Arthur Henrique (PL) holds an 89.5% implied probability in the Roraima governor market due to his commanding position ahead of the October 4, 2026, first-round vote. As the reelected mayor of Boa Vista who stepped down to run, he secured over 60% in the June 2026 supplementary election for the interim term despite sub judice status over desincompatibilização timing, outpacing Soldado Sampaio (Republicanos) by a wide margin. Recent polling averages show him near 60% support against a fragmented field that includes Farah Mesquita (Solidariedade), Rosi Aires, and Clébio Genuíno (PCO), with his Liberal Party base and statewide name recognition providing a clear path to an absolute majority. Legal uncertainty around his eligibility remains the primary variable that could alter the outcome before election day, though no newer developments have shifted the trader consensus reflected in current pricing.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · UpdatedArthur Henrique 90%
Farah Mesquita 2.1%
Rosi Aires 2.0%
Soldado Sampaio 1.9%
NEW
NEW
Oct 4, 2026
Arthur Henrique
90%
Farah Mesquita
2%
Rosi Aires
2%
Soldado Sampaio
2%
Clébio Genuíno
1%
Arthur Henrique 90%
Farah Mesquita 2.1%
Rosi Aires 2.0%
Soldado Sampaio 1.9%
NEW
NEW
Oct 4, 2026
Arthur Henrique
$2,927 Vol.
90%
Farah Mesquita
$153 Vol.
2%
Rosi Aires
$222 Vol.
2%
Soldado Sampaio
$183 Vol.
2%
Clébio Genuíno
$281 Vol.
1%
The Roraima gubernatorial election is scheduled to take place in Brazil on October 4, 2026, with a runoff on October 25, 2026, if no candidate receives a majority of the valid votes in the first round.
This market will resolve according to the candidate who wins this election.
Temporary, interim, or placeholder governors appointed by any means before the specified election will not be considered.
If the result of this election isn't known by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "Other".
This market will resolve based on the result of the election, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Brazilian government, specifically the Superior Electoral Court (Tribunal Superior Eleitoral, TSE) (e.g., www.tse.jus.br/eleicoes/resultados-eleicoes).Arthur Henrique (PL) holds an 89.5% implied probability in the Roraima governor market due to his commanding position ahead of the October 4, 2026, first-round vote. As the reelected mayor of Boa Vista who stepped down to run, he secured over 60% in the June 2026 supplementary election for the interim term despite sub judice status over desincompatibilização timing, outpacing Soldado Sampaio (Republicanos) by a wide margin. Recent polling averages show him near 60% support against a fragmented field that includes Farah Mesquita (Solidariedade), Rosi Aires, and Clébio Genuíno (PCO), with his Liberal Party base and statewide name recognition providing a clear path to an absolute majority. Legal uncertainty around his eligibility remains the primary variable that could alter the outcome before election day, though no newer developments have shifted the trader consensus reflected in current pricing.
The Roraima gubernatorial election is scheduled to take place in Brazil on October 4, 2026, with a runoff on October 25, 2026, if no candidate receives a majority of the valid votes in the first round.
This market will resolve according to the candidate who wins this election.
Temporary, interim, or placeholder governors appointed by any means before the specified election will not be considered.
If the result of this election isn't known by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "Other".
This market will resolve based on the result of the election, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Brazilian government, specifically the Superior Electoral Court (Tribunal Superior Eleitoral, TSE) (e.g., www.tse.jus.br/eleicoes/resultados-eleicoes).
This market will resolve according to the candidate who wins this election.
Temporary, interim, or placeholder governors appointed by any means before the specified election will not be considered.
If the result of this election isn't known by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "Other".
This market will resolve based on the result of the election, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Brazilian government, specifically the Superior Electoral Court (Tribunal Superior Eleitoral, TSE) (e.g., www.tse.jus.br/eleicoes/resultados-eleicoes).
Market Opened: Aug 17, 2026, 5:38 AM ET
Volume
$3,766End Date
Oct 4, 2026Market Opened
Aug 17, 2026, 5:38 AM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...The Roraima gubernatorial election is scheduled to take place in Brazil on October 4, 2026, with a runoff on October 25, 2026, if no candidate receives a majority of the valid votes in the first round.
This market will resolve according to the candidate who wins this election.
Temporary, interim, or placeholder governors appointed by any means before the specified election will not be considered.
If the result of this election isn't known by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "Other".
This market will resolve based on the result of the election, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Brazilian government, specifically the Superior Electoral Court (Tribunal Superior Eleitoral, TSE) (e.g., www.tse.jus.br/eleicoes/resultados-eleicoes).Arthur Henrique (PL) holds an 89.5% implied probability in the Roraima governor market due to his commanding position ahead of the October 4, 2026, first-round vote. As the reelected mayor of Boa Vista who stepped down to run, he secured over 60% in the June 2026 supplementary election for the interim term despite sub judice status over desincompatibilização timing, outpacing Soldado Sampaio (Republicanos) by a wide margin. Recent polling averages show him near 60% support against a fragmented field that includes Farah Mesquita (Solidariedade), Rosi Aires, and Clébio Genuíno (PCO), with his Liberal Party base and statewide name recognition providing a clear path to an absolute majority. Legal uncertainty around his eligibility remains the primary variable that could alter the outcome before election day, though no newer developments have shifted the trader consensus reflected in current pricing.
The Roraima gubernatorial election is scheduled to take place in Brazil on October 4, 2026, with a runoff on October 25, 2026, if no candidate receives a majority of the valid votes in the first round.
This market will resolve according to the candidate who wins this election.
Temporary, interim, or placeholder governors appointed by any means before the specified election will not be considered.
If the result of this election isn't known by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "Other".
This market will resolve based on the result of the election, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Brazilian government, specifically the Superior Electoral Court (Tribunal Superior Eleitoral, TSE) (e.g., www.tse.jus.br/eleicoes/resultados-eleicoes).
This market will resolve according to the candidate who wins this election.
Temporary, interim, or placeholder governors appointed by any means before the specified election will not be considered.
If the result of this election isn't known by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "Other".
This market will resolve based on the result of the election, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Brazilian government, specifically the Superior Electoral Court (Tribunal Superior Eleitoral, TSE) (e.g., www.tse.jus.br/eleicoes/resultados-eleicoes).
Volume
$3,766End Date
Oct 4, 2026Market Opened
Aug 17, 2026, 5:38 AM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...Arthur Henrique (PL) holds an 89.5% implied probability in the Roraima governor market due to his commanding position ahead of the October 4, 2026, first-round vote. As the reelected mayor of Boa Vista who stepped down to run, he secured over 60% in the June 2026 supplementary election for the interim term despite sub judice status over desincompatibilização timing, outpacing Soldado Sampaio (Republicanos) by a wide margin. Recent polling averages show him near 60% support against a fragmented field that includes Farah Mesquita (Solidariedade), Rosi Aires, and Clébio Genuíno (PCO), with his Liberal Party base and statewide name recognition providing a clear path to an absolute majority. Legal uncertainty around his eligibility remains the primary variable that could alter the outcome before election day, though no newer developments have shifted the trader consensus reflected in current pricing.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated
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