JHC (João Henrique Caldas, PSDB) holds a 65.5% implied probability in the Alagoas gubernatorial race, ahead of Renan Filho (MDB) at 34.5%, with minor candidates such as Márcio Jambo and Lenilda Luna below 1%. Recent registered polls, including TDL’s June survey showing JHC at 52% to Renan Filho’s 37%, reflect JHC’s sustained lead built from his strong performance as Maceió mayor. Renan Filho, a two-term former governor and ex-minister, retains backing in much of the interior but trails in capital-region preferences. Key late-August developments include both candidates finalizing vice-governor selections tied to the Arapiraca political group and the Ministério Público Eleitoral’s challenge to Renan Filho’s running mate over alleged post-resignation officeholding. First-round voting occurs October 4, 2026.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · UpdatedJHC 66%
Renan Filho 35%
Márcio Jambo <1%
Lenilda Luna <1%
NEW
NEW
Oct 4, 2026
JHC
66%
Renan Filho
35%
Márcio Jambo
1%
Lenilda Luna
<1%
JHC 66%
Renan Filho 35%
Márcio Jambo <1%
Lenilda Luna <1%
NEW
NEW
Oct 4, 2026
JHC
$1,773 Vol.
66%
Renan Filho
$2,077 Vol.
35%
Márcio Jambo
$149 Vol.
1%
Lenilda Luna
$169 Vol.
<1%
The Alagoas gubernatorial election is scheduled to take place in Brazil on October 4, 2026, with a runoff on October 25, 2026, if no candidate receives a majority of the valid votes in the first round.
This market will resolve according to the candidate who wins this election.
Temporary, interim, or placeholder governors appointed by any means before the specified election will not be considered.
If the result of this election isn't known by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "Other".
This market will resolve based on the result of the election, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Brazilian government, specifically the Superior Electoral Court (Tribunal Superior Eleitoral, TSE) (e.g., www.tse.jus.br/eleicoes/resultados-eleicoes).JHC (João Henrique Caldas, PSDB) holds a 65.5% implied probability in the Alagoas gubernatorial race, ahead of Renan Filho (MDB) at 34.5%, with minor candidates such as Márcio Jambo and Lenilda Luna below 1%. Recent registered polls, including TDL’s June survey showing JHC at 52% to Renan Filho’s 37%, reflect JHC’s sustained lead built from his strong performance as Maceió mayor. Renan Filho, a two-term former governor and ex-minister, retains backing in much of the interior but trails in capital-region preferences. Key late-August developments include both candidates finalizing vice-governor selections tied to the Arapiraca political group and the Ministério Público Eleitoral’s challenge to Renan Filho’s running mate over alleged post-resignation officeholding. First-round voting occurs October 4, 2026.
The Alagoas gubernatorial election is scheduled to take place in Brazil on October 4, 2026, with a runoff on October 25, 2026, if no candidate receives a majority of the valid votes in the first round.
This market will resolve according to the candidate who wins this election.
Temporary, interim, or placeholder governors appointed by any means before the specified election will not be considered.
If the result of this election isn't known by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "Other".
This market will resolve based on the result of the election, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Brazilian government, specifically the Superior Electoral Court (Tribunal Superior Eleitoral, TSE) (e.g., www.tse.jus.br/eleicoes/resultados-eleicoes).
This market will resolve according to the candidate who wins this election.
Temporary, interim, or placeholder governors appointed by any means before the specified election will not be considered.
If the result of this election isn't known by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "Other".
This market will resolve based on the result of the election, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Brazilian government, specifically the Superior Electoral Court (Tribunal Superior Eleitoral, TSE) (e.g., www.tse.jus.br/eleicoes/resultados-eleicoes).
Market Opened: Aug 17, 2026, 5:27 AM ET
Volume
$4,168End Date
Oct 4, 2026Market Opened
Aug 17, 2026, 5:27 AM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...The Alagoas gubernatorial election is scheduled to take place in Brazil on October 4, 2026, with a runoff on October 25, 2026, if no candidate receives a majority of the valid votes in the first round.
This market will resolve according to the candidate who wins this election.
Temporary, interim, or placeholder governors appointed by any means before the specified election will not be considered.
If the result of this election isn't known by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "Other".
This market will resolve based on the result of the election, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Brazilian government, specifically the Superior Electoral Court (Tribunal Superior Eleitoral, TSE) (e.g., www.tse.jus.br/eleicoes/resultados-eleicoes).JHC (João Henrique Caldas, PSDB) holds a 65.5% implied probability in the Alagoas gubernatorial race, ahead of Renan Filho (MDB) at 34.5%, with minor candidates such as Márcio Jambo and Lenilda Luna below 1%. Recent registered polls, including TDL’s June survey showing JHC at 52% to Renan Filho’s 37%, reflect JHC’s sustained lead built from his strong performance as Maceió mayor. Renan Filho, a two-term former governor and ex-minister, retains backing in much of the interior but trails in capital-region preferences. Key late-August developments include both candidates finalizing vice-governor selections tied to the Arapiraca political group and the Ministério Público Eleitoral’s challenge to Renan Filho’s running mate over alleged post-resignation officeholding. First-round voting occurs October 4, 2026.
The Alagoas gubernatorial election is scheduled to take place in Brazil on October 4, 2026, with a runoff on October 25, 2026, if no candidate receives a majority of the valid votes in the first round.
This market will resolve according to the candidate who wins this election.
Temporary, interim, or placeholder governors appointed by any means before the specified election will not be considered.
If the result of this election isn't known by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "Other".
This market will resolve based on the result of the election, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Brazilian government, specifically the Superior Electoral Court (Tribunal Superior Eleitoral, TSE) (e.g., www.tse.jus.br/eleicoes/resultados-eleicoes).
This market will resolve according to the candidate who wins this election.
Temporary, interim, or placeholder governors appointed by any means before the specified election will not be considered.
If the result of this election isn't known by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "Other".
This market will resolve based on the result of the election, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Brazilian government, specifically the Superior Electoral Court (Tribunal Superior Eleitoral, TSE) (e.g., www.tse.jus.br/eleicoes/resultados-eleicoes).
Volume
$4,168End Date
Oct 4, 2026Market Opened
Aug 17, 2026, 5:27 AM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...JHC (João Henrique Caldas, PSDB) holds a 65.5% implied probability in the Alagoas gubernatorial race, ahead of Renan Filho (MDB) at 34.5%, with minor candidates such as Márcio Jambo and Lenilda Luna below 1%. Recent registered polls, including TDL’s June survey showing JHC at 52% to Renan Filho’s 37%, reflect JHC’s sustained lead built from his strong performance as Maceió mayor. Renan Filho, a two-term former governor and ex-minister, retains backing in much of the interior but trails in capital-region preferences. Key late-August developments include both candidates finalizing vice-governor selections tied to the Arapiraca political group and the Ministério Público Eleitoral’s challenge to Renan Filho’s running mate over alleged post-resignation officeholding. First-round voting occurs October 4, 2026.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated
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