 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=LTFM
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.Recent meteorological forecasts from multiple models converge on a minimum temperature of 23°C for Istanbul on August 26, 2026, under mostly clear to partly cloudy skies with light northeasterly winds and negligible precipitation. This alignment with climatological norms for late August, where overnight lows typically range 22–23°C, underpins the market's strong 89.5% implied probability for 23°C. Minor model spread around 22°C accounts for the secondary 22.5% odds, while the day's observed temperatures remaining above 24°C into evening hours and stable high-pressure conditions reduce the likelihood of cooler readings. Updated official guidance and final overnight observations will confirm the exact minimum for market resolution.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Istanbul Airport in degrees Celsius on 26 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=LTFM
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=LTFM
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
Volume
$3,491End Date
Aug 26, 2026Market Opened
Aug 24, 2026, 12:31 AM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...Outcome proposed: No
No dispute
Final outcome: No
Recent meteorological forecasts from multiple models converge on a minimum temperature of 23°C for Istanbul on August 26, 2026, under mostly clear to partly cloudy skies with light northeasterly winds and negligible precipitation. This alignment with climatological norms for late August, where overnight lows typically range 22–23°C, underpins the market's strong 89.5% implied probability for 23°C. Minor model spread around 22°C accounts for the secondary 22.5% odds, while the day's observed temperatures remaining above 24°C into evening hours and stable high-pressure conditions reduce the likelihood of cooler readings. Updated official guidance and final overnight observations will confirm the exact minimum for market resolution.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated
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