Forecast models from agencies including the Met Office and European ensembles indicate a cooling trend for Istanbul on August 28 driven by northerly flow advecting cooler maritime air, with daytime highs near 25–27°C and nighttime minima projected between 18–20°C amid scattered showers. Radiative cooling under partial cloud cover and variable wind speeds near 10–15 km/h introduce divergence across GFS and ECMWF runs, particularly in the timing of precipitation that could suppress or enhance overnight temperature drops. This scientific uncertainty—centered on boundary-layer moisture and steering patterns—explains the tightly matched market-implied odds across bins, as traders weigh the range of plausible outcomes against historical August baselines around 21°C. Updated model guidance expected in the next 24–48 hours will likely sharpen resolution criteria for the daily minimum.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · UpdatedLowest temperature in Istanbul on August 28?
Lowest temperature in Istanbul on August 28?
16°C or below 100%
17°C 100%
18°C 100%
19°C 100%
NEW
NEW
Aug 28, 2026
16°C or below
100%
17°C
100%
18°C
100%
19°C
100%
20°C
100%
21°C
100%
22°C
100%
23°C
100%
24°C
100%
25°C
100%
26°C or higher
100%
16°C or below 100%
17°C 100%
18°C 100%
19°C 100%
NEW
NEW
Aug 28, 2026
16°C or below
$0 Vol.
100%
17°C
$0 Vol.
100%
18°C
$0 Vol.
100%
19°C
$0 Vol.
100%
20°C
$0 Vol.
100%
21°C
$0 Vol.
100%
22°C
$0 Vol.
100%
23°C
$0 Vol.
100%
24°C
$0 Vol.
100%
25°C
$0 Vol.
100%
26°C or higher
$0 Vol.
100%
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Istanbul Airport in degrees Celsius on 28 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=LTFM
If NOAA data is unavailable or missing for the observation period, Weather Underground will be used as the secondary resolution source.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.Forecast models from agencies including the Met Office and European ensembles indicate a cooling trend for Istanbul on August 28 driven by northerly flow advecting cooler maritime air, with daytime highs near 25–27°C and nighttime minima projected between 18–20°C amid scattered showers. Radiative cooling under partial cloud cover and variable wind speeds near 10–15 km/h introduce divergence across GFS and ECMWF runs, particularly in the timing of precipitation that could suppress or enhance overnight temperature drops. This scientific uncertainty—centered on boundary-layer moisture and steering patterns—explains the tightly matched market-implied odds across bins, as traders weigh the range of plausible outcomes against historical August baselines around 21°C. Updated model guidance expected in the next 24–48 hours will likely sharpen resolution criteria for the daily minimum.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Istanbul Airport in degrees Celsius on 28 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=LTFM
If NOAA data is unavailable or missing for the observation period, Weather Underground will be used as the secondary resolution source.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=LTFM
If NOAA data is unavailable or missing for the observation period, Weather Underground will be used as the secondary resolution source.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
Market Opened: Aug 26, 2026, 12:31 AM ET
Volume
$0End Date
Aug 28, 2026Market Opened
Aug 26, 2026, 12:31 AM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Istanbul Airport in degrees Celsius on 28 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=LTFM
If NOAA data is unavailable or missing for the observation period, Weather Underground will be used as the secondary resolution source.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.Forecast models from agencies including the Met Office and European ensembles indicate a cooling trend for Istanbul on August 28 driven by northerly flow advecting cooler maritime air, with daytime highs near 25–27°C and nighttime minima projected between 18–20°C amid scattered showers. Radiative cooling under partial cloud cover and variable wind speeds near 10–15 km/h introduce divergence across GFS and ECMWF runs, particularly in the timing of precipitation that could suppress or enhance overnight temperature drops. This scientific uncertainty—centered on boundary-layer moisture and steering patterns—explains the tightly matched market-implied odds across bins, as traders weigh the range of plausible outcomes against historical August baselines around 21°C. Updated model guidance expected in the next 24–48 hours will likely sharpen resolution criteria for the daily minimum.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Istanbul Airport in degrees Celsius on 28 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=LTFM
If NOAA data is unavailable or missing for the observation period, Weather Underground will be used as the secondary resolution source.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=LTFM
If NOAA data is unavailable or missing for the observation period, Weather Underground will be used as the secondary resolution source.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
Volume
$0End Date
Aug 28, 2026Market Opened
Aug 26, 2026, 12:31 AM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...Forecast models from agencies including the Met Office and European ensembles indicate a cooling trend for Istanbul on August 28 driven by northerly flow advecting cooler maritime air, with daytime highs near 25–27°C and nighttime minima projected between 18–20°C amid scattered showers. Radiative cooling under partial cloud cover and variable wind speeds near 10–15 km/h introduce divergence across GFS and ECMWF runs, particularly in the timing of precipitation that could suppress or enhance overnight temperature drops. This scientific uncertainty—centered on boundary-layer moisture and steering patterns—explains the tightly matched market-implied odds across bins, as traders weigh the range of plausible outcomes against historical August baselines around 21°C. Updated model guidance expected in the next 24–48 hours will likely sharpen resolution criteria for the daily minimum.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated
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