Rui Costa maintains a commanding lead in trader consensus for first place in Bahia’s October 4, 2026 Senate contest, driven by consistent polling advantages over fellow PT senator Jaques Wagner and other contenders. Recent surveys, including Paraná Pesquisas in early August, placed Costa well ahead in vote intention for the two available seats, reflecting his profile as former governor and Lula administration chief of staff. Campaign activities launched mid-August have not altered this positioning, with no major shifts reported from opposition candidates such as João Roma or Angelo Coronel. Low probabilities for most listed names mirror limited name recognition or polling support outside the top tier, while Wagner’s trailing share aligns with his narrower margins in consolidated scenarios. The market reflects trader assessment of these early indicators ahead of further debates and regional rallies.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · UpdatedRui Costa 72%
Jaques Wagner 16.9%
Angelo Coronel 4.3%
João Roma 1.8%
$15,874 Vol.
$15,874 Vol.
Oct 4, 2026
Rui Costa
72%
Jaques Wagner
17%
Angelo Coronel
4%
João Roma
18%
Carlos Sodré
<1%
Gregorio Gould
<1%
Professora Delliana
<1%
Marcelo Carvalho
<1%
Marcelo Millet
<1%
Marcelo Santtana
<1%
Rui Costa 72%
Jaques Wagner 16.9%
Angelo Coronel 4.3%
João Roma 1.8%
$15,874 Vol.
$15,874 Vol.
Oct 4, 2026
Rui Costa
$5,395 Vol.
72%
Jaques Wagner
$3,910 Vol.
17%
Angelo Coronel
$989 Vol.
4%
João Roma
$1,355 Vol.
18%
Carlos Sodré
$774 Vol.
<1%
Gregorio Gould
$608 Vol.
<1%
Professora Delliana
$629 Vol.
<1%
Marcelo Carvalho
$741 Vol.
<1%
Marcelo Millet
$729 Vol.
<1%
Marcelo Santtana
$746 Vol.
<1%
The Brazilian Federal Senate election for Bahia is scheduled to take place on October 4, 2026.
This market will resolve according to the candidate who wins the most valid votes of any candidate at the specified election.
Candidates will be primarily ranked by order of valid votes won. If two or more candidates are tied for any position, ties will be broken by alphabetical order of the candidates’ listed full names as they appear in this market. This market will resolve to the candidate that occupies the highest finishing position after applying this ranking.
If the result of this election isn't definitively known by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "Other".
This market will resolve based on the result of the election, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Brazilian government, specifically the Superior Electoral Court (Tribunal Superior Eleitoral, TSE) (e.g., www.tse.jus.br/eleicoes/resultados-eleicoes).Rui Costa maintains a commanding lead in trader consensus for first place in Bahia’s October 4, 2026 Senate contest, driven by consistent polling advantages over fellow PT senator Jaques Wagner and other contenders. Recent surveys, including Paraná Pesquisas in early August, placed Costa well ahead in vote intention for the two available seats, reflecting his profile as former governor and Lula administration chief of staff. Campaign activities launched mid-August have not altered this positioning, with no major shifts reported from opposition candidates such as João Roma or Angelo Coronel. Low probabilities for most listed names mirror limited name recognition or polling support outside the top tier, while Wagner’s trailing share aligns with his narrower margins in consolidated scenarios. The market reflects trader assessment of these early indicators ahead of further debates and regional rallies.
The Brazilian Federal Senate election for Bahia is scheduled to take place on October 4, 2026.
This market will resolve according to the candidate who wins the most valid votes of any candidate at the specified election.
Candidates will be primarily ranked by order of valid votes won. If two or more candidates are tied for any position, ties will be broken by alphabetical order of the candidates’ listed full names as they appear in this market. This market will resolve to the candidate that occupies the highest finishing position after applying this ranking.
If the result of this election isn't definitively known by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "Other".
This market will resolve based on the result of the election, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Brazilian government, specifically the Superior Electoral Court (Tribunal Superior Eleitoral, TSE) (e.g., www.tse.jus.br/eleicoes/resultados-eleicoes).
This market will resolve according to the candidate who wins the most valid votes of any candidate at the specified election.
