Wellington Fagundes maintains a narrow lead in trader consensus for the Mato Grosso gubernatorial race, reflecting early polling advantages and recent campaign activity ahead of the October 4, 2026, first round. Otaviano Pivetta, positioned as the main challenger with ties to the current state administration, trails but keeps the contest competitive through established party networks and regional support in this agriculture-heavy state. The field remains fragmented with low probabilities for other names, underscoring the potential for a runoff if no candidate secures an outright majority. Recent simultaneous committee launches by Fagundes and ongoing vote intention surveys have sustained momentum without decisive separation, while standard Brazilian electoral rules on coalitions and second-round thresholds continue to shape probability assessments.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · UpdatedWellington Fagundes 55%
Otaviano Pivetta 40%
Rafaell Milas <1%
Mauricio Coelho <1%
$16,252 Vol.
$16,252 Vol.
Oct 4, 2026
Wellington Fagundes
55%
Otaviano Pivetta
40%
Rafaell Milas
<1%
Mauricio Coelho
<1%
Doutora Natasha
<1%
Sargento Laudicério
<1%
Wellington Fagundes 55%
Otaviano Pivetta 40%
Rafaell Milas <1%
Mauricio Coelho <1%
$16,252 Vol.
$16,252 Vol.
Oct 4, 2026
Wellington Fagundes
$10,621 Vol.
55%
Otaviano Pivetta
$2,537 Vol.
40%
Rafaell Milas
$869 Vol.
<1%
Mauricio Coelho
$750 Vol.
<1%
Doutora Natasha
$786 Vol.
<1%
Sargento Laudicério
$689 Vol.
<1%
The Mato Grosso gubernatorial election is scheduled to take place in Brazil on October 4, 2026, with a runoff on October 25, 2026, if no candidate receives a majority of the valid votes in the first round.
This market will resolve according to the candidate who wins this election.
Temporary, interim, or placeholder governors appointed by any means before the specified election will not be considered.
If the result of this election isn't known by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "Other".
This market will resolve based on the result of the election, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Brazilian government, specifically the Superior Electoral Court (Tribunal Superior Eleitoral, TSE) (e.g., www.tse.jus.br/eleicoes/resultados-eleicoes).Wellington Fagundes maintains a narrow lead in trader consensus for the Mato Grosso gubernatorial race, reflecting early polling advantages and recent campaign activity ahead of the October 4, 2026, first round. Otaviano Pivetta, positioned as the main challenger with ties to the current state administration, trails but keeps the contest competitive through established party networks and regional support in this agriculture-heavy state. The field remains fragmented with low probabilities for other names, underscoring the potential for a runoff if no candidate secures an outright majority. Recent simultaneous committee launches by Fagundes and ongoing vote intention surveys have sustained momentum without decisive separation, while standard Brazilian electoral rules on coalitions and second-round thresholds continue to shape probability assessments.
The Mato Grosso gubernatorial election is scheduled to take place in Brazil on October 4, 2026, with a runoff on October 25, 2026, if no candidate receives a majority of the valid votes in the first round.
This market will resolve according to the candidate who wins this election.
Temporary, interim, or placeholder governors appointed by any means before the specified election will not be considered.
If the result of this election isn't known by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "Other".
This market will resolve based on the result of the election, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Brazilian government, specifically the Superior Electoral Court (Tribunal Superior Eleitoral, TSE) (e.g., www.tse.jus.br/eleicoes/resultados-eleicoes).
This market will resolve according to the candidate who wins this election.
Temporary, interim, or placeholder governors appointed by any means before the specified election will not be considered.
If the result of this election isn't known by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "Other".
This market will resolve based on the result of the election, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Brazilian government, specifically the Superior Electoral Court (Tribunal Superior Eleitoral, TSE) (e.g., www.tse.jus.br/eleicoes/resultados-eleicoes).
Market Opened: Aug 17, 2026, 5:34 AM ET
Volume
$16,252End Date
Oct 4, 2026Market Opened
Aug 17, 2026, 5:34 AM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...The Mato Grosso gubernatorial election is scheduled to take place in Brazil on October 4, 2026, with a runoff on October 25, 2026, if no candidate receives a majority of the valid votes in the first round.
This market will resolve according to the candidate who wins this election.
Temporary, interim, or placeholder governors appointed by any means before the specified election will not be considered.
If the result of this election isn't known by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "Other".
This market will resolve based on the result of the election, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Brazilian government, specifically the Superior Electoral Court (Tribunal Superior Eleitoral, TSE) (e.g., www.tse.jus.br/eleicoes/resultados-eleicoes).Wellington Fagundes maintains a narrow lead in trader consensus for the Mato Grosso gubernatorial race, reflecting early polling advantages and recent campaign activity ahead of the October 4, 2026, first round. Otaviano Pivetta, positioned as the main challenger with ties to the current state administration, trails but keeps the contest competitive through established party networks and regional support in this agriculture-heavy state. The field remains fragmented with low probabilities for other names, underscoring the potential for a runoff if no candidate secures an outright majority. Recent simultaneous committee launches by Fagundes and ongoing vote intention surveys have sustained momentum without decisive separation, while standard Brazilian electoral rules on coalitions and second-round thresholds continue to shape probability assessments.
The Mato Grosso gubernatorial election is scheduled to take place in Brazil on October 4, 2026, with a runoff on October 25, 2026, if no candidate receives a majority of the valid votes in the first round.
This market will resolve according to the candidate who wins this election.
Temporary, interim, or placeholder governors appointed by any means before the specified election will not be considered.
If the result of this election isn't known by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "Other".
This market will resolve based on the result of the election, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Brazilian government, specifically the Superior Electoral Court (Tribunal Superior Eleitoral, TSE) (e.g., www.tse.jus.br/eleicoes/resultados-eleicoes).
This market will resolve according to the candidate who wins this election.
Temporary, interim, or placeholder governors appointed by any means before the specified election will not be considered.
If the result of this election isn't known by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "Other".
This market will resolve based on the result of the election, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Brazilian government, specifically the Superior Electoral Court (Tribunal Superior Eleitoral, TSE) (e.g., www.tse.jus.br/eleicoes/resultados-eleicoes).
Volume
$16,252End Date
Oct 4, 2026Market Opened
Aug 17, 2026, 5:34 AM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...Wellington Fagundes maintains a narrow lead in trader consensus for the Mato Grosso gubernatorial race, reflecting early polling advantages and recent campaign activity ahead of the October 4, 2026, first round. Otaviano Pivetta, positioned as the main challenger with ties to the current state administration, trails but keeps the contest competitive through established party networks and regional support in this agriculture-heavy state. The field remains fragmented with low probabilities for other names, underscoring the potential for a runoff if no candidate secures an outright majority. Recent simultaneous committee launches by Fagundes and ongoing vote intention surveys have sustained momentum without decisive separation, while standard Brazilian electoral rules on coalitions and second-round thresholds continue to shape probability assessments.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated
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