Flávio Bolsonaro leads trader consensus for first place in Espírito Santo’s October 2026 first-round presidential vote at 87 percent implied probability, reflecting state-specific polling and historical patterns. July surveys in the state showed him at 36 percent against Lula’s 34 percent in the opening round, within the margin of error, with other tested names such as Romeu Zema and Renan Santos trailing in single digits. Espírito Santo has favored opposition candidates over PT contenders in recent national contests, and Flávio’s status as the Liberal Party nominee consolidates right-leaning support. Lula registers far lower odds at roughly 8 percent, consistent with weaker performance in the state, while remaining candidates register minimal shares. The market pricing aligns with the absence of major shifts in local sentiment or new statewide surveys since mid-year.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · UpdatedFlavio Bolsonaro 87%
Lula 7.8%
Veterinário Wilson Grassi 3.5%
Hertz Dias <1%
$14,189 Vol.
$14,189 Vol.
Oct 4, 2026
Flavio Bolsonaro
87%
Lula
8%
Veterinário Wilson Grassi
4%
Hertz Dias
1%
Rui Costa Pimenta
1%
Edmilson Costa
<1%
Clariana Barao
<1%
Renan Santos
<1%
Ronaldo Caiado
<1%
Escritor Augusto Cury
<1%
Pablo Marçal
<1%
Samara
<1%
Zema
<1%
Flavio Bolsonaro 87%
Lula 7.8%
Veterinário Wilson Grassi 3.5%
Hertz Dias <1%
$14,189 Vol.
$14,189 Vol.
Oct 4, 2026
Flavio Bolsonaro
$7,197 Vol.
87%
Lula
$299 Vol.
8%
Veterinário Wilson Grassi
$925 Vol.
4%
Hertz Dias
$738 Vol.
1%
Rui Costa Pimenta
$307 Vol.
1%
Edmilson Costa
$326 Vol.
<1%
Clariana Barao
$338 Vol.
<1%
Renan Santos
$643 Vol.
<1%
Ronaldo Caiado
$645 Vol.
<1%
Escritor Augusto Cury
$671 Vol.
<1%
Pablo Marçal
$644 Vol.
<1%
Samara
$746 Vol.
<1%
Zema
$710 Vol.
<1%
A presidential election is scheduled to take place in Espírito Santo, Brazil on October 4, 2026.
This market will resolve according to the listed candidate who receives the most valid votes in the first round of this election from Espírito Santo.
Candidates will be primarily ranked by order of valid votes won in Espírito Santo. If two or more candidates are tied for any position, ties will be broken by alphabetical order of the candidates’ listed full names as they appear in this market. This market will resolve to the candidate that occupies the highest finishing position after applying this ranking.
If the result of this election isn't known definitively by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "Other".
This market will resolve based on the result of the election, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Brazilian government, specifically the Superior Electoral Court (Tribunal Superior Eleitoral, TSE) (e.g., https://dadosabertos.tse.jus.br/).Flávio Bolsonaro leads trader consensus for first place in Espírito Santo’s October 2026 first-round presidential vote at 87 percent implied probability, reflecting state-specific polling and historical patterns. July surveys in the state showed him at 36 percent against Lula’s 34 percent in the opening round, within the margin of error, with other tested names such as Romeu Zema and Renan Santos trailing in single digits. Espírito Santo has favored opposition candidates over PT contenders in recent national contests, and Flávio’s status as the Liberal Party nominee consolidates right-leaning support. Lula registers far lower odds at roughly 8 percent, consistent with weaker performance in the state, while remaining candidates register minimal shares. The market pricing aligns with the absence of major shifts in local sentiment or new statewide surveys since mid-year.
A presidential election is scheduled to take place in Espírito Santo, Brazil on October 4, 2026.
This market will resolve according to the listed candidate who receives the most valid votes in the first round of this election from Espírito Santo.
Candidates will be primarily ranked by order of valid votes won in Espírito Santo. If two or more candidates are tied for any position, ties will be broken by alphabetical order of the candidates’ listed full names as they appear in this market. This market will resolve to the candidate that occupies the highest finishing position after applying this ranking.
If the result of this election isn't known definitively by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "Other".
This market will resolve based on the result of the election, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Brazilian government, specifically the Superior Electoral Court (Tribunal Superior Eleitoral, TSE) (e.g., https://dadosabertos.tse.jus.br/).