Candidates will be primarily ranked by order of valid votes won. If two or more candidates are tied for any position, ties will be broken by alphabetical order of the candidates’ listed full names as they appear in this market. This market will resolve to the candidate that occupies the highest finishing position after applying this ranking.
If the result of this election isn't definitively known by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "Other".
This market will resolve based on the result of the election, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Brazilian government, specifically the Superior Electoral Court (Tribunal Superior Eleitoral, TSE) (e.g., www.tse.jus.br/eleicoes/resultados-eleicoes).
Market Opened: Aug 17, 2026, 5:55 AM ET
Volume
$15,874End Date
Oct 4, 2026Market Opened
Aug 17, 2026, 5:55 AM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...The Brazilian Federal Senate election for Bahia is scheduled to take place on October 4, 2026.
This market will resolve according to the candidate who wins the most valid votes of any candidate at the specified election.
Candidates will be primarily ranked by order of valid votes won. If two or more candidates are tied for any position, ties will be broken by alphabetical order of the candidates’ listed full names as they appear in this market. This market will resolve to the candidate that occupies the highest finishing position after applying this ranking.
If the result of this election isn't definitively known by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "Other".
This market will resolve based on the result of the election, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Brazilian government, specifically the Superior Electoral Court (Tribunal Superior Eleitoral, TSE) (e.g., www.tse.jus.br/eleicoes/resultados-eleicoes).Rui Costa maintains a commanding lead in trader consensus for first place in Bahia’s October 4, 2026 Senate contest, driven by consistent polling advantages over fellow PT senator Jaques Wagner and other contenders. Recent surveys, including Paraná Pesquisas in early August, placed Costa well ahead in vote intention for the two available seats, reflecting his profile as former governor and Lula administration chief of staff. Campaign activities launched mid-August have not altered this positioning, with no major shifts reported from opposition candidates such as João Roma or Angelo Coronel. Low probabilities for most listed names mirror limited name recognition or polling support outside the top tier, while Wagner’s trailing share aligns with his narrower margins in consolidated scenarios. The market reflects trader assessment of these early indicators ahead of further debates and regional rallies.
The Brazilian Federal Senate election for Bahia is scheduled to take place on October 4, 2026.
This market will resolve according to the candidate who wins the most valid votes of any candidate at the specified election.
Candidates will be primarily ranked by order of valid votes won. If two or more candidates are tied for any position, ties will be broken by alphabetical order of the candidates’ listed full names as they appear in this market. This market will resolve to the candidate that occupies the highest finishing position after applying this ranking.
If the result of this election isn't definitively known by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "Other".
This market will resolve based on the result of the election, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Brazilian government, specifically the Superior Electoral Court (Tribunal Superior Eleitoral, TSE) (e.g., www.tse.jus.br/eleicoes/resultados-eleicoes).
This market will resolve according to the candidate who wins the most valid votes of any candidate at the specified election.
Candidates will be primarily ranked by order of valid votes won. If two or more candidates are tied for any position, ties will be broken by alphabetical order of the candidates’ listed full names as they appear in this market. This market will resolve to the candidate that occupies the highest finishing position after applying this ranking.
If the result of this election isn't definitively known by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "Other".
This market will resolve based on the result of the election, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Brazilian government, specifically the Superior Electoral Court (Tribunal Superior Eleitoral, TSE) (e.g., www.tse.jus.br/eleicoes/resultados-eleicoes).
Volume
$15,874End Date
Oct 4, 2026Market Opened
Aug 17, 2026, 5:55 AM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...Rui Costa maintains a commanding lead in trader consensus for first place in Bahia’s October 4, 2026 Senate contest, driven by consistent polling advantages over fellow PT senator Jaques Wagner and other contenders. Recent surveys, including Paraná Pesquisas in early August, placed Costa well ahead in vote intention for the two available seats, reflecting his profile as former governor and Lula administration chief of staff. Campaign activities launched mid-August have not altered this positioning, with no major shifts reported from opposition candidates such as João Roma or Angelo Coronel. Low probabilities for most listed names mirror limited name recognition or polling support outside the top tier, while Wagner’s trailing share aligns with his narrower margins in consolidated scenarios. The market reflects trader assessment of these early indicators ahead of further debates and regional rallies.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated
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