A strong, rapidly intensifying 2026 El Niño, with Niño 3.4 sea surface temperature anomalies already exceeding +2.5 °C and models projecting a potential super El Niño peak above +3 °C by late year, stands as the dominant driver behind closely matched market-implied odds near 48% each for September ranking first through third or fourth or lower. This event follows a warm baseline from prior years, with global temperatures already elevated by long-term anthropogenic warming, and El Niño’s lagged influence on atmospheric temperatures typically peaks several months after the oceanic maximum. Recent July 2026 data from Berkeley Earth showed the month as the second-warmest on record, reinforcing expectations that September could approach or exceed prior anomalies like those in 2023–2024. Key uncertainties include model spread in ENSO strength, dataset differences in global averaging, and potential short-term cooling from other modes such as the Madden-Julian Oscillation, all of which sustain the tight probability distribution ahead of September’s official release.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · UpdatedSeptember 2026 1st, 2nd, or 3rd hottest on record?
September 2026 1st, 2nd, or 3rd hottest on record?
1st hottest 48%
2nd hottest 48%
3rd hottest 48%
4th or lower 48%
NEW
NEW
Sep 30, 2026
1st hottest
48%
2nd hottest
48%
3rd hottest
48%
4th or lower
48%
1st hottest 48%
2nd hottest 48%
3rd hottest 48%
4th or lower 48%
NEW
NEW
Sep 30, 2026
1st hottest
$0 Vol.
48%
2nd hottest
$0 Vol.
48%
3rd hottest
$0 Vol.
48%
4th or lower
$0 Vol.
48%
This market will resolve based on the data for the Global Land-Ocean Temperature Index for September 2026 versus the data points available for all other Septembers on record.
Note: If September 2026 is tied for first, second, or third hottest with another year, it will qualify for the bracket it ties with.
The primary resolution source for this market will be the figures found in the table titled "GLOBAL Land-Ocean Temperature Index in 0.01 degrees Celsius" under the column for the relevant month (https://data.giss.nasa.gov/gistemp/tabledata_v4/GLB.Ts+dSST.txt). If NASA's "Global Temperature Index" is rendered permanently unavailable, other information from NASA may be used.
If no information for September 2026 is provided by NASA by the last day of the following month, 11:59:59 PM ET, a consensus of credible sources will be used to resolve this market.A strong, rapidly intensifying 2026 El Niño, with Niño 3.4 sea surface temperature anomalies already exceeding +2.5 °C and models projecting a potential super El Niño peak above +3 °C by late year, stands as the dominant driver behind closely matched market-implied odds near 48% each for September ranking first through third or fourth or lower. This event follows a warm baseline from prior years, with global temperatures already elevated by long-term anthropogenic warming, and El Niño’s lagged influence on atmospheric temperatures typically peaks several months after the oceanic maximum. Recent July 2026 data from Berkeley Earth showed the month as the second-warmest on record, reinforcing expectations that September could approach or exceed prior anomalies like those in 2023–2024. Key uncertainties include model spread in ENSO strength, dataset differences in global averaging, and potential short-term cooling from other modes such as the Madden-Julian Oscillation, all of which sustain the tight probability distribution ahead of September’s official release.
This market will resolve based on the data for the Global Land-Ocean Temperature Index for September 2026 versus the data points available for all other Septembers on record.
Note: If September 2026 is tied for first, second, or third hottest with another year, it will qualify for the bracket it ties with.
The primary resolution source for this market will be the figures found in the table titled "GLOBAL Land-Ocean Temperature Index in 0.01 degrees Celsius" under the column for the relevant month (https://data.giss.nasa.gov/gistemp/tabledata_v4/GLB.Ts+dSST.txt). If NASA's "Global Temperature Index" is rendered permanently unavailable, other information from NASA may be used.
If no information for September 2026 is provided by NASA by the last day of the following month, 11:59:59 PM ET, a consensus of credible sources will be used to resolve this market.
Note: If September 2026 is tied for first, second, or third hottest with another year, it will qualify for the bracket it ties with.
The primary resolution source for this market will be the figures found in the table titled "GLOBAL Land-Ocean Temperature Index in 0.01 degrees Celsius" under the column for the relevant month (https://data.giss.nasa.gov/gistemp/tabledata_v4/GLB.Ts+dSST.txt). If NASA's "Global Temperature Index" is rendered permanently unavailable, other information from NASA may be used.
