Recent ensemble forecasts from global models, including GFS and ECMWF updates issued in the past 24 hours, indicate a maximum temperature near 30–31°C in Tel Aviv on August 30, aligning with the market's 62% implied probability for 31°C. Increased onshore westerly flow, partial cloud cover, and a 40–70% chance of scattered showers or thunderstorms are expected to limit afternoon heating relative to clearer conditions on August 29. Israel Meteorological Service guidance and station analogs for late August support this range, with historical maxima rarely exceeding 32°C under similar synoptic patterns. Traders appear to weigh these factors against residual model spread that could allow a 32°C outlier if convection remains limited. Updated runs ahead of the weekend will likely refine resolution criteria for the daily high.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · UpdatedHighest temperature in Tel Aviv on August 30?
Highest temperature in Tel Aviv on August 30?
31°C 62%
32°C 29%
30°C 15%
29°C 4%
NEW
NEW
Aug 30, 2026
27°C or below
1%
28°C
2%
29°C
4%
30°C
15%
31°C
62%
32°C
17%
33°C
3%
34°C
2%
35°C
1%
36°C
1%
37°C or higher
<1%
31°C 62%
32°C 29%
30°C 15%
29°C 4%
NEW
NEW
Aug 30, 2026
27°C or below
$17 Vol.
1%
28°C
$187 Vol.
2%
29°C
$16 Vol.
4%
30°C
$18 Vol.
15%
31°C
$278 Vol.
62%
32°C
$76 Vol.
17%
33°C
$0 Vol.
3%
34°C
$0 Vol.
2%
35°C
$0 Vol.
1%
36°C
$0 Vol.
1%
37°C or higher
$16 Vol.
<1%
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Ben Gurion International Airport in degrees Celsius on 30 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=LLBG
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.Recent ensemble forecasts from global models, including GFS and ECMWF updates issued in the past 24 hours, indicate a maximum temperature near 30–31°C in Tel Aviv on August 30, aligning with the market's 62% implied probability for 31°C. Increased onshore westerly flow, partial cloud cover, and a 40–70% chance of scattered showers or thunderstorms are expected to limit afternoon heating relative to clearer conditions on August 29. Israel Meteorological Service guidance and station analogs for late August support this range, with historical maxima rarely exceeding 32°C under similar synoptic patterns. Traders appear to weigh these factors against residual model spread that could allow a 32°C outlier if convection remains limited. Updated runs ahead of the weekend will likely refine resolution criteria for the daily high.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Ben Gurion International Airport in degrees Celsius on 30 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=LLBG
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=LLBG
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
Market Opened: Aug 28, 2026, 12:56 AM ET
Volume
$608End Date
Aug 30, 2026Market Opened
Aug 28, 2026, 12:56 AM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Ben Gurion International Airport in degrees Celsius on 30 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=LLBG
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.Recent ensemble forecasts from global models, including GFS and ECMWF updates issued in the past 24 hours, indicate a maximum temperature near 30–31°C in Tel Aviv on August 30, aligning with the market's 62% implied probability for 31°C. Increased onshore westerly flow, partial cloud cover, and a 40–70% chance of scattered showers or thunderstorms are expected to limit afternoon heating relative to clearer conditions on August 29. Israel Meteorological Service guidance and station analogs for late August support this range, with historical maxima rarely exceeding 32°C under similar synoptic patterns. Traders appear to weigh these factors against residual model spread that could allow a 32°C outlier if convection remains limited. Updated runs ahead of the weekend will likely refine resolution criteria for the daily high.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Ben Gurion International Airport in degrees Celsius on 30 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=LLBG
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=LLBG
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
Volume
$608End Date
Aug 30, 2026Market Opened
Aug 28, 2026, 12:56 AM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...Recent ensemble forecasts from global models, including GFS and ECMWF updates issued in the past 24 hours, indicate a maximum temperature near 30–31°C in Tel Aviv on August 30, aligning with the market's 62% implied probability for 31°C. Increased onshore westerly flow, partial cloud cover, and a 40–70% chance of scattered showers or thunderstorms are expected to limit afternoon heating relative to clearer conditions on August 29. Israel Meteorological Service guidance and station analogs for late August support this range, with historical maxima rarely exceeding 32°C under similar synoptic patterns. Traders appear to weigh these factors against residual model spread that could allow a 32°C outlier if convection remains limited. Updated runs ahead of the weekend will likely refine resolution criteria for the daily high.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated
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