**Northwesterly winds and mostly clear skies are positioning Wellington for a daytime maximum near 16–17 °C on 30 August 2026, consistent with the market’s heaviest weighting on 17 °C (53.5 %).** Official guidance from MetService and cross-checked international models shows a stable northwesterly regime advecting milder air over the North Island, with only low shower risk and strong afternoon mixing. Recent observations from late August have produced daily highs of 14–17 °C under similar flow, providing a climatological baseline that supports the current implied distribution (16 °C at 20.5 %, 18 °C at 22 %). Ensemble spread remains modest for a 24-hour horizon, but small uncertainties in boundary-layer mixing and local topographic effects around Wellington Harbour keep the 16–18 °C band dominant. No significant frontal systems or southerly changes are expected before the end of the 30th, limiting downside risk below 15 °C while capping upside potential above 19 °C. Traders are therefore pricing the outcome around the forecast consensus rather than extremes.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · UpdatedHighest temperature in Wellington on August 30?
Highest temperature in Wellington on August 30?
17°C 54%
18°C 22%
16°C 21%
19°C 3%
NEW
$13,653 Vol.
NEW
$13,653 Vol.
Aug 30, 2026
11°C or below
<1%
12°C
<1%
13°C
<1%
14°C
1%
15°C
2%
16°C
21%
17°C
54%
18°C
22%
19°C
3%
20°C
<1%
21°C or higher
<1%
17°C 54%
18°C 22%
16°C 21%
19°C 3%
NEW
$13,653 Vol.
NEW
$13,653 Vol.
Aug 30, 2026
11°C or below
$488 Vol.
<1%
12°C
$378 Vol.
<1%
13°C
$381 Vol.
<1%
14°C
$788 Vol.
1%
15°C
$898 Vol.
2%
16°C
$4,969 Vol.
21%
17°C
$2,317 Vol.
54%
18°C
$1,903 Vol.
22%
19°C
$567 Vol.
3%
20°C
$484 Vol.
<1%
21°C or higher
$479 Vol.
<1%
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Wellington Intl Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 30 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=nzwn
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.**Northwesterly winds and mostly clear skies are positioning Wellington for a daytime maximum near 16–17 °C on 30 August 2026, consistent with the market’s heaviest weighting on 17 °C (53.5 %).**
Official guidance from MetService and cross-checked international models shows a stable northwesterly regime advecting milder air over the North Island, with only low shower risk and strong afternoon mixing. Recent observations from late August have produced daily highs of 14–17 °C under similar flow, providing a climatological baseline that supports the current implied distribution (16 °C at 20.5 %, 18 °C at 22 %).
Ensemble spread remains modest for a 24-hour horizon, but small uncertainties in boundary-layer mixing and local topographic effects around Wellington Harbour keep the 16–18 °C band dominant. No significant frontal systems or southerly changes are expected before the end of the 30th, limiting downside risk below 15 °C while capping upside potential above 19 °C. Traders are therefore pricing the outcome around the forecast consensus rather than extremes.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Wellington Intl Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 30 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=nzwn
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=nzwn
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
Market Opened: Aug 28, 2026, 12:56 AM ET
Volume
$13,653End Date
Aug 30, 2026Market Opened
Aug 28, 2026, 12:56 AM ETResolution Source
https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=nzwnResolver
0x69c47De9D...This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Wellington Intl Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 30 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=nzwn
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.**Northwesterly winds and mostly clear skies are positioning Wellington for a daytime maximum near 16–17 °C on 30 August 2026, consistent with the market’s heaviest weighting on 17 °C (53.5 %).**
Official guidance from MetService and cross-checked international models shows a stable northwesterly regime advecting milder air over the North Island, with only low shower risk and strong afternoon mixing. Recent observations from late August have produced daily highs of 14–17 °C under similar flow, providing a climatological baseline that supports the current implied distribution (16 °C at 20.5 %, 18 °C at 22 %).
Ensemble spread remains modest for a 24-hour horizon, but small uncertainties in boundary-layer mixing and local topographic effects around Wellington Harbour keep the 16–18 °C band dominant. No significant frontal systems or southerly changes are expected before the end of the 30th, limiting downside risk below 15 °C while capping upside potential above 19 °C. Traders are therefore pricing the outcome around the forecast consensus rather than extremes.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Wellington Intl Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 30 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=nzwn
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=nzwn
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
Volume
$13,653End Date
Aug 30, 2026Market Opened
Aug 28, 2026, 12:56 AM ETResolution Source
https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=nzwnResolver
0x69c47De9D...**Northwesterly winds and mostly clear skies are positioning Wellington for a daytime maximum near 16–17 °C on 30 August 2026, consistent with the market’s heaviest weighting on 17 °C (53.5 %).** Official guidance from MetService and cross-checked international models shows a stable northwesterly regime advecting milder air over the North Island, with only low shower risk and strong afternoon mixing. Recent observations from late August have produced daily highs of 14–17 °C under similar flow, providing a climatological baseline that supports the current implied distribution (16 °C at 20.5 %, 18 °C at 22 %). Ensemble spread remains modest for a 24-hour horizon, but small uncertainties in boundary-layer mixing and local topographic effects around Wellington Harbour keep the 16–18 °C band dominant. No significant frontal systems or southerly changes are expected before the end of the 30th, limiting downside risk below 15 °C while capping upside potential above 19 °C. Traders are therefore pricing the outcome around the forecast consensus rather than extremes.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated
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