Lula maintains a commanding lead in Amazonas polling for the October 2026 first-round vote, backed by consistent double-digit advantages in state surveys from June through mid-August that show him ahead of Flavio Bolsonaro by roughly nine points. His position draws from established support across the state's interior municipalities, which account for nearly half the electorate, alongside national campaign momentum following the legalization of presidential candidacies on August 16. Flavio Bolsonaro, the Liberal Party nominee and primary right-wing contender, consolidates much of the remaining vote but trails in Amazonas-specific data despite stronger showings in other northern states. Minor candidates including Ronaldo Caiado, Romeu Zema, Renan Santos, and Augusto Cury register only low single digits or less in regional samples, limiting any path to first place. An offshore oil discovery near the Amazon coast has provided Lula additional visibility on development issues in the region, while the overall race remains early with free airtime set to begin later this month.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · UpdatedLula 89%
Flavio Bolsonaro 11%
Renan Santos <1%
Zema <1%
NEW
NEW
Oct 4, 2026
Lula
89%
Flavio Bolsonaro
11%
Renan Santos
1%
Zema
<1%
Ronaldo Caiado
<1%
Veterinário Wilson Grassi
<1%
Clariana Barao
<1%
Escritor Augusto Cury
<1%
Edmilson Costa
<1%
Hertz Dias
<1%
Pablo Marçal
<1%
Rui Costa Pimenta
<1%
Samara
<1%
Lula 89%
Flavio Bolsonaro 11%
Renan Santos <1%
Zema <1%
NEW
NEW
Oct 4, 2026
Lula
$3,116 Vol.
89%
Flavio Bolsonaro
$1,367 Vol.
11%
Renan Santos
$428 Vol.
1%
Zema
$416 Vol.
<1%
Ronaldo Caiado
$355 Vol.
<1%
Veterinário Wilson Grassi
$367 Vol.
<1%
Clariana Barao
$426 Vol.
<1%
Escritor Augusto Cury
$390 Vol.
<1%
Edmilson Costa
$449 Vol.
<1%
Hertz Dias
$580 Vol.
<1%
Pablo Marçal
$580 Vol.
<1%
Rui Costa Pimenta
$475 Vol.
<1%
Samara
$365 Vol.
<1%
A presidential election is scheduled to take place in Amazonas, Brazil on October 4, 2026.
This market will resolve according to the listed candidate who receives the most valid votes in the first round of this election from Amazonas.
Candidates will be primarily ranked by order of valid votes won in Amazonas. If two or more candidates are tied for any position, ties will be broken by alphabetical order of the candidates’ listed full names as they appear in this market. This market will resolve to the candidate that occupies the highest finishing position after applying this ranking.
If the result of this election isn't known definitively by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "Other".
This market will resolve based on the result of the election, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Brazilian government, specifically the Superior Electoral Court (Tribunal Superior Eleitoral, TSE) (e.g., https://dadosabertos.tse.jus.br/).Lula maintains a commanding lead in Amazonas polling for the October 2026 first-round vote, backed by consistent double-digit advantages in state surveys from June through mid-August that show him ahead of Flavio Bolsonaro by roughly nine points. His position draws from established support across the state's interior municipalities, which account for nearly half the electorate, alongside national campaign momentum following the legalization of presidential candidacies on August 16. Flavio Bolsonaro, the Liberal Party nominee and primary right-wing contender, consolidates much of the remaining vote but trails in Amazonas-specific data despite stronger showings in other northern states. Minor candidates including Ronaldo Caiado, Romeu Zema, Renan Santos, and Augusto Cury register only low single digits or less in regional samples, limiting any path to first place. An offshore oil discovery near the Amazon coast has provided Lula additional visibility on development issues in the region, while the overall race remains early with free airtime set to begin later this month.
A presidential election is scheduled to take place in Amazonas, Brazil on October 4, 2026.
This market will resolve according to the listed candidate who receives the most valid votes in the first round of this election from Amazonas.
Candidates will be primarily ranked by order of valid votes won in Amazonas. If two or more candidates are tied for any position, ties will be broken by alphabetical order of the candidates’ listed full names as they appear in this market. This market will resolve to the candidate that occupies the highest finishing position after applying this ranking.
If the result of this election isn't known definitively by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "Other".
This market will resolve based on the result of the election, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Brazilian government, specifically the Superior Electoral Court (Tribunal Superior Eleitoral, TSE) (e.g., https://dadosabertos.tse.jus.br/).
This market will resolve according to the listed candidate who receives the most valid votes in the first round of this election from Amazonas.
