**Global rates of magnitude 6.5+ earthquakes average roughly 1–3 per week**, derived from USGS long-term catalogs showing ~134 events in the 6.0–6.9 range annually, with the 6.5+ subset following a Gutenberg-Richter distribution. The market’s heavy weighting toward 0 (46%) or 1 (35.5%) reflects this baseline Poisson rate for a narrow seven-day window, where natural week-to-week variability often produces zero or one such event. August 2026 has featured typical activity, including several M6.0+ quakes (e.g., M6.0 in Somalia on 27 August and M6.2 in the Scotia Sea on 22 August) but no global swarm or aftershock sequence elevating short-term odds. Absent any major foreshock sequences or unusual seismic indices, traders assign low probability to three or more events, consistent with historical precedent and the absence of near-term triggers.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · UpdatedHow many 6.5 or above earthquakes worldwide August 31 - September 6?
How many 6.5 or above earthquakes worldwide August 31 - September 6?
0 46%
1 36%
2 20%
3 8%
NEW
NEW
Sep 7, 2026
0
46%
1
36%
2
20%
3
8%
4
4%
5
4%
more than 5
4%
0 46%
1 36%
2 20%
3 8%
NEW
NEW
Sep 7, 2026
0
$223 Vol.
46%
1
$106 Vol.
36%
2
$17 Vol.
20%
3
$17 Vol.
8%
4
$17 Vol.
4%
5
$17 Vol.
4%
more than 5
$17 Vol.
4%
This market will resolve according to the total number of earthquakes with a magnitude of 6.5 or higher that occur anywhere on Earth between August 31, 2026, 12:00 AM ET and September 6, 2026, 11:59 PM ET.
The resolution source for this market is the United States Geological Survey (USGS) Earthquake Hazards Program, with the minimum magnitude set to 6.5 and the date parameters set to the relevant dates for this market's timeframe (https://earthquake.usgs.gov/earthquakes/search/).
If an earthquake of substantial size has occurred within this market's timeframe but not yet appeared on the resolution source, this market may remain open until 48 hours after the market's closing time, or until the earthquake in question otherwise appears on the resolution source. If such an earthquake has not appeared on the resolution source by that time, another credible resolution source will be used.
This market may not resolve until the timeframe of this market has concluded. If a qualifying earthquake has been recorded on the final day, this market may remain open for 24 hours to allow for revisions to the recorded magnitude. After 24 hours, this market will resolve according to the latest provided data.**Global rates of magnitude 6.5+ earthquakes average roughly 1–3 per week**, derived from USGS long-term catalogs showing ~134 events in the 6.0–6.9 range annually, with the 6.5+ subset following a Gutenberg-Richter distribution. The market’s heavy weighting toward 0 (46%) or 1 (35.5%) reflects this baseline Poisson rate for a narrow seven-day window, where natural week-to-week variability often produces zero or one such event. August 2026 has featured typical activity, including several M6.0+ quakes (e.g., M6.0 in Somalia on 27 August and M6.2 in the Scotia Sea on 22 August) but no global swarm or aftershock sequence elevating short-term odds. Absent any major foreshock sequences or unusual seismic indices, traders assign low probability to three or more events, consistent with historical precedent and the absence of near-term triggers.
This market will resolve according to the total number of earthquakes with a magnitude of 6.5 or higher that occur anywhere on Earth between August 31, 2026, 12:00 AM ET and September 6, 2026, 11:59 PM ET.
The resolution source for this market is the United States Geological Survey (USGS) Earthquake Hazards Program, with the minimum magnitude set to 6.5 and the date parameters set to the relevant dates for this market's timeframe (https://earthquake.usgs.gov/earthquakes/search/).
If an earthquake of substantial size has occurred within this market's timeframe but not yet appeared on the resolution source, this market may remain open until 48 hours after the market's closing time, or until the earthquake in question otherwise appears on the resolution source. If such an earthquake has not appeared on the resolution source by that time, another credible resolution source will be used.
This market may not resolve until the timeframe of this market has concluded. If a qualifying earthquake has been recorded on the final day, this market may remain open for 24 hours to allow for revisions to the recorded magnitude. After 24 hours, this market will resolve according to the latest provided data.
The resolution source for this market is the United States Geological Survey (USGS) Earthquake Hazards Program, with the minimum magnitude set to 6.5 and the date parameters set to the relevant dates for this market's timeframe (https://earthquake.usgs.gov/earthquakes/search/).
If an earthquake of substantial size has occurred within this market's timeframe but not yet appeared on the resolution source, this market may remain open until 48 hours after the market's closing time, or until the earthquake in question otherwise appears on the resolution source. If such an earthquake has not appeared on the resolution source by that time, another credible resolution source will be used.
This market may not resolve until the timeframe of this market has concluded. If a qualifying earthquake has been recorded on the final day, this market may remain open for 24 hours to allow for revisions to the recorded magnitude. After 24 hours, this market will resolve according to the latest provided data.
