The race for Mato Grosso governor remains tightly contested ahead of the October 4 first round, with Otaviano Pivetta (Republicanos) holding a narrow numerical lead over Wellington Fagundes (PL) in the latest Paraná Pesquisas survey at 39% to 35%—within the 2.6-point margin of error—while a simulated runoff shows a similar technical tie. Pivetta benefits from incumbency after assuming the role in March 2026 following Mauro Mendes’ resignation, plus backing from União Brasil, while Fagundes draws on decades of congressional experience and PL alliances. High undecided voters (over 60% in spontaneous polling), demographic splits, and competing emphases on decentralized governance, agribusiness taxes, infrastructure, and security keep probabilities balanced. Trader pricing reflects this equilibrium, with room for separation from further polling shifts, alliance consolidations, or campaign momentum in the remaining weeks.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · UpdatedWellington Fagundes 55%
Otaviano Pivetta 40%
Rafaell Milas <1%
Mauricio Coelho <1%
$16,252 Vol.
$16,252 Vol.
Oct 4, 2026
Wellington Fagundes
55%
Otaviano Pivetta
40%
Rafaell Milas
<1%
Mauricio Coelho
<1%
Doutora Natasha
<1%
Sargento Laudicério
<1%
Wellington Fagundes 55%
Otaviano Pivetta 40%
Rafaell Milas <1%
Mauricio Coelho <1%
$16,252 Vol.
$16,252 Vol.
Oct 4, 2026
Wellington Fagundes
$10,621 Vol.
55%
Otaviano Pivetta
$2,537 Vol.
40%
Rafaell Milas
$869 Vol.
<1%
Mauricio Coelho
$750 Vol.
<1%
Doutora Natasha
$786 Vol.
<1%
Sargento Laudicério
$689 Vol.
<1%
The Mato Grosso gubernatorial election is scheduled to take place in Brazil on October 4, 2026, with a runoff on October 25, 2026, if no candidate receives a majority of the valid votes in the first round.
This market will resolve according to the candidate who wins this election.
Temporary, interim, or placeholder governors appointed by any means before the specified election will not be considered.
If the result of this election isn't known by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "Other".
This market will resolve based on the result of the election, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Brazilian government, specifically the Superior Electoral Court (Tribunal Superior Eleitoral, TSE) (e.g., www.tse.jus.br/eleicoes/resultados-eleicoes).The race for Mato Grosso governor remains tightly contested ahead of the October 4 first round, with Otaviano Pivetta (Republicanos) holding a narrow numerical lead over Wellington Fagundes (PL) in the latest Paraná Pesquisas survey at 39% to 35%—within the 2.6-point margin of error—while a simulated runoff shows a similar technical tie. Pivetta benefits from incumbency after assuming the role in March 2026 following Mauro Mendes’ resignation, plus backing from União Brasil, while Fagundes draws on decades of congressional experience and PL alliances. High undecided voters (over 60% in spontaneous polling), demographic splits, and competing emphases on decentralized governance, agribusiness taxes, infrastructure, and security keep probabilities balanced. Trader pricing reflects this equilibrium, with room for separation from further polling shifts, alliance consolidations, or campaign momentum in the remaining weeks.
The Mato Grosso gubernatorial election is scheduled to take place in Brazil on October 4, 2026, with a runoff on October 25, 2026, if no candidate receives a majority of the valid votes in the first round.
This market will resolve according to the candidate who wins this election.
Temporary, interim, or placeholder governors appointed by any means before the specified election will not be considered.
If the result of this election isn't known by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "Other".
This market will resolve based on the result of the election, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Brazilian government, specifically the Superior Electoral Court (Tribunal Superior Eleitoral, TSE) (e.g., www.tse.jus.br/eleicoes/resultados-eleicoes).
This market will resolve according to the candidate who wins this election.
Temporary, interim, or placeholder governors appointed by any means before the specified election will not be considered.
If the result of this election isn't known by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "Other".
This market will resolve based on the result of the election, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Brazilian government, specifically the Superior Electoral Court (Tribunal Superior Eleitoral, TSE) (e.g., www.tse.jus.br/eleicoes/resultados-eleicoes).
Market Opened: Aug 17, 2026, 5:34 AM ET
Volume
$16,252End Date
Oct 4, 2026Market Opened
Aug 17, 2026, 5:34 AM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...The Mato Grosso gubernatorial election is scheduled to take place in Brazil on October 4, 2026, with a runoff on October 25, 2026, if no candidate receives a majority of the valid votes in the first round.
This market will resolve according to the candidate who wins this election.
Temporary, interim, or placeholder governors appointed by any means before the specified election will not be considered.
If the result of this election isn't known by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "Other".
This market will resolve based on the result of the election, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Brazilian government, specifically the Superior Electoral Court (Tribunal Superior Eleitoral, TSE) (e.g., www.tse.jus.br/eleicoes/resultados-eleicoes).The race for Mato Grosso governor remains tightly contested ahead of the October 4 first round, with Otaviano Pivetta (Republicanos) holding a narrow numerical lead over Wellington Fagundes (PL) in the latest Paraná Pesquisas survey at 39% to 35%—within the 2.6-point margin of error—while a simulated runoff shows a similar technical tie. Pivetta benefits from incumbency after assuming the role in March 2026 following Mauro Mendes’ resignation, plus backing from União Brasil, while Fagundes draws on decades of congressional experience and PL alliances. High undecided voters (over 60% in spontaneous polling), demographic splits, and competing emphases on decentralized governance, agribusiness taxes, infrastructure, and security keep probabilities balanced. Trader pricing reflects this equilibrium, with room for separation from further polling shifts, alliance consolidations, or campaign momentum in the remaining weeks.
The Mato Grosso gubernatorial election is scheduled to take place in Brazil on October 4, 2026, with a runoff on October 25, 2026, if no candidate receives a majority of the valid votes in the first round.
This market will resolve according to the candidate who wins this election.
Temporary, interim, or placeholder governors appointed by any means before the specified election will not be considered.
If the result of this election isn't known by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "Other".
This market will resolve based on the result of the election, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Brazilian government, specifically the Superior Electoral Court (Tribunal Superior Eleitoral, TSE) (e.g., www.tse.jus.br/eleicoes/resultados-eleicoes).
This market will resolve according to the candidate who wins this election.
Temporary, interim, or placeholder governors appointed by any means before the specified election will not be considered.
If the result of this election isn't known by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "Other".
This market will resolve based on the result of the election, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Brazilian government, specifically the Superior Electoral Court (Tribunal Superior Eleitoral, TSE) (e.g., www.tse.jus.br/eleicoes/resultados-eleicoes).
Volume
$16,252End Date
Oct 4, 2026Market Opened
Aug 17, 2026, 5:34 AM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...The race for Mato Grosso governor remains tightly contested ahead of the October 4 first round, with Otaviano Pivetta (Republicanos) holding a narrow numerical lead over Wellington Fagundes (PL) in the latest Paraná Pesquisas survey at 39% to 35%—within the 2.6-point margin of error—while a simulated runoff shows a similar technical tie. Pivetta benefits from incumbency after assuming the role in March 2026 following Mauro Mendes’ resignation, plus backing from União Brasil, while Fagundes draws on decades of congressional experience and PL alliances. High undecided voters (over 60% in spontaneous polling), demographic splits, and competing emphases on decentralized governance, agribusiness taxes, infrastructure, and security keep probabilities balanced. Trader pricing reflects this equilibrium, with room for separation from further polling shifts, alliance consolidations, or campaign momentum in the remaining weeks.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated
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