Lula's commanding 97% implied probability to finish first in Bahia's October 2026 presidential first round reflects entrenched regional support in the Northeast stronghold, where a July Genial/Quaest poll showed him at 52% against Flávio Bolsonaro's 18% and single-digit or lower figures for all other tested names. Government approval stands at 62% among baianos, with rejection of leading opponents notably higher. National polling trends have not altered this state-level gap, and no late-campaign events have emerged to erode Lula's position ahead of the vote. A major scandal, sharp deterioration in economic sentiment, or unforeseen candidate consolidation could narrow the margin, though current evidence points to limited pathways for challengers to overtake in the state.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · UpdatedLula 97.4%
Flavio Bolsonaro 1.1%
Escritor Augusto Cury <1%
Pablo Marçal <1%
NEW
NEW
Oct 4, 2026
Lula
97%
Flavio Bolsonaro
1%
Escritor Augusto Cury
<1%
Pablo Marçal
<1%
Renan Santos
<1%
Ronaldo Caiado
<1%
Rui Costa Pimenta
<1%
Samara
<1%
Veterinário Wilson Grassi
<1%
Zema
<1%
Hertz Dias
<1%
Edmilson Costa
<1%
Clariana Barao
<1%
Lula 97.4%
Flavio Bolsonaro 1.1%
Escritor Augusto Cury <1%
Pablo Marçal <1%
NEW
NEW
Oct 4, 2026
Lula
$4,685 Vol.
97%
Flavio Bolsonaro
$385 Vol.
1%
Escritor Augusto Cury
$359 Vol.
<1%
Pablo Marçal
$283 Vol.
<1%
Renan Santos
$339 Vol.
<1%
Ronaldo Caiado
$359 Vol.
<1%
Rui Costa Pimenta
$271 Vol.
<1%
Samara
$351 Vol.
<1%
Veterinário Wilson Grassi
$351 Vol.
<1%
Zema
$231 Vol.
<1%
Hertz Dias
$355 Vol.
<1%
Edmilson Costa
$363 Vol.
<1%
Clariana Barao
$358 Vol.
<1%
A presidential election is scheduled to take place in Bahia, Brazil on October 4, 2026.
This market will resolve according to the listed candidate who receives the most valid votes in the first round of this election from Bahia.
Candidates will be primarily ranked by order of valid votes won in Bahia. If two or more candidates are tied for any position, ties will be broken by alphabetical order of the candidates’ listed full names as they appear in this market. This market will resolve to the candidate that occupies the highest finishing position after applying this ranking.
If the result of this election isn't known definitively by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "Other".
This market will resolve based on the result of the election, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Brazilian government, specifically the Superior Electoral Court (Tribunal Superior Eleitoral, TSE) (e.g., https://dadosabertos.tse.jus.br/).Lula's commanding 97% implied probability to finish first in Bahia's October 2026 presidential first round reflects entrenched regional support in the Northeast stronghold, where a July Genial/Quaest poll showed him at 52% against Flávio Bolsonaro's 18% and single-digit or lower figures for all other tested names. Government approval stands at 62% among baianos, with rejection of leading opponents notably higher. National polling trends have not altered this state-level gap, and no late-campaign events have emerged to erode Lula's position ahead of the vote. A major scandal, sharp deterioration in economic sentiment, or unforeseen candidate consolidation could narrow the margin, though current evidence points to limited pathways for challengers to overtake in the state.
A presidential election is scheduled to take place in Bahia, Brazil on October 4, 2026.
This market will resolve according to the listed candidate who receives the most valid votes in the first round of this election from Bahia.
Candidates will be primarily ranked by order of valid votes won in Bahia. If two or more candidates are tied for any position, ties will be broken by alphabetical order of the candidates’ listed full names as they appear in this market. This market will resolve to the candidate that occupies the highest finishing position after applying this ranking.
If the result of this election isn't known definitively by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "Other".
This market will resolve based on the result of the election, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Brazilian government, specifically the Superior Electoral Court (Tribunal Superior Eleitoral, TSE) (e.g., https://dadosabertos.tse.jus.br/).
