**Recent NWS and model guidance points to a Sunday minimum temperature in Houston right around 78–80 °F, keeping the 76–79 °F bins at the top of the order book.** Clear to partly cloudy skies under a persistent subtropical ridge are allowing modest radiational cooling overnight, but elevated dew points in the low-to-mid 70s and the urban heat-island effect cap how far temperatures can fall. Forecast soundings show light southeast winds and minimal cloud cover after midnight, conditions that normally produce the season’s typical upper-70s lows rather than deeper cooling. The tight clustering of probabilities around 76–79 °F reflects both the narrow expected range and the inherent uncertainty in the final hourly minimum: small shifts in boundary-layer moisture, wind speed, or the exact timing of the low can move the reading one bin either way. Historical climatology (1991–2020 average low of ~75 °F) and the lack of any incoming frontal system or tropical moisture reinforce the current market-implied odds, while the next model runs and updated NWS forecasts remain the key near-term catalysts that could sharpen or shift those probabilities.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · UpdatedLowest temperature in Houston on August 30?
Lowest temperature in Houston on August 30?
69°F or below 44%
86-87°F 42%
88°F or higher 42%
76-77°F 26%
NEW
NEW
Aug 30, 2026
69°F or below
44%
70-71°F
25%
72-73°F
25%
74-75°F
25%
76-77°F
26%
78-79°F
28%
80-81°F
25%
82-83°F
25%
84-85°F
22%
86-87°F
42%
88°F or higher
42%
69°F or below 44%
86-87°F 42%
88°F or higher 42%
76-77°F 26%
NEW
NEW
Aug 30, 2026
69°F or below
$5 Vol.
44%
70-71°F
$0 Vol.
25%
72-73°F
$0 Vol.
25%
74-75°F
$0 Vol.
25%
76-77°F
$0 Vol.
26%
78-79°F
$16 Vol.
28%
80-81°F
$0 Vol.
25%
82-83°F
$0 Vol.
25%
84-85°F
$0 Vol.
22%
86-87°F
$5 Vol.
42%
88°F or higher
$5 Vol.
42%
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded by NOAA at the William P. Hobby Airport Station in degrees Fahrenheit on 30 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=khou
This market will resolve off of the Hourly Data provided using the "Show Hourly Data" button.
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to US Units w/ kts" button until the relevant table displays °F.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Fahrenheit (eg, 21°F). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.**Recent NWS and model guidance points to a Sunday minimum temperature in Houston right around 78–80 °F, keeping the 76–79 °F bins at the top of the order book.** Clear to partly cloudy skies under a persistent subtropical ridge are allowing modest radiational cooling overnight, but elevated dew points in the low-to-mid 70s and the urban heat-island effect cap how far temperatures can fall. Forecast soundings show light southeast winds and minimal cloud cover after midnight, conditions that normally produce the season’s typical upper-70s lows rather than deeper cooling.
The tight clustering of probabilities around 76–79 °F reflects both the narrow expected range and the inherent uncertainty in the final hourly minimum: small shifts in boundary-layer moisture, wind speed, or the exact timing of the low can move the reading one bin either way. Historical climatology (1991–2020 average low of ~75 °F) and the lack of any incoming frontal system or tropical moisture reinforce the current market-implied odds, while the next model runs and updated NWS forecasts remain the key near-term catalysts that could sharpen or shift those probabilities.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded by NOAA at the William P. Hobby Airport Station in degrees Fahrenheit on 30 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=khou
This market will resolve off of the Hourly Data provided using the "Show Hourly Data" button.
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to US Units w/ kts" button until the relevant table displays °F.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Fahrenheit (eg, 21°F). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=khou
This market will resolve off of the Hourly Data provided using the "Show Hourly Data" button.
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to US Units w/ kts" button until the relevant table displays °F.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Fahrenheit (eg, 21°F). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
Market Opened: Aug 28, 2026, 10:30 AM ET
Volume
$31End Date
Aug 30, 2026Market Opened
Aug 28, 2026, 10:30 AM ETResolution Source
https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=khouResolver
0x69c47De9D...This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded by NOAA at the William P. Hobby Airport Station in degrees Fahrenheit on 30 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=khou
This market will resolve off of the Hourly Data provided using the "Show Hourly Data" button.
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to US Units w/ kts" button until the relevant table displays °F.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Fahrenheit (eg, 21°F). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.**Recent NWS and model guidance points to a Sunday minimum temperature in Houston right around 78–80 °F, keeping the 76–79 °F bins at the top of the order book.** Clear to partly cloudy skies under a persistent subtropical ridge are allowing modest radiational cooling overnight, but elevated dew points in the low-to-mid 70s and the urban heat-island effect cap how far temperatures can fall. Forecast soundings show light southeast winds and minimal cloud cover after midnight, conditions that normally produce the season’s typical upper-70s lows rather than deeper cooling.
The tight clustering of probabilities around 76–79 °F reflects both the narrow expected range and the inherent uncertainty in the final hourly minimum: small shifts in boundary-layer moisture, wind speed, or the exact timing of the low can move the reading one bin either way. Historical climatology (1991–2020 average low of ~75 °F) and the lack of any incoming frontal system or tropical moisture reinforce the current market-implied odds, while the next model runs and updated NWS forecasts remain the key near-term catalysts that could sharpen or shift those probabilities.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded by NOAA at the William P. Hobby Airport Station in degrees Fahrenheit on 30 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=khou
This market will resolve off of the Hourly Data provided using the "Show Hourly Data" button.
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to US Units w/ kts" button until the relevant table displays °F.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Fahrenheit (eg, 21°F). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=khou
This market will resolve off of the Hourly Data provided using the "Show Hourly Data" button.
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to US Units w/ kts" button until the relevant table displays °F.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Fahrenheit (eg, 21°F). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
Volume
$31End Date
Aug 30, 2026Market Opened
Aug 28, 2026, 10:30 AM ETResolution Source
https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=khouResolver
0x69c47De9D...**Recent NWS and model guidance points to a Sunday minimum temperature in Houston right around 78–80 °F, keeping the 76–79 °F bins at the top of the order book.** Clear to partly cloudy skies under a persistent subtropical ridge are allowing modest radiational cooling overnight, but elevated dew points in the low-to-mid 70s and the urban heat-island effect cap how far temperatures can fall. Forecast soundings show light southeast winds and minimal cloud cover after midnight, conditions that normally produce the season’s typical upper-70s lows rather than deeper cooling. The tight clustering of probabilities around 76–79 °F reflects both the narrow expected range and the inherent uncertainty in the final hourly minimum: small shifts in boundary-layer moisture, wind speed, or the exact timing of the low can move the reading one bin either way. Historical climatology (1991–2020 average low of ~75 °F) and the lack of any incoming frontal system or tropical moisture reinforce the current market-implied odds, while the next model runs and updated NWS forecasts remain the key near-term catalysts that could sharpen or shift those probabilities.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated
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