Recent National Weather Service and ensemble model guidance points to an overnight low in the low 70s°F for Chicago on August 30, driven by a warm, humid southerly flow ahead of a stronger ridge and lingering cloud cover that limits nocturnal radiative cooling. The closely matched market probabilities for 70–73°F reflect modest spread across deterministic and ensemble runs regarding exact wind speeds and boundary-layer moisture, which can alter minimum temperatures by a couple of degrees. Historical late-August averages near 64°F provide context, but the current pattern favors well-above-normal values with low risk of cooler outcomes below 68°F. Updated model runs and the next NWS forecast discussion will likely tighten this range ahead of the overnight period.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · UpdatedLowest temperature in Chicago on August 30?
Lowest temperature in Chicago on August 30?
72-73°F 41%
82°F or higher 32%
70-71°F 31%
66-67°F 26%
NEW
NEW
Aug 30, 2026
63°F or below
5%
64-65°F
5%
66-67°F
26%
68-69°F
23%
70-71°F
31%
72-73°F
41%
74-75°F
22%
76-77°F
24%
78-79°F
8%
80-81°F
7%
82°F or higher
32%
72-73°F 41%
82°F or higher 32%
70-71°F 31%
66-67°F 26%
NEW
NEW
Aug 30, 2026
63°F or below
$66 Vol.
5%
64-65°F
$6 Vol.
5%
66-67°F
$0 Vol.
26%
68-69°F
$0 Vol.
23%
70-71°F
$0 Vol.
31%
72-73°F
$18 Vol.
41%
74-75°F
$0 Vol.
22%
76-77°F
$0 Vol.
24%
78-79°F
$10 Vol.
8%
80-81°F
$10 Vol.
7%
82°F or higher
$10 Vol.
32%
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Chicago O'Hare Intl Airport Station in degrees Fahrenheit on 30 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=kord
This market will resolve off of the Hourly Data provided using the "Show Hourly Data" button.
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to US Units w/ kts" button until the relevant table displays °F.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Fahrenheit (eg, 21°F). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.Recent National Weather Service and ensemble model guidance points to an overnight low in the low 70s°F for Chicago on August 30, driven by a warm, humid southerly flow ahead of a stronger ridge and lingering cloud cover that limits nocturnal radiative cooling. The closely matched market probabilities for 70–73°F reflect modest spread across deterministic and ensemble runs regarding exact wind speeds and boundary-layer moisture, which can alter minimum temperatures by a couple of degrees. Historical late-August averages near 64°F provide context, but the current pattern favors well-above-normal values with low risk of cooler outcomes below 68°F. Updated model runs and the next NWS forecast discussion will likely tighten this range ahead of the overnight period.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Chicago O'Hare Intl Airport Station in degrees Fahrenheit on 30 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=kord
This market will resolve off of the Hourly Data provided using the "Show Hourly Data" button.
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to US Units w/ kts" button until the relevant table displays °F.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Fahrenheit (eg, 21°F). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=kord
This market will resolve off of the Hourly Data provided using the "Show Hourly Data" button.
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to US Units w/ kts" button until the relevant table displays °F.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Fahrenheit (eg, 21°F). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
Market Opened: Aug 28, 2026, 10:29 AM ET
Volume
$119End Date
Aug 30, 2026Market Opened
Aug 28, 2026, 10:29 AM ETResolution Source
https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=kordResolver
0x69c47De9D...This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Chicago O'Hare Intl Airport Station in degrees Fahrenheit on 30 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=kord
This market will resolve off of the Hourly Data provided using the "Show Hourly Data" button.
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to US Units w/ kts" button until the relevant table displays °F.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Fahrenheit (eg, 21°F). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.Recent National Weather Service and ensemble model guidance points to an overnight low in the low 70s°F for Chicago on August 30, driven by a warm, humid southerly flow ahead of a stronger ridge and lingering cloud cover that limits nocturnal radiative cooling. The closely matched market probabilities for 70–73°F reflect modest spread across deterministic and ensemble runs regarding exact wind speeds and boundary-layer moisture, which can alter minimum temperatures by a couple of degrees. Historical late-August averages near 64°F provide context, but the current pattern favors well-above-normal values with low risk of cooler outcomes below 68°F. Updated model runs and the next NWS forecast discussion will likely tighten this range ahead of the overnight period.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Chicago O'Hare Intl Airport Station in degrees Fahrenheit on 30 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=kord
This market will resolve off of the Hourly Data provided using the "Show Hourly Data" button.
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to US Units w/ kts" button until the relevant table displays °F.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Fahrenheit (eg, 21°F). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=kord
This market will resolve off of the Hourly Data provided using the "Show Hourly Data" button.
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to US Units w/ kts" button until the relevant table displays °F.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Fahrenheit (eg, 21°F). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
Volume
$119End Date
Aug 30, 2026Market Opened
Aug 28, 2026, 10:29 AM ETResolution Source
https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=kordResolver
0x69c47De9D...Recent National Weather Service and ensemble model guidance points to an overnight low in the low 70s°F for Chicago on August 30, driven by a warm, humid southerly flow ahead of a stronger ridge and lingering cloud cover that limits nocturnal radiative cooling. The closely matched market probabilities for 70–73°F reflect modest spread across deterministic and ensemble runs regarding exact wind speeds and boundary-layer moisture, which can alter minimum temperatures by a couple of degrees. Historical late-August averages near 64°F provide context, but the current pattern favors well-above-normal values with low risk of cooler outcomes below 68°F. Updated model runs and the next NWS forecast discussion will likely tighten this range ahead of the overnight period.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated
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