Recent model consensus from agencies like INMET and international forecasts points to a minimum near 19°C for São Paulo on August 30, driven by persistent warm advection ahead of an approaching cold front expected to intensify after the date. Light winds, partly cloudy skies, and typical urban heat retention limit radiative cooling overnight, keeping the low from dropping further despite seasonal August averages around 13°C. The tight clustering between 18°C and 19°C outcomes reflects minor uncertainties in exact dew point depression and boundary-layer mixing, while lower probabilities for 17°C or below align with the front's delayed arrival and absence of strong polar air intrusions in current runs. Updated model outputs and official observations through the night will likely resolve the narrow spread.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · UpdatedLowest temperature in Sao Paulo on August 30?
Lowest temperature in Sao Paulo on August 30?
27°C or higher 51%
26°C 50%
25°C 47%
19°C 45%
NEW
NEW
Aug 30, 2026
17°C or below
35%
18°C
44%
19°C
45%
20°C
35%
21°C
31%
22°C
8%
23°C
13%
24°C
40%
25°C
47%
26°C
50%
27°C or higher
51%
27°C or higher 51%
26°C 50%
25°C 47%
19°C 45%
NEW
NEW
Aug 30, 2026
17°C or below
$0 Vol.
35%
18°C
$0 Vol.
44%
19°C
$0 Vol.
45%
20°C
$0 Vol.
35%
21°C
$0 Vol.
31%
22°C
$15 Vol.
8%
23°C
$169 Vol.
13%
24°C
$129 Vol.
40%
25°C
$10 Vol.
47%
26°C
$15 Vol.
50%
27°C or higher
$145 Vol.
51%
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Sao Paulo-Guarulhos International Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 30 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=sbgr
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.Recent model consensus from agencies like INMET and international forecasts points to a minimum near 19°C for São Paulo on August 30, driven by persistent warm advection ahead of an approaching cold front expected to intensify after the date. Light winds, partly cloudy skies, and typical urban heat retention limit radiative cooling overnight, keeping the low from dropping further despite seasonal August averages around 13°C. The tight clustering between 18°C and 19°C outcomes reflects minor uncertainties in exact dew point depression and boundary-layer mixing, while lower probabilities for 17°C or below align with the front's delayed arrival and absence of strong polar air intrusions in current runs. Updated model outputs and official observations through the night will likely resolve the narrow spread.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Sao Paulo-Guarulhos International Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 30 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=sbgr
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=sbgr
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
Market Opened: Aug 28, 2026, 2:29 PM ET
Volume
$483End Date
Aug 30, 2026Market Opened
Aug 28, 2026, 2:29 PM ETResolution Source
https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=sbgrResolver
0x69c47De9D...This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Sao Paulo-Guarulhos International Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 30 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=sbgr
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.Recent model consensus from agencies like INMET and international forecasts points to a minimum near 19°C for São Paulo on August 30, driven by persistent warm advection ahead of an approaching cold front expected to intensify after the date. Light winds, partly cloudy skies, and typical urban heat retention limit radiative cooling overnight, keeping the low from dropping further despite seasonal August averages around 13°C. The tight clustering between 18°C and 19°C outcomes reflects minor uncertainties in exact dew point depression and boundary-layer mixing, while lower probabilities for 17°C or below align with the front's delayed arrival and absence of strong polar air intrusions in current runs. Updated model outputs and official observations through the night will likely resolve the narrow spread.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Sao Paulo-Guarulhos International Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 30 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=sbgr
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=sbgr
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
Volume
$483End Date
Aug 30, 2026Market Opened
Aug 28, 2026, 2:29 PM ETResolution Source
https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=sbgrResolver
0x69c47De9D...Recent model consensus from agencies like INMET and international forecasts points to a minimum near 19°C for São Paulo on August 30, driven by persistent warm advection ahead of an approaching cold front expected to intensify after the date. Light winds, partly cloudy skies, and typical urban heat retention limit radiative cooling overnight, keeping the low from dropping further despite seasonal August averages around 13°C. The tight clustering between 18°C and 19°C outcomes reflects minor uncertainties in exact dew point depression and boundary-layer mixing, while lower probabilities for 17°C or below align with the front's delayed arrival and absence of strong polar air intrusions in current runs. Updated model outputs and official observations through the night will likely resolve the narrow spread.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated
Beware of external links.
Beware of external links.
Frequently Asked Questions