No at 75% reflects the absence through late August of any qualifying events under the market’s strict criteria—an 8.5+ earthquake, Category 5 U.S. hurricane landfall, VEI-6+ volcanic eruption, or 10-kiloton+ meteor strike—despite numerous lesser disasters. USGS records show multiple magnitude 7.0–7.7 quakes, including recent events in Indonesia and Colombia, but none reaching the 8.5 threshold whose global frequency averages roughly one every several years. The Atlantic hurricane season has remained subdued under an ongoing El Niño pattern that limits intensification, with systems like Lala and Moke falling short of Category 5 status or U.S. landfall. No qualifying volcanic or extraterrestrial events have been reported by Smithsonian or NASA monitoring. These factors sustain trader consensus favoring No for the remainder of 2026, though late-season model runs and seismic monitoring could still shift odds.