This market will resolve according to the listed candidate who receives the most valid votes in the first round of this election from Espírito Santo.
Candidates will be primarily ranked by order of valid votes won in Espírito Santo. If two or more candidates are tied for any position, ties will be broken by alphabetical order of the candidates’ listed full names as they appear in this market. This market will resolve to the candidate that occupies the highest finishing position after applying this ranking.
If the result of this election isn't known definitively by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "Other".
This market will resolve based on the result of the election, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Brazilian government, specifically the Superior Electoral Court (Tribunal Superior Eleitoral, TSE) (e.g., https://dadosabertos.tse.jus.br/).
Market Opened: Aug 17, 2026, 6:26 AM ET
Volume
$14,189End Date
Oct 4, 2026Market Opened
Aug 17, 2026, 6:26 AM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...A presidential election is scheduled to take place in Espírito Santo, Brazil on October 4, 2026.
This market will resolve according to the listed candidate who receives the most valid votes in the first round of this election from Espírito Santo.
Candidates will be primarily ranked by order of valid votes won in Espírito Santo. If two or more candidates are tied for any position, ties will be broken by alphabetical order of the candidates’ listed full names as they appear in this market. This market will resolve to the candidate that occupies the highest finishing position after applying this ranking.
If the result of this election isn't known definitively by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "Other".
This market will resolve based on the result of the election, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Brazilian government, specifically the Superior Electoral Court (Tribunal Superior Eleitoral, TSE) (e.g., https://dadosabertos.tse.jus.br/).Flávio Bolsonaro leads trader consensus for first place in Espírito Santo’s October 2026 first-round presidential vote at 87 percent implied probability, reflecting state-specific polling and historical patterns. July surveys in the state showed him at 36 percent against Lula’s 34 percent in the opening round, within the margin of error, with other tested names such as Romeu Zema and Renan Santos trailing in single digits. Espírito Santo has favored opposition candidates over PT contenders in recent national contests, and Flávio’s status as the Liberal Party nominee consolidates right-leaning support. Lula registers far lower odds at roughly 8 percent, consistent with weaker performance in the state, while remaining candidates register minimal shares. The market pricing aligns with the absence of major shifts in local sentiment or new statewide surveys since mid-year.
A presidential election is scheduled to take place in Espírito Santo, Brazil on October 4, 2026.
This market will resolve according to the listed candidate who receives the most valid votes in the first round of this election from Espírito Santo.
Candidates will be primarily ranked by order of valid votes won in Espírito Santo. If two or more candidates are tied for any position, ties will be broken by alphabetical order of the candidates’ listed full names as they appear in this market. This market will resolve to the candidate that occupies the highest finishing position after applying this ranking.
If the result of this election isn't known definitively by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "Other".
This market will resolve based on the result of the election, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Brazilian government, specifically the Superior Electoral Court (Tribunal Superior Eleitoral, TSE) (e.g., https://dadosabertos.tse.jus.br/).
This market will resolve according to the listed candidate who receives the most valid votes in the first round of this election from Espírito Santo.
Candidates will be primarily ranked by order of valid votes won in Espírito Santo. If two or more candidates are tied for any position, ties will be broken by alphabetical order of the candidates’ listed full names as they appear in this market. This market will resolve to the candidate that occupies the highest finishing position after applying this ranking.
If the result of this election isn't known definitively by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "Other".
This market will resolve based on the result of the election, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Brazilian government, specifically the Superior Electoral Court (Tribunal Superior Eleitoral, TSE) (e.g., https://dadosabertos.tse.jus.br/).
Volume
$14,189End Date
Oct 4, 2026Market Opened
Aug 17, 2026, 6:26 AM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...Flávio Bolsonaro leads trader consensus for first place in Espírito Santo’s October 2026 first-round presidential vote at 87 percent implied probability, reflecting state-specific polling and historical patterns. July surveys in the state showed him at 36 percent against Lula’s 34 percent in the opening round, within the margin of error, with other tested names such as Romeu Zema and Renan Santos trailing in single digits. Espírito Santo has favored opposition candidates over PT contenders in recent national contests, and Flávio’s status as the Liberal Party nominee consolidates right-leaning support. Lula registers far lower odds at roughly 8 percent, consistent with weaker performance in the state, while remaining candidates register minimal shares. The market pricing aligns with the absence of major shifts in local sentiment or new statewide surveys since mid-year.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated
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