Recent forecasts from multiple meteorological services indicate Sao Paulo will experience a brief warm spell peaking around 31–34°C on August 31 before a cold front arrives late in the day or overnight, driving temperatures sharply lower by September 1. This transition, supported by consistent model runs showing northerly flow giving way to cooler southerly winds and increasing cloud cover or light precipitation, explains the market's elevated implied probability (36%) for a daily maximum of 29°C or below. Historical August climatology in the region averages highs near 22°C, but the current anomalous warm advection has kept recent maxima 8–12°C above normal, creating uncertainty around the precise timing of frontal passage that traders are pricing through conservative positioning on lower outcomes. Updated guidance from agencies monitoring the Southern Hemisphere mid-latitude systems will refine these probabilities ahead of resolution.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · UpdatedHighest temperature in Sao Paulo on August 31?
Highest temperature in Sao Paulo on August 31?
29°C or below 39%
30°C 17%
31°C 14%
32°C 12%
NEW
NEW
Aug 31, 2026
29°C or below
39%
30°C
17%
31°C
14%
32°C
12%
33°C
9%
34°C
5%
35°C
4%
36°C
<1%
37°C
1%
38°C
<1%
39°C or higher
<1%
29°C or below 39%
30°C 17%
31°C 14%
32°C 12%
NEW
NEW
Aug 31, 2026
29°C or below
$1,193 Vol.
39%
30°C
$197 Vol.
17%
31°C
$137 Vol.
14%
32°C
$90 Vol.
12%
33°C
$381 Vol.
9%
34°C
$119 Vol.
5%
35°C
$42 Vol.
4%
36°C
$20 Vol.
<1%
37°C
$10 Vol.
1%
38°C
$10 Vol.
<1%
39°C or higher
$10 Vol.
<1%
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Sao Paulo-Guarulhos International Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 31 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=sbgr
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.Recent forecasts from multiple meteorological services indicate Sao Paulo will experience a brief warm spell peaking around 31–34°C on August 31 before a cold front arrives late in the day or overnight, driving temperatures sharply lower by September 1. This transition, supported by consistent model runs showing northerly flow giving way to cooler southerly winds and increasing cloud cover or light precipitation, explains the market's elevated implied probability (36%) for a daily maximum of 29°C or below. Historical August climatology in the region averages highs near 22°C, but the current anomalous warm advection has kept recent maxima 8–12°C above normal, creating uncertainty around the precise timing of frontal passage that traders are pricing through conservative positioning on lower outcomes. Updated guidance from agencies monitoring the Southern Hemisphere mid-latitude systems will refine these probabilities ahead of resolution.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Sao Paulo-Guarulhos International Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 31 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=sbgr
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=sbgr
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
Market Opened: Aug 29, 2026, 8:55 AM ET
Volume
$2,209End Date
Aug 31, 2026Market Opened
Aug 29, 2026, 8:55 AM ETResolution Source
https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=sbgrResolver
0x69c47De9D...This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Sao Paulo-Guarulhos International Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 31 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=sbgr
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.Recent forecasts from multiple meteorological services indicate Sao Paulo will experience a brief warm spell peaking around 31–34°C on August 31 before a cold front arrives late in the day or overnight, driving temperatures sharply lower by September 1. This transition, supported by consistent model runs showing northerly flow giving way to cooler southerly winds and increasing cloud cover or light precipitation, explains the market's elevated implied probability (36%) for a daily maximum of 29°C or below. Historical August climatology in the region averages highs near 22°C, but the current anomalous warm advection has kept recent maxima 8–12°C above normal, creating uncertainty around the precise timing of frontal passage that traders are pricing through conservative positioning on lower outcomes. Updated guidance from agencies monitoring the Southern Hemisphere mid-latitude systems will refine these probabilities ahead of resolution.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Sao Paulo-Guarulhos International Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 31 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=sbgr
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=sbgr
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
Volume
$2,209End Date
Aug 31, 2026Market Opened
Aug 29, 2026, 8:55 AM ETResolution Source
https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=sbgrResolver
0x69c47De9D...Recent forecasts from multiple meteorological services indicate Sao Paulo will experience a brief warm spell peaking around 31–34°C on August 31 before a cold front arrives late in the day or overnight, driving temperatures sharply lower by September 1. This transition, supported by consistent model runs showing northerly flow giving way to cooler southerly winds and increasing cloud cover or light precipitation, explains the market's elevated implied probability (36%) for a daily maximum of 29°C or below. Historical August climatology in the region averages highs near 22°C, but the current anomalous warm advection has kept recent maxima 8–12°C above normal, creating uncertainty around the precise timing of frontal passage that traders are pricing through conservative positioning on lower outcomes. Updated guidance from agencies monitoring the Southern Hemisphere mid-latitude systems will refine these probabilities ahead of resolution.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated
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