Trader sentiment for the number of magnitude 5.5+ earthquakes worldwide from August 31 to September 6 reflects the high natural variability in global seismicity, with recent USGS data showing activity near long-term averages following the mid-August M7.7 Flores, Indonesia event and its aftershocks. Annual rates indicate roughly 1,900 M5+ quakes, or about 5 per day on average, though M5.5+ counts fluctuate weekly due to Poisson statistics, regional clustering along plate boundaries, and aftershock sequences that decay over days to weeks. No confirmed seasonal patterns or model consensus points to elevated or suppressed activity in early September, leaving outcomes from single digits to the mid-teens plausible depending on whether new sequences emerge or background rates hold. USGS catalog thresholds and real-time monitoring will determine resolution.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · UpdatedHow many 5.5 or above earthquakes worldwide August 31 - September 6?
How many 5.5 or above earthquakes worldwide August 31 - September 6?
≤6 28%
7 12%
8 12%
9 11%
NEW
NEW
Sep 7, 2026
≤6
28%
7
12%
8
12%
9
11%
10
9%
11
8%
12
7%
13
6%
more than 13
11%
≤6 28%
7 12%
8 12%
9 11%
NEW
NEW
Sep 7, 2026
≤6
$294 Vol.
28%
7
$14 Vol.
12%
8
$0 Vol.
12%
9
$0 Vol.
11%
10
$0 Vol.
9%
11
$0 Vol.
8%
12
$0 Vol.
7%
13
$0 Vol.
6%
more than 13
$0 Vol.
11%
This market will resolve according to the total number of earthquakes with a magnitude of 5.5 or higher that occur anywhere on Earth between August 31, 2026, 12:00 AM ET and September 6, 2026, 11:59 PM ET.
The resolution source for this market is the United States Geological Survey (USGS) Earthquake Hazards Program, with the minimum magnitude set to 5.5 and the date parameters set to the relevant dates for this market's timeframe (https://earthquake.usgs.gov/earthquakes/search/).
If an earthquake of substantial size has occurred within this market's timeframe but not yet appeared on the resolution source, this market may remain open until 48 hours after the market's closing time, or until the earthquake in question otherwise appears on the resolution source. If such an earthquake has not appeared on the resolution source by that time, another credible resolution source will be used.
This market may not resolve until the timeframe of this market has concluded. If a qualifying earthquake has been recorded on the final day, this market may remain open for 24 hours to allow for revisions to the recorded magnitude. After 24 hours, this market will resolve according to the latest provided data.Trader sentiment for the number of magnitude 5.5+ earthquakes worldwide from August 31 to September 6 reflects the high natural variability in global seismicity, with recent USGS data showing activity near long-term averages following the mid-August M7.7 Flores, Indonesia event and its aftershocks. Annual rates indicate roughly 1,900 M5+ quakes, or about 5 per day on average, though M5.5+ counts fluctuate weekly due to Poisson statistics, regional clustering along plate boundaries, and aftershock sequences that decay over days to weeks. No confirmed seasonal patterns or model consensus points to elevated or suppressed activity in early September, leaving outcomes from single digits to the mid-teens plausible depending on whether new sequences emerge or background rates hold. USGS catalog thresholds and real-time monitoring will determine resolution.
This market will resolve according to the total number of earthquakes with a magnitude of 5.5 or higher that occur anywhere on Earth between August 31, 2026, 12:00 AM ET and September 6, 2026, 11:59 PM ET.
The resolution source for this market is the United States Geological Survey (USGS) Earthquake Hazards Program, with the minimum magnitude set to 5.5 and the date parameters set to the relevant dates for this market's timeframe (https://earthquake.usgs.gov/earthquakes/search/).
If an earthquake of substantial size has occurred within this market's timeframe but not yet appeared on the resolution source, this market may remain open until 48 hours after the market's closing time, or until the earthquake in question otherwise appears on the resolution source. If such an earthquake has not appeared on the resolution source by that time, another credible resolution source will be used.
This market may not resolve until the timeframe of this market has concluded. If a qualifying earthquake has been recorded on the final day, this market may remain open for 24 hours to allow for revisions to the recorded magnitude. After 24 hours, this market will resolve according to the latest provided data.
The resolution source for this market is the United States Geological Survey (USGS) Earthquake Hazards Program, with the minimum magnitude set to 5.5 and the date parameters set to the relevant dates for this market's timeframe (https://earthquake.usgs.gov/earthquakes/search/).
If an earthquake of substantial size has occurred within this market's timeframe but not yet appeared on the resolution source, this market may remain open until 48 hours after the market's closing time, or until the earthquake in question otherwise appears on the resolution source. If such an earthquake has not appeared on the resolution source by that time, another credible resolution source will be used.
This market may not resolve until the timeframe of this market has concluded. If a qualifying earthquake has been recorded on the final day, this market may remain open for 24 hours to allow for revisions to the recorded magnitude. After 24 hours, this market will resolve according to the latest provided data.
Market Opened: Aug 28, 2026, 11:01 AM ET
Volume
$308End Date
Sep 7, 2026Market Opened
Aug 28, 2026, 11:01 AM ETResolution Source
https://earthquake.usgs.gov/earthquakes/search/Resolver
0x69c47De9D...This market will resolve according to the total number of earthquakes with a magnitude of 5.5 or higher that occur anywhere on Earth between August 31, 2026, 12:00 AM ET and September 6, 2026, 11:59 PM ET.
The resolution source for this market is the United States Geological Survey (USGS) Earthquake Hazards Program, with the minimum magnitude set to 5.5 and the date parameters set to the relevant dates for this market's timeframe (https://earthquake.usgs.gov/earthquakes/search/).
If an earthquake of substantial size has occurred within this market's timeframe but not yet appeared on the resolution source, this market may remain open until 48 hours after the market's closing time, or until the earthquake in question otherwise appears on the resolution source. If such an earthquake has not appeared on the resolution source by that time, another credible resolution source will be used.
This market may not resolve until the timeframe of this market has concluded. If a qualifying earthquake has been recorded on the final day, this market may remain open for 24 hours to allow for revisions to the recorded magnitude. After 24 hours, this market will resolve according to the latest provided data.Trader sentiment for the number of magnitude 5.5+ earthquakes worldwide from August 31 to September 6 reflects the high natural variability in global seismicity, with recent USGS data showing activity near long-term averages following the mid-August M7.7 Flores, Indonesia