Ongoing NASA and ESA monitoring, including Sentry risk assessments and CNEOS fireball data, has identified no near-Earth objects on collision courses through the end of 2026 capable of delivering a 5-kiloton TNT-equivalent airburst or ground impact. This underpins the 71% market-implied probability for "No," consistent with historical NEO flux rates showing meter-scale impactors reaching that yield occur only sporadically every few years. Recent 2026 close approaches, such as 2026 JH2 and smaller objects like 2026 PK, have all been confirmed as safe misses at distances from tens of thousands to millions of miles, with no model revisions or new detections altering the low-risk outlook. Continuous sky surveys further reduce the chance of undetected threats before year-end.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated5kt meteor strike in 2026?
5kt meteor strike in 2026?
29% chance
$312,478 Vol.
$312,478 Vol.
Dec 30, 2026
29% chance
$312,478 Vol.
$312,478 Vol.
Dec 30, 2026
This market will resolve to "Yes" if a natural meteoroid (bolide) explodes in Earth's atmosphere with a total impact energy greater than or equal to 5 kilotons of TNT equivalent between January 1 and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
The object must be classified as a natural meteoroid; events involving artificial objects or reentry vehicles do not qualify.
The primary resolution source will be the NASA JPL Fireball and Bolide Data repository: https://cneos.jpl.nasa.gov/fireballs/. The relevant field for determining impact energy is the “Impact Energy (kt)” column. If this dataset has not been updated to include all relevant dates by February 28, 2027, or if the NASA JPL Fireball and Bolide Data repository becomes permanently unavailable, this market may resolve based on a consensus of credible sources including the European Space Agency (ESA), the International Asteroid Warning Network (IAWN), the U.S. Department of Defense, or credible reporting of a scientific consensus, such as a NASA press release.Ongoing NASA and ESA monitoring, including Sentry risk assessments and CNEOS fireball data, has identified no near-Earth objects on collision courses through the end of 2026 capable of delivering a 5-kiloton TNT-equivalent airburst or ground impact. This underpins the 71% market-implied probability for "No," consistent with historical NEO flux rates showing meter-scale impactors reaching that yield occur only sporadically every few years. Recent 2026 close approaches, such as 2026 JH2 and smaller objects like 2026 PK, have all been confirmed as safe misses at distances from tens of thousands to millions of miles, with no model revisions or new detections altering the low-risk outlook. Continuous sky surveys further reduce the chance of undetected threats before year-end.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if a natural meteoroid (bolide) explodes in Earth's atmosphere with a total impact energy greater than or equal to 5 kilotons of TNT equivalent between January 1 and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
The object must be classified as a natural meteoroid; events involving artificial objects or reentry vehicles do not qualify.
The primary resolution source will be the NASA JPL Fireball and Bolide Data repository: https://cneos.jpl.nasa.gov/fireballs/. The relevant field for determining impact energy is the “Impact Energy (kt)” column. If this dataset has not been updated to include all relevant dates by February 28, 2027, or if the NASA JPL Fireball and Bolide Data repository becomes permanently unavailable, this market may resolve based on a consensus of credible sources including the European Space Agency (ESA), the International Asteroid Warning Network (IAWN), the U.S. Department of Defense, or credible reporting of a scientific consensus, such as a NASA press release.
The object must be classified as a natural meteoroid; events involving artificial objects or reentry vehicles do not qualify.
The primary resolution source will be the NASA JPL Fireball and Bolide Data repository: https://cneos.jpl.nasa.gov/fireballs/. The relevant field for determining impact energy is the “Impact Energy (kt)” column. If this dataset has not been updated to include all relevant dates by February 28, 2027, or if the NASA JPL Fireball and Bolide Data repository becomes permanently unavailable, this market may resolve based on a consensus of credible sources including the European Space Agency (ESA), the International Asteroid Warning Network (IAWN), the U.S. Department of Defense, or credible reporting of a scientific consensus, such as a NASA press release.
