**Recent forecast guidance from MetService and the UK Met Office points to a maximum of 14–15°C for Wellington on 26 August 2026 under partly cloudy conditions and northwesterly flow.** This setup favors modest warming from adiabatic compression on the lee side of the North Island ranges, keeping daytime highs near or slightly above the August climatological average of ~13–15°C. NIWA’s seasonal outlook for the Wellington region assigns the highest probability (45 %) to near-average temperatures through the month, consistent with the observed pattern of alternating cold outbreaks and milder interludes. **Ensemble model runs show limited upside potential to 16°C if northwesterlies strengthen or if cloud cover remains broken, while downside risk to 14°C or lower is constrained by the absence of a strong southerly change in the latest guidance.** Market-implied probabilities (16 °C at 60.5 %, 15 °C at 33.5 %) therefore reflect traders weighting the upper end of the consensus forecast range, incorporating historical day-to-day variability in the capital’s exposed, windy location and the narrow resolution window for the daily maximum. No major model disagreement or incoming frontal system has yet shifted the distribution away from this narrow 15–16 °C band.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · UpdatedHighest temperature in Wellington on August 26?
Highest temperature in Wellington on August 26?
16°C 61%
15°C 34%
17°C 7%
14°C 1.6%
NEW
$20,652 Vol.
NEW
$20,652 Vol.
Aug 26, 2026
10°C or below
<1%
11°C
<1%
12°C
<1%
13°C
<1%
14°C
2%
15°C
34%
16°C
61%
17°C
7%
18°C
2%
19°C
<1%
20°C or higher
<1%
16°C 61%
15°C 34%
17°C 7%
14°C 1.6%
NEW
$20,652 Vol.
NEW
$20,652 Vol.
Aug 26, 2026
10°C or below
$1,332 Vol.
<1%
11°C
$289 Vol.
<1%
12°C
$1,333 Vol.
<1%
13°C
$239 Vol.
<1%
14°C
$1,671 Vol.
2%
15°C
$6,114 Vol.
34%
16°C
$3,912 Vol.
61%
17°C
$3,606 Vol.
7%
18°C
$1,636 Vol.
2%
19°C
$252 Vol.
<1%
20°C or higher
$269 Vol.
<1%
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Wellington Intl Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 26 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=nzwn
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.**Recent forecast guidance from MetService and the UK Met Office points to a maximum of 14–15°C for Wellington on 26 August 2026 under partly cloudy conditions and northwesterly flow.** This setup favors modest warming from adiabatic compression on the lee side of the North Island ranges, keeping daytime highs near or slightly above the August climatological average of ~13–15°C. NIWA’s seasonal outlook for the Wellington region assigns the highest probability (45 %) to near-average temperatures through the month, consistent with the observed pattern of alternating cold outbreaks and milder interludes.
**Ensemble model runs show limited upside potential to 16°C if northwesterlies strengthen or if cloud cover remains broken, while downside risk to 14°C or lower is constrained by the absence of a strong southerly change in the latest guidance.** Market-implied probabilities (16 °C at 60.5 %, 15 °C at 33.5 %) therefore reflect traders weighting the upper end of the consensus forecast range, incorporating historical day-to-day variability in the capital’s exposed, windy location and the narrow resolution window for the daily maximum. No major model disagreement or incoming frontal system has yet shifted the distribution away from this narrow 15–16 °C band.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Wellington Intl Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 26 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=nzwn
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=nzwn
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
Market Opened: Aug 24, 2026, 12:56 AM ET
Volume
$20,652End Date
Aug 26, 2026Market Opened
Aug 24, 2026, 12:56 AM ETResolution Source
https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=nzwnResolver
0x69c47De9D...This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Wellington Intl Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 26 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=nzwn
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.**Recent forecast guidance from MetService and the UK Met Office points to a maximum of 14–15°C for Wellington on 26 August 2026 under partly cloudy conditions and northwesterly flow.** This setup favors modest warming from adiabatic compression on the lee side of the North Island ranges, keeping daytime highs near or slightly above the August climatological average of ~13–15°C. NIWA’s seasonal outlook for the Wellington region assigns the highest probability (45 %) to near-average temperatures through the month, consistent with the observed pattern of alternating cold outbreaks and milder interludes.
**Ensemble model runs show limited upside potential to 16°C if northwesterlies strengthen or if cloud cover remains broken, while downside risk to 14°C or lower is constrained by the absence of a strong southerly change in the latest guidance.** Market-implied probabilities (16 °C at 60.5 %, 15 °C at 33.5 %) therefore reflect traders weighting the upper end of the consensus forecast range, incorporating historical day-to-day variability in the capital’s exposed, windy location and the narrow resolution window for the daily maximum. No major model disagreement or incoming frontal system has yet shifted the distribution away from this narrow 15–16 °C band.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Wellington Intl Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 26 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=nzwn
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=nzwn
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
Volume
$20,652End Date
Aug 26, 2026Market Opened
Aug 24, 2026, 12:56 AM ETResolution Source
https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=nzwnResolver
0x69c47De9D...**Recent forecast guidance from MetService and the UK Met Office points to a maximum of 14–15°C for Wellington on 26 August 2026 under partly cloudy conditions and northwesterly flow.** This setup favors modest warming from adiabatic compression on the lee side of the North Island ranges, keeping daytime highs near or slightly above the August climatological average of ~13–15°C. NIWA’s seasonal outlook for the Wellington region assigns the highest probability (45 %) to near-average temperatures through the month, consistent with the observed pattern of alternating cold outbreaks and milder interludes. **Ensemble model runs show limited upside potential to 16°C if northwesterlies strengthen or if cloud cover remains broken, while downside risk to 14°C or lower is constrained by the absence of a strong southerly change in the latest guidance.** Market-implied probabilities (16 °C at 60.5 %, 15 °C at 33.5 %) therefore reflect traders weighting the upper end of the consensus forecast range, incorporating historical day-to-day variability in the capital’s exposed, windy location and the narrow resolution window for the daily maximum. No major model disagreement or incoming frontal system has yet shifted the distribution away from this narrow 15–16 °C band.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated
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