Recent polling from Quaest (late August 2026) shows Michelle Bolsonaro (PL) leading combined Senate vote intentions in the Federal District at 25%, positioning her as the likely top finisher and leaving second place contested among incumbent Leila do Vôlei (PDT) at 17%, Erika Kokay (PT) at 12%, and Bia Kicis (PL) at 9%. High undecided rates—18% in stimulated scenarios and 73% spontaneous—plus the requirement to vote for two distinct candidates keep the second spot fluid. Alliances align along national lines, with the PL ticket backed by Flávio Bolsonaro and the PDT-PT pairing supporting Lula, while formal campaigns only began in mid-August. Trader consensus on Polymarket reflects Leila’s early edge for second, but shifts in turnout among undecided voters or late endorsements could alter the order before the October 4 vote.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · UpdatedLeila do Vôlei 44%
Erika Kokay 23%
Michelle Bolsonaro 20.2%
Bia Kicis 18%
$28,099 Vol.
$28,099 Vol.
Oct 4, 2026
Leila do Vôlei
44%
Erika Kokay
23%
Michelle Bolsonaro
20%
Bia Kicis
18%
David Horn
<1%
Avenir Rosa
<1%
Guto Felício dos Santos
<1%
Professor Guilherme Amorim
<1%
Tiago
<1%
Marley
<1%
Ronaldo Fonseca
<1%
Sebastião Coelho
<1%
Zanata
<1%
Leila do Vôlei 44%
Erika Kokay 23%
Michelle Bolsonaro 20.2%
Bia Kicis 18%
$28,099 Vol.
$28,099 Vol.
Oct 4, 2026
Leila do Vôlei
$7,007 Vol.
44%
Erika Kokay
$4,687 Vol.
23%
Michelle Bolsonaro
$3,780 Vol.
20%
Bia Kicis
$6,984 Vol.
18%
David Horn
$1,801 Vol.
<1%
Avenir Rosa
$437 Vol.
<1%
Guto Felício dos Santos
$381 Vol.
<1%
Professor Guilherme Amorim
$878 Vol.
<1%
Tiago
$546 Vol.
<1%
Marley
$392 Vol.
<1%
Ronaldo Fonseca
$407 Vol.
<1%
Sebastião Coelho
$381 Vol.
<1%
Zanata
$417 Vol.
<1%
The Brazilian Federal Senate election for Federal District is scheduled to take place on October 4, 2026.
This market will resolve according to the candidate who wins the second-most valid votes of any candidate at the specified election.
Candidates will be primarily ranked by order of valid votes won. If two or more candidates are tied for any position, ties will be broken by alphabetical order of the candidates’ listed full names as they appear in this market. This market will resolve to the candidate that occupies the second-highest finishing position after applying this ranking.
If the result of this election isn't definitively known by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "Other".
This market will resolve based on the result of the election, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Brazilian government, specifically the Superior Electoral Court (Tribunal Superior Eleitoral, TSE) (e.g., www.tse.jus.br/eleicoes/resultados-eleicoes).Recent polling from Quaest (late August 2026) shows Michelle Bolsonaro (PL) leading combined Senate vote intentions in the Federal District at 25%, positioning her as the likely top finisher and leaving second place contested among incumbent Leila do Vôlei (PDT) at 17%, Erika Kokay (PT) at 12%, and Bia Kicis (PL) at 9%. High undecided rates—18% in stimulated scenarios and 73% spontaneous—plus the requirement to vote for two distinct candidates keep the second spot fluid. Alliances align along national lines, with the PL ticket backed by Flávio Bolsonaro and the PDT-PT pairing supporting Lula, while formal campaigns only began in mid-August. Trader consensus on Polymarket reflects Leila’s early edge for second, but shifts in turnout among undecided voters or late endorsements could alter the order before the October 4 vote.
The Brazilian Federal Senate election for Federal District is scheduled to take place on October 4, 2026.
This market will resolve according to the candidate who wins the second-most valid votes of any candidate at the specified election.
Candidates will be primarily ranked by order of valid votes won. If two or more candidates are tied for any position, ties will be broken by alphabetical order of the candidates’ listed full names as they appear in this market. This market will resolve to the candidate that occupies the second-highest finishing position after applying this ranking.
If the result of this election isn't definitively known by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "Other".
This market will resolve based on the result of the election, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Brazilian government, specifically the Superior Electoral Court (Tribunal Superior Eleitoral, TSE) (e.g., www.tse.jus.br/eleicoes/resultados-eleicoes).
