Lula holds a commanding lead in Alagoas for first place in the 2026 Brazilian presidential election's first round, reflecting the state's consistent Northeast voting patterns favoring the Workers' Party candidate. A June 2026 Real Time Big Data poll showed Lula at 51% against Flávio Bolsonaro's 30%, with other names well behind, aligning with broader regional approval trends for the incumbent's administration. Official party conventions in early August formalized Lula's nomination alongside limited opposition momentum in the state. Trader consensus prices the outcome near certainty because no recent state-level developments have narrowed this gap. A major national economic shift, local scandal, or unexpected surge by a right-leaning contender could still alter dynamics before October voting.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · UpdatedLula 94.8%
Flavio Bolsonaro 2.8%
Pablo Marçal <1%
Clariana Barao <1%
$10,765 Vol.
$10,765 Vol.
Oct 4, 2026
Lula
95%
Flavio Bolsonaro
3%
Pablo Marçal
<1%
Clariana Barao
<1%
Edmilson Costa
<1%
Escritor Augusto Cury
<1%
Hertz Dias
<1%
Rui Costa Pimenta
<1%
Veterinário Wilson Grassi
<1%
Zema
<1%
Renan Santos
<1%
Ronaldo Caiado
<1%
Samara
<1%
Lula 94.8%
Flavio Bolsonaro 2.8%
Pablo Marçal <1%
Clariana Barao <1%
$10,765 Vol.
$10,765 Vol.
Oct 4, 2026
Lula
$5,367 Vol.
95%
Flavio Bolsonaro
$506 Vol.
3%
Pablo Marçal
$476 Vol.
<1%
Clariana Barao
$476 Vol.
<1%
Edmilson Costa
$476 Vol.
<1%
Escritor Augusto Cury
$476 Vol.
<1%
Hertz Dias
$476 Vol.
<1%
Rui Costa Pimenta
$476 Vol.
<1%
Veterinário Wilson Grassi
$476 Vol.
<1%
Zema
$396 Vol.
<1%
Renan Santos
$338 Vol.
<1%
Ronaldo Caiado
$476 Vol.
<1%
Samara
$348 Vol.
<1%
A presidential election is scheduled to take place in Alagoas, Brazil on October 4, 2026.
This market will resolve according to the listed candidate who receives the most valid votes in the first round of this election from Alagoas.
Candidates will be primarily ranked by order of valid votes won in Alagoas. If two or more candidates are tied for any position, ties will be broken by alphabetical order of the candidates’ listed full names as they appear in this market. This market will resolve to the candidate that occupies the highest finishing position after applying this ranking.
If the result of this election isn't known definitively by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "Other".
This market will resolve based on the result of the election, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Brazilian government, specifically the Superior Electoral Court (Tribunal Superior Eleitoral, TSE) (e.g., https://dadosabertos.tse.jus.br/).Lula holds a commanding lead in Alagoas for first place in the 2026 Brazilian presidential election's first round, reflecting the state's consistent Northeast voting patterns favoring the Workers' Party candidate. A June 2026 Real Time Big Data poll showed Lula at 51% against Flávio Bolsonaro's 30%, with other names well behind, aligning with broader regional approval trends for the incumbent's administration. Official party conventions in early August formalized Lula's nomination alongside limited opposition momentum in the state. Trader consensus prices the outcome near certainty because no recent state-level developments have narrowed this gap. A major national economic shift, local scandal, or unexpected surge by a right-leaning contender could still alter dynamics before October voting.
A presidential election is scheduled to take place in Alagoas, Brazil on October 4, 2026.
This market will resolve according to the listed candidate who receives the most valid votes in the first round of this election from Alagoas.
Candidates will be primarily ranked by order of valid votes won in Alagoas. If two or more candidates are tied for any position, ties will be broken by alphabetical order of the candidates’ listed full names as they appear in this market. This market will resolve to the candidate that occupies the highest finishing position after applying this ranking.
If the result of this election isn't known definitively by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "Other".
This market will resolve based on the result of the election, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Brazilian government, specifically the Superior Electoral Court (Tribunal Superior Eleitoral, TSE) (e.g., https://dadosabertos.tse.jus.br/).