Market Opened: Aug 28, 2026, 11:01 AM ET
Volume
$413End Date
Sep 7, 2026Market Opened
Aug 28, 2026, 11:01 AM ETResolution Source
https://earthquake.usgs.gov/earthquakes/search/Resolver
0x69c47De9D...This market will resolve according to the total number of earthquakes with a magnitude of 6.5 or higher that occur anywhere on Earth between August 31, 2026, 12:00 AM ET and September 6, 2026, 11:59 PM ET.
The resolution source for this market is the United States Geological Survey (USGS) Earthquake Hazards Program, with the minimum magnitude set to 6.5 and the date parameters set to the relevant dates for this market's timeframe (https://earthquake.usgs.gov/earthquakes/search/).
If an earthquake of substantial size has occurred within this market's timeframe but not yet appeared on the resolution source, this market may remain open until 48 hours after the market's closing time, or until the earthquake in question otherwise appears on the resolution source. If such an earthquake has not appeared on the resolution source by that time, another credible resolution source will be used.
This market may not resolve until the timeframe of this market has concluded. If a qualifying earthquake has been recorded on the final day, this market may remain open for 24 hours to allow for revisions to the recorded magnitude. After 24 hours, this market will resolve according to the latest provided data.**Global rates of magnitude 6.5+ earthquakes average roughly 1–3 per week**, derived from USGS long-term catalogs showing ~134 events in the 6.0–6.9 range annually, with the 6.5+ subset following a Gutenberg-Richter distribution. The market’s heavy weighting toward 0 (46%) or 1 (35.5%) reflects this baseline Poisson rate for a narrow seven-day window, where natural week-to-week variability often produces zero or one such event. August 2026 has featured typical activity, including several M6.0+ quakes (e.g., M6.0 in Somalia on 27 August and M6.2 in the Scotia Sea on 22 August) but no global swarm or aftershock sequence elevating short-term odds. Absent any major foreshock sequences or unusual seismic indices, traders assign low probability to three or more events, consistent with historical precedent and the absence of near-term triggers.
This market will resolve according to the total number of earthquakes with a magnitude of 6.5 or higher that occur anywhere on Earth between August 31, 2026, 12:00 AM ET and September 6, 2026, 11:59 PM ET.
The resolution source for this market is the United States Geological Survey (USGS) Earthquake Hazards Program, with the minimum magnitude set to 6.5 and the date parameters set to the relevant dates for this market's timeframe (https://earthquake.usgs.gov/earthquakes/search/).
If an earthquake of substantial size has occurred within this market's timeframe but not yet appeared on the resolution source, this market may remain open until 48 hours after the market's closing time, or until the earthquake in question otherwise appears on the resolution source. If such an earthquake has not appeared on the resolution source by that time, another credible resolution source will be used.
This market may not resolve until the timeframe of this market has concluded. If a qualifying earthquake has been recorded on the final day, this market may remain open for 24 hours to allow for revisions to the recorded magnitude. After 24 hours, this market will resolve according to the latest provided data.
The resolution source for this market is the United States Geological Survey (USGS) Earthquake Hazards Program, with the minimum magnitude set to 6.5 and the date parameters set to the relevant dates for this market's timeframe (https://earthquake.usgs.gov/earthquakes/search/).
If an earthquake of substantial size has occurred within this market's timeframe but not yet appeared on the resolution source, this market may remain open until 48 hours after the market's closing time, or until the earthquake in question otherwise appears on the resolution source. If such an earthquake has not appeared on the resolution source by that time, another credible resolution source will be used.
This market may not resolve until the timeframe of this market has concluded. If a qualifying earthquake has been recorded on the final day, this market may remain open for 24 hours to allow for revisions to the recorded magnitude. After 24 hours, this market will resolve according to the latest provided data.
Volume
$413End Date
Sep 7, 2026Market Opened
Aug 28, 2026, 11:01 AM ETResolution Source
https://earthquake.usgs.gov/earthquakes/search/Resolver
0x69c47De9D...**Global rates of magnitude 6.5+ earthquakes average roughly 1–3 per week**, derived from USGS long-term catalogs showing ~134 events in the 6.0–6.9 range annually, with the 6.5+ subset following a Gutenberg-Richter distribution. The market’s heavy weighting toward 0 (46%) or 1 (35.5%) reflects this baseline Poisson rate for a narrow seven-day window, where natural week-to-week variability often produces zero or one such event. August 2026 has featured typical activity, including several M6.0+ quakes (e.g., M6.0 in Somalia on 27 August and M6.2 in the Scotia Sea on 22 August) but no global swarm or aftershock sequence elevating short-term odds. Absent any major foreshock sequences or unusual seismic indices, traders assign low probability to three or more events, consistent with historical precedent and the absence of near-term triggers.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated
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