**Forecast models for Madrid on August 28 point to a clear night following possible clouds and light rain on the 27th, setting up conditions for moderate radiative cooling under high pressure.** Overnight lows are projected in the 12–16 °C range across sources, with some ensembles showing early-morning readings near 12–13 °C under light southwest winds and low humidity. This places the outcome near the middle of the listed bins, consistent with the closely matched 50 % market-implied odds. Key scientific factors differentiating the bins include the strength of nocturnal radiative cooling (clear skies allow greater long-wave heat loss to space), boundary-layer mixing (light winds limit turbulent warming from aloft), and the dew-point temperature (lower moisture permits faster temperature drops before saturation). Recent model consensus shows a ridge building after Thursday’s disturbance, favoring clearer conditions and potentially pushing the minimum toward the lower end of the 12–16 °C window, while any residual cloud cover or stronger winds would keep readings closer to 15–17 °C. Historical late-August averages near 18 °C provide context, but the current synoptic setup favors a cooler-than-normal night. Updated model runs and official AEMET guidance ahead of the date will be the main drivers shifting trader sentiment across the narrow probability bands.