This market will resolve according to the candidate who wins the second-most valid votes of any candidate at the specified election.
Candidates will be primarily ranked by order of valid votes won. If two or more candidates are tied for any position, ties will be broken by alphabetical order of the candidates’ listed full names as they appear in this market. This market will resolve to the candidate that occupies the second-highest finishing position after applying this ranking.
If the result of this election isn't definitively known by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "Other".
This market will resolve based on the result of the election, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Brazilian government, specifically the Superior Electoral Court (Tribunal Superior Eleitoral, TSE) (e.g., www.tse.jus.br/eleicoes/resultados-eleicoes).
Market Opened: Aug 17, 2026, 5:57 AM ET
Volume
$28,099End Date
Oct 4, 2026Market Opened
Aug 17, 2026, 5:57 AM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...The Brazilian Federal Senate election for Federal District is scheduled to take place on October 4, 2026.
This market will resolve according to the candidate who wins the second-most valid votes of any candidate at the specified election.
Candidates will be primarily ranked by order of valid votes won. If two or more candidates are tied for any position, ties will be broken by alphabetical order of the candidates’ listed full names as they appear in this market. This market will resolve to the candidate that occupies the second-highest finishing position after applying this ranking.
If the result of this election isn't definitively known by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "Other".
This market will resolve based on the result of the election, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Brazilian government, specifically the Superior Electoral Court (Tribunal Superior Eleitoral, TSE) (e.g., www.tse.jus.br/eleicoes/resultados-eleicoes).Recent polling from Quaest (late August 2026) shows Michelle Bolsonaro (PL) leading combined Senate vote intentions in the Federal District at 25%, positioning her as the likely top finisher and leaving second place contested among incumbent Leila do Vôlei (PDT) at 17%, Erika Kokay (PT) at 12%, and Bia Kicis (PL) at 9%. High undecided rates—18% in stimulated scenarios and 73% spontaneous—plus the requirement to vote for two distinct candidates keep the second spot fluid. Alliances align along national lines, with the PL ticket backed by Flávio Bolsonaro and the PDT-PT pairing supporting Lula, while formal campaigns only began in mid-August. Trader consensus on Polymarket reflects Leila’s early edge for second, but shifts in turnout among undecided voters or late endorsements could alter the order before the October 4 vote.
The Brazilian Federal Senate election for Federal District is scheduled to take place on October 4, 2026.
This market will resolve according to the candidate who wins the second-most valid votes of any candidate at the specified election.
Candidates will be primarily ranked by order of valid votes won. If two or more candidates are tied for any position, ties will be broken by alphabetical order of the candidates’ listed full names as they appear in this market. This market will resolve to the candidate that occupies the second-highest finishing position after applying this ranking.
If the result of this election isn't definitively known by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "Other".
This market will resolve based on the result of the election, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Brazilian government, specifically the Superior Electoral Court (Tribunal Superior Eleitoral, TSE) (e.g., www.tse.jus.br/eleicoes/resultados-eleicoes).
This market will resolve according to the candidate who wins the second-most valid votes of any candidate at the specified election.
Candidates will be primarily ranked by order of valid votes won. If two or more candidates are tied for any position, ties will be broken by alphabetical order of the candidates’ listed full names as they appear in this market. This market will resolve to the candidate that occupies the second-highest finishing position after applying this ranking.
If the result of this election isn't definitively known by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "Other".
This market will resolve based on the result of the election, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Brazilian government, specifically the Superior Electoral Court (Tribunal Superior Eleitoral, TSE) (e.g., www.tse.jus.br/eleicoes/resultados-eleicoes).
Volume
$28,099End Date
Oct 4, 2026Market Opened
Aug 17, 2026, 5:57 AM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...Recent polling from Quaest (late August 2026) shows Michelle Bolsonaro (PL) leading combined Senate vote intentions in the Federal District at 25%, positioning her as the likely top finisher and leaving second place contested among incumbent Leila do Vôlei (PDT) at 17%, Erika Kokay (PT) at 12%, and Bia Kicis (PL) at 9%. High undecided rates—18% in stimulated scenarios and 73% spontaneous—plus the requirement to vote for two distinct candidates keep the second spot fluid. Alliances align along national lines, with the PL ticket backed by Flávio Bolsonaro and the PDT-PT pairing supporting Lula, while formal campaigns only began in mid-August. Trader consensus on Polymarket reflects Leila’s early edge for second, but shifts in turnout among undecided voters or late endorsements could alter the order before the October 4 vote.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated
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