This market will resolve according to the listed candidate who receives the most valid votes in the first round of this election from Bahia.
Candidates will be primarily ranked by order of valid votes won in Bahia. If two or more candidates are tied for any position, ties will be broken by alphabetical order of the candidates’ listed full names as they appear in this market. This market will resolve to the candidate that occupies the highest finishing position after applying this ranking.
If the result of this election isn't known definitively by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "Other".
This market will resolve based on the result of the election, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Brazilian government, specifically the Superior Electoral Court (Tribunal Superior Eleitoral, TSE) (e.g., https://dadosabertos.tse.jus.br/).
Market Opened: Aug 17, 2026, 6:26 AM ET
Volume
$8,691End Date
Oct 4, 2026Market Opened
Aug 17, 2026, 6:26 AM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...A presidential election is scheduled to take place in Bahia, Brazil on October 4, 2026.
This market will resolve according to the listed candidate who receives the most valid votes in the first round of this election from Bahia.
Candidates will be primarily ranked by order of valid votes won in Bahia. If two or more candidates are tied for any position, ties will be broken by alphabetical order of the candidates’ listed full names as they appear in this market. This market will resolve to the candidate that occupies the highest finishing position after applying this ranking.
If the result of this election isn't known definitively by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "Other".
This market will resolve based on the result of the election, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Brazilian government, specifically the Superior Electoral Court (Tribunal Superior Eleitoral, TSE) (e.g., https://dadosabertos.tse.jus.br/).Lula's commanding 97% implied probability to finish first in Bahia's October 2026 presidential first round reflects entrenched regional support in the Northeast stronghold, where a July Genial/Quaest poll showed him at 52% against Flávio Bolsonaro's 18% and single-digit or lower figures for all other tested names. Government approval stands at 62% among baianos, with rejection of leading opponents notably higher. National polling trends have not altered this state-level gap, and no late-campaign events have emerged to erode Lula's position ahead of the vote. A major scandal, sharp deterioration in economic sentiment, or unforeseen candidate consolidation could narrow the margin, though current evidence points to limited pathways for challengers to overtake in the state.
A presidential election is scheduled to take place in Bahia, Brazil on October 4, 2026.
This market will resolve according to the listed candidate who receives the most valid votes in the first round of this election from Bahia.
Candidates will be primarily ranked by order of valid votes won in Bahia. If two or more candidates are tied for any position, ties will be broken by alphabetical order of the candidates’ listed full names as they appear in this market. This market will resolve to the candidate that occupies the highest finishing position after applying this ranking.
If the result of this election isn't known definitively by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "Other".
This market will resolve based on the result of the election, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Brazilian government, specifically the Superior Electoral Court (Tribunal Superior Eleitoral, TSE) (e.g., https://dadosabertos.tse.jus.br/).
This market will resolve according to the listed candidate who receives the most valid votes in the first round of this election from Bahia.
Candidates will be primarily ranked by order of valid votes won in Bahia. If two or more candidates are tied for any position, ties will be broken by alphabetical order of the candidates’ listed full names as they appear in this market. This market will resolve to the candidate that occupies the highest finishing position after applying this ranking.
If the result of this election isn't known definitively by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "Other".
This market will resolve based on the result of the election, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Brazilian government, specifically the Superior Electoral Court (Tribunal Superior Eleitoral, TSE) (e.g., https://dadosabertos.tse.jus.br/).
Volume
$8,691End Date
Oct 4, 2026Market Opened
Aug 17, 2026, 6:26 AM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...Lula's commanding 97% implied probability to finish first in Bahia's October 2026 presidential first round reflects entrenched regional support in the Northeast stronghold, where a July Genial/Quaest poll showed him at 52% against Flávio Bolsonaro's 18% and single-digit or lower figures for all other tested names. Government approval stands at 62% among baianos, with rejection of leading opponents notably higher. National polling trends have not altered this state-level gap, and no late-campaign events have emerged to erode Lula's position ahead of the vote. A major scandal, sharp deterioration in economic sentiment, or unforeseen candidate consolidation could narrow the margin, though current evidence points to limited pathways for challengers to overtake in the state.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated
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