If no information for September 2026 is provided by NASA by the last day of the following month, 11:59:59 PM ET, a consensus of credible sources will be used to resolve this market.
Market Opened: Aug 28, 2026, 11:14 AM ET
Volume
$0End Date
Oct 1, 2026Market Opened
Aug 28, 2026, 11:14 AM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...This market will resolve based on the data for the Global Land-Ocean Temperature Index for September 2026 versus the data points available for all other Septembers on record.
Note: If September 2026 is tied for first, second, or third hottest with another year, it will qualify for the bracket it ties with.
The primary resolution source for this market will be the figures found in the table titled "GLOBAL Land-Ocean Temperature Index in 0.01 degrees Celsius" under the column for the relevant month (https://data.giss.nasa.gov/gistemp/tabledata_v4/GLB.Ts+dSST.txt). If NASA's "Global Temperature Index" is rendered permanently unavailable, other information from NASA may be used.
If no information for September 2026 is provided by NASA by the last day of the following month, 11:59:59 PM ET, a consensus of credible sources will be used to resolve this market.A strong, rapidly intensifying 2026 El Niño, with Niño 3.4 sea surface temperature anomalies already exceeding +2.5 °C and models projecting a potential super El Niño peak above +3 °C by late year, stands as the dominant driver behind closely matched market-implied odds near 48% each for September ranking first through third or fourth or lower. This event follows a warm baseline from prior years, with global temperatures already elevated by long-term anthropogenic warming, and El Niño’s lagged influence on atmospheric temperatures typically peaks several months after the oceanic maximum. Recent July 2026 data from Berkeley Earth showed the month as the second-warmest on record, reinforcing expectations that September could approach or exceed prior anomalies like those in 2023–2024. Key uncertainties include model spread in ENSO strength, dataset differences in global averaging, and potential short-term cooling from other modes such as the Madden-Julian Oscillation, all of which sustain the tight probability distribution ahead of September’s official release.
This market will resolve based on the data for the Global Land-Ocean Temperature Index for September 2026 versus the data points available for all other Septembers on record.
Note: If September 2026 is tied for first, second, or third hottest with another year, it will qualify for the bracket it ties with.
The primary resolution source for this market will be the figures found in the table titled "GLOBAL Land-Ocean Temperature Index in 0.01 degrees Celsius" under the column for the relevant month (https://data.giss.nasa.gov/gistemp/tabledata_v4/GLB.Ts+dSST.txt). If NASA's "Global Temperature Index" is rendered permanently unavailable, other information from NASA may be used.
If no information for September 2026 is provided by NASA by the last day of the following month, 11:59:59 PM ET, a consensus of credible sources will be used to resolve this market.
Note: If September 2026 is tied for first, second, or third hottest with another year, it will qualify for the bracket it ties with.
The primary resolution source for this market will be the figures found in the table titled "GLOBAL Land-Ocean Temperature Index in 0.01 degrees Celsius" under the column for the relevant month (https://data.giss.nasa.gov/gistemp/tabledata_v4/GLB.Ts+dSST.txt). If NASA's "Global Temperature Index" is rendered permanently unavailable, other information from NASA may be used.
If no information for September 2026 is provided by NASA by the last day of the following month, 11:59:59 PM ET, a consensus of credible sources will be used to resolve this market.
Volume
$0End Date
Oct 1, 2026Market Opened
Aug 28, 2026, 11:14 AM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...A strong, rapidly intensifying 2026 El Niño, with Niño 3.4 sea surface temperature anomalies already exceeding +2.5 °C and models projecting a potential super El Niño peak above +3 °C by late year, stands as the dominant driver behind closely matched market-implied odds near 48% each for September ranking first through third or fourth or lower. This event follows a warm baseline from prior years, with global temperatures already elevated by long-term anthropogenic warming, and El Niño’s lagged influence on atmospheric temperatures typically peaks several months after the oceanic maximum. Recent July 2026 data from Berkeley Earth showed the month as the second-warmest on record, reinforcing expectations that September could approach or exceed prior anomalies like those in 2023–2024. Key uncertainties include model spread in ENSO strength, dataset differences in global averaging, and potential short-term cooling from other modes such as the Madden-Julian Oscillation, all of which sustain the tight probability distribution ahead of September’s official release.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated
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