Candidates will be primarily ranked by order of valid votes won in Amazonas. If two or more candidates are tied for any position, ties will be broken by alphabetical order of the candidates’ listed full names as they appear in this market. This market will resolve to the candidate that occupies the highest finishing position after applying this ranking.
If the result of this election isn't known definitively by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "Other".
This market will resolve based on the result of the election, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Brazilian government, specifically the Superior Electoral Court (Tribunal Superior Eleitoral, TSE) (e.g., https://dadosabertos.tse.jus.br/).
Market Opened: Aug 17, 2026, 6:25 AM ET
Volume
$9,316End Date
Oct 4, 2026Market Opened
Aug 17, 2026, 6:25 AM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...A presidential election is scheduled to take place in Amazonas, Brazil on October 4, 2026.
This market will resolve according to the listed candidate who receives the most valid votes in the first round of this election from Amazonas.
Candidates will be primarily ranked by order of valid votes won in Amazonas. If two or more candidates are tied for any position, ties will be broken by alphabetical order of the candidates’ listed full names as they appear in this market. This market will resolve to the candidate that occupies the highest finishing position after applying this ranking.
If the result of this election isn't known definitively by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "Other".
This market will resolve based on the result of the election, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Brazilian government, specifically the Superior Electoral Court (Tribunal Superior Eleitoral, TSE) (e.g., https://dadosabertos.tse.jus.br/).Lula maintains a commanding lead in Amazonas polling for the October 2026 first-round vote, backed by consistent double-digit advantages in state surveys from June through mid-August that show him ahead of Flavio Bolsonaro by roughly nine points. His position draws from established support across the state's interior municipalities, which account for nearly half the electorate, alongside national campaign momentum following the legalization of presidential candidacies on August 16. Flavio Bolsonaro, the Liberal Party nominee and primary right-wing contender, consolidates much of the remaining vote but trails in Amazonas-specific data despite stronger showings in other northern states. Minor candidates including Ronaldo Caiado, Romeu Zema, Renan Santos, and Augusto Cury register only low single digits or less in regional samples, limiting any path to first place. An offshore oil discovery near the Amazon coast has provided Lula additional visibility on development issues in the region, while the overall race remains early with free airtime set to begin later this month.
A presidential election is scheduled to take place in Amazonas, Brazil on October 4, 2026.
This market will resolve according to the listed candidate who receives the most valid votes in the first round of this election from Amazonas.
Candidates will be primarily ranked by order of valid votes won in Amazonas. If two or more candidates are tied for any position, ties will be broken by alphabetical order of the candidates’ listed full names as they appear in this market. This market will resolve to the candidate that occupies the highest finishing position after applying this ranking.
If the result of this election isn't known definitively by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "Other".
This market will resolve based on the result of the election, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Brazilian government, specifically the Superior Electoral Court (Tribunal Superior Eleitoral, TSE) (e.g., https://dadosabertos.tse.jus.br/).
This market will resolve according to the listed candidate who receives the most valid votes in the first round of this election from Amazonas.
Candidates will be primarily ranked by order of valid votes won in Amazonas. If two or more candidates are tied for any position, ties will be broken by alphabetical order of the candidates’ listed full names as they appear in this market. This market will resolve to the candidate that occupies the highest finishing position after applying this ranking.
If the result of this election isn't known definitively by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "Other".
This market will resolve based on the result of the election, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Brazilian government, specifically the Superior Electoral Court (Tribunal Superior Eleitoral, TSE) (e.g., https://dadosabertos.tse.jus.br/).
Volume
$9,316End Date
Oct 4, 2026Market Opened
Aug 17, 2026, 6:25 AM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...Lula maintains a commanding lead in Amazonas polling for the October 2026 first-round vote, backed by consistent double-digit advantages in state surveys from June through mid-August that show him ahead of Flavio Bolsonaro by roughly nine points. His position draws from established support across the state's interior municipalities, which account for nearly half the electorate, alongside national campaign momentum following the legalization of presidential candidacies on August 16. Flavio Bolsonaro, the Liberal Party nominee and primary right-wing contender, consolidates much of the remaining vote but trails in Amazonas-specific data despite stronger showings in other northern states. Minor candidates including Ronaldo Caiado, Romeu Zema, Renan Santos, and Augusto Cury register only low single digits or less in regional samples, limiting any path to first place. An offshore oil discovery near the Amazon coast has provided Lula additional visibility on development issues in the region, while the overall race remains early with free airtime set to begin later this month.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated
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