Market Opened: Dec 31, 2025, 12:04 PM ET
Volume
$312,478End Date
Dec 31, 2026Market Opened
Dec 31, 2025, 12:04 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...This market will resolve to "Yes" if a natural meteoroid (bolide) explodes in Earth's atmosphere with a total impact energy greater than or equal to 5 kilotons of TNT equivalent between January 1 and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
The object must be classified as a natural meteoroid; events involving artificial objects or reentry vehicles do not qualify.
The primary resolution source will be the NASA JPL Fireball and Bolide Data repository: https://cneos.jpl.nasa.gov/fireballs/. The relevant field for determining impact energy is the “Impact Energy (kt)” column. If this dataset has not been updated to include all relevant dates by February 28, 2027, or if the NASA JPL Fireball and Bolide Data repository becomes permanently unavailable, this market may resolve based on a consensus of credible sources including the European Space Agency (ESA), the International Asteroid Warning Network (IAWN), the U.S. Department of Defense, or credible reporting of a scientific consensus, such as a NASA press release.Ongoing NASA and ESA monitoring, including Sentry risk assessments and CNEOS fireball data, has identified no near-Earth objects on collision courses through the end of 2026 capable of delivering a 5-kiloton TNT-equivalent airburst or ground impact. This underpins the 71% market-implied probability for "No," consistent with historical NEO flux rates showing meter-scale impactors reaching that yield occur only sporadically every few years. Recent 2026 close approaches, such as 2026 JH2 and smaller objects like 2026 PK, have all been confirmed as safe misses at distances from tens of thousands to millions of miles, with no model revisions or new detections altering the low-risk outlook. Continuous sky surveys further reduce the chance of undetected threats before year-end.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if a natural meteoroid (bolide) explodes in Earth's atmosphere with a total impact energy greater than or equal to 5 kilotons of TNT equivalent between January 1 and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
The object must be classified as a natural meteoroid; events involving artificial objects or reentry vehicles do not qualify.
The primary resolution source will be the NASA JPL Fireball and Bolide Data repository: https://cneos.jpl.nasa.gov/fireballs/. The relevant field for determining impact energy is the “Impact Energy (kt)” column. If this dataset has not been updated to include all relevant dates by February 28, 2027, or if the NASA JPL Fireball and Bolide Data repository becomes permanently unavailable, this market may resolve based on a consensus of credible sources including the European Space Agency (ESA), the International Asteroid Warning Network (IAWN), the U.S. Department of Defense, or credible reporting of a scientific consensus, such as a NASA press release.
The object must be classified as a natural meteoroid; events involving artificial objects or reentry vehicles do not qualify.
The primary resolution source will be the NASA JPL Fireball and Bolide Data repository: https://cneos.jpl.nasa.gov/fireballs/. The relevant field for determining impact energy is the “Impact Energy (kt)” column. If this dataset has not been updated to include all relevant dates by February 28, 2027, or if the NASA JPL Fireball and Bolide Data repository becomes permanently unavailable, this market may resolve based on a consensus of credible sources including the European Space Agency (ESA), the International Asteroid Warning Network (IAWN), the U.S. Department of Defense, or credible reporting of a scientific consensus, such as a NASA press release.
Volume
$312,478End Date
Dec 31, 2026Market Opened
Dec 31, 2025, 12:04 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...Ongoing NASA and ESA monitoring, including Sentry risk assessments and CNEOS fireball data, has identified no near-Earth objects on collision courses through the end of 2026 capable of delivering a 5-kiloton TNT-equivalent airburst or ground impact. This underpins the 71% market-implied probability for "No," consistent with historical NEO flux rates showing meter-scale impactors reaching that yield occur only sporadically every few years. Recent 2026 close approaches, such as 2026 JH2 and smaller objects like 2026 PK, have all been confirmed as safe misses at distances from tens of thousands to millions of miles, with no model revisions or new detections altering the low-risk outlook. Continuous sky surveys further reduce the chance of undetected threats before year-end.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated
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