Recent forecasts from the India Meteorological Department and global models point to minimum temperatures in Lucknow around 27–28°C on August 30, driven by lingering southwest monsoon moisture that sustains high humidity and frequent cloud cover, reducing nocturnal radiative cooling. Persistent dew points near 26–27°C and scattered rain or thunderstorms limit temperature drops, while any breaks in cloudiness or lighter winds could allow modest additional cooling toward 26°C or below. Recent heavy rainfall across Uttar Pradesh has kept soils moist, further moderating overnight lows compared to drier conditions. With market-implied probabilities closely clustered between 27°C and higher outcomes, traders appear focused on short-term variability in overnight cloud thickness and precipitation timing, which official guidance shows can shift the exact minimum by 1–2°C. Updated model runs and IMD briefings ahead of August 30 will likely refine these boundaries.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · UpdatedLowest temperature in Lucknow on August 30?
Lowest temperature in Lucknow on August 30?
31°C or higher 69%
21°C or below 66%
25°C 49%
24°C 48%
NEW
NEW
Aug 30, 2026
21°C or below
66%
22°C
17%
23°C
47%
24°C
48%
25°C
49%
26°C
32%
27°C
32%
28°C
25%
29°C
48%
30°C
2%
31°C or higher
69%
31°C or higher 69%
21°C or below 66%
25°C 49%
24°C 48%
NEW
NEW
Aug 30, 2026
21°C or below
$5 Vol.
66%
22°C
$5 Vol.
17%
23°C
$0 Vol.
47%
24°C
$0 Vol.
48%
25°C
$0 Vol.
49%
26°C
$0 Vol.
32%
27°C
$0 Vol.
32%
28°C
$0 Vol.
25%
29°C
$0 Vol.
48%
30°C
$5 Vol.
2%
31°C or higher
$5 Vol.
69%
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Chaudhary Charan Singh Intl Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 30 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=vilk
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.Recent forecasts from the India Meteorological Department and global models point to minimum temperatures in Lucknow around 27–28°C on August 30, driven by lingering southwest monsoon moisture that sustains high humidity and frequent cloud cover, reducing nocturnal radiative cooling. Persistent dew points near 26–27°C and scattered rain or thunderstorms limit temperature drops, while any breaks in cloudiness or lighter winds could allow modest additional cooling toward 26°C or below. Recent heavy rainfall across Uttar Pradesh has kept soils moist, further moderating overnight lows compared to drier conditions. With market-implied probabilities closely clustered between 27°C and higher outcomes, traders appear focused on short-term variability in overnight cloud thickness and precipitation timing, which official guidance shows can shift the exact minimum by 1–2°C. Updated model runs and IMD briefings ahead of August 30 will likely refine these boundaries.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Chaudhary Charan Singh Intl Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 30 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=vilk
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=vilk
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
Market Opened: Aug 28, 2026, 12:29 AM ET
Volume
$20End Date
Aug 30, 2026Market Opened
Aug 28, 2026, 12:29 AM ETResolution Source
https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=vilkResolver
0x69c47De9D...This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Chaudhary Charan Singh Intl Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 30 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=vilk
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.Recent forecasts from the India Meteorological Department and global models point to minimum temperatures in Lucknow around 27–28°C on August 30, driven by lingering southwest monsoon moisture that sustains high humidity and frequent cloud cover, reducing nocturnal radiative cooling. Persistent dew points near 26–27°C and scattered rain or thunderstorms limit temperature drops, while any breaks in cloudiness or lighter winds could allow modest additional cooling toward 26°C or below. Recent heavy rainfall across Uttar Pradesh has kept soils moist, further moderating overnight lows compared to drier conditions. With market-implied probabilities closely clustered between 27°C and higher outcomes, traders appear focused on short-term variability in overnight cloud thickness and precipitation timing, which official guidance shows can shift the exact minimum by 1–2°C. Updated model runs and IMD briefings ahead of August 30 will likely refine these boundaries.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Chaudhary Charan Singh Intl Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 30 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=vilk
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=vilk
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
Volume
$20End Date
Aug 30, 2026Market Opened
Aug 28, 2026, 12:29 AM ETResolution Source
https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=vilkResolver
0x69c47De9D...Recent forecasts from the India Meteorological Department and global models point to minimum temperatures in Lucknow around 27–28°C on August 30, driven by lingering southwest monsoon moisture that sustains high humidity and frequent cloud cover, reducing nocturnal radiative cooling. Persistent dew points near 26–27°C and scattered rain or thunderstorms limit temperature drops, while any breaks in cloudiness or lighter winds could allow modest additional cooling toward 26°C or below. Recent heavy rainfall across Uttar Pradesh has kept soils moist, further moderating overnight lows compared to drier conditions. With market-implied probabilities closely clustered between 27°C and higher outcomes, traders appear focused on short-term variability in overnight cloud thickness and precipitation timing, which official guidance shows can shift the exact minimum by 1–2°C. Updated model runs and IMD briefings ahead of August 30 will likely refine these boundaries.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated
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