This market will resolve according to the listed candidate who receives the most valid votes in the first round of this election from Alagoas.
Candidates will be primarily ranked by order of valid votes won in Alagoas. If two or more candidates are tied for any position, ties will be broken by alphabetical order of the candidates’ listed full names as they appear in this market. This market will resolve to the candidate that occupies the highest finishing position after applying this ranking.
If the result of this election isn't known definitively by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "Other".
This market will resolve based on the result of the election, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Brazilian government, specifically the Superior Electoral Court (Tribunal Superior Eleitoral, TSE) (e.g., https://dadosabertos.tse.jus.br/).
Market Opened: Aug 17, 2026, 6:24 AM ET
Volume
$10,765End Date
Oct 4, 2026Market Opened
Aug 17, 2026, 6:24 AM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...A presidential election is scheduled to take place in Alagoas, Brazil on October 4, 2026.
This market will resolve according to the listed candidate who receives the most valid votes in the first round of this election from Alagoas.
Candidates will be primarily ranked by order of valid votes won in Alagoas. If two or more candidates are tied for any position, ties will be broken by alphabetical order of the candidates’ listed full names as they appear in this market. This market will resolve to the candidate that occupies the highest finishing position after applying this ranking.
If the result of this election isn't known definitively by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "Other".
This market will resolve based on the result of the election, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Brazilian government, specifically the Superior Electoral Court (Tribunal Superior Eleitoral, TSE) (e.g., https://dadosabertos.tse.jus.br/).Lula holds a commanding lead in Alagoas for first place in the 2026 Brazilian presidential election's first round, reflecting the state's consistent Northeast voting patterns favoring the Workers' Party candidate. A June 2026 Real Time Big Data poll showed Lula at 51% against Flávio Bolsonaro's 30%, with other names well behind, aligning with broader regional approval trends for the incumbent's administration. Official party conventions in early August formalized Lula's nomination alongside limited opposition momentum in the state. Trader consensus prices the outcome near certainty because no recent state-level developments have narrowed this gap. A major national economic shift, local scandal, or unexpected surge by a right-leaning contender could still alter dynamics before October voting.
A presidential election is scheduled to take place in Alagoas, Brazil on October 4, 2026.
This market will resolve according to the listed candidate who receives the most valid votes in the first round of this election from Alagoas.
Candidates will be primarily ranked by order of valid votes won in Alagoas. If two or more candidates are tied for any position, ties will be broken by alphabetical order of the candidates’ listed full names as they appear in this market. This market will resolve to the candidate that occupies the highest finishing position after applying this ranking.
If the result of this election isn't known definitively by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "Other".
This market will resolve based on the result of the election, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Brazilian government, specifically the Superior Electoral Court (Tribunal Superior Eleitoral, TSE) (e.g., https://dadosabertos.tse.jus.br/).
This market will resolve according to the listed candidate who receives the most valid votes in the first round of this election from Alagoas.
Candidates will be primarily ranked by order of valid votes won in Alagoas. If two or more candidates are tied for any position, ties will be broken by alphabetical order of the candidates’ listed full names as they appear in this market. This market will resolve to the candidate that occupies the highest finishing position after applying this ranking.
If the result of this election isn't known definitively by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "Other".
This market will resolve based on the result of the election, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Brazilian government, specifically the Superior Electoral Court (Tribunal Superior Eleitoral, TSE) (e.g., https://dadosabertos.tse.jus.br/).
Volume
$10,765End Date
Oct 4, 2026Market Opened
Aug 17, 2026, 6:24 AM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...Lula holds a commanding lead in Alagoas for first place in the 2026 Brazilian presidential election's first round, reflecting the state's consistent Northeast voting patterns favoring the Workers' Party candidate. A June 2026 Real Time Big Data poll showed Lula at 51% against Flávio Bolsonaro's 30%, with other names well behind, aligning with broader regional approval trends for the incumbent's administration. Official party conventions in early August formalized Lula's nomination alongside limited opposition momentum in the state. Trader consensus prices the outcome near certainty because no recent state-level developments have narrowed this gap. A major national economic shift, local scandal, or unexpected surge by a right-leaning contender could still alter dynamics before October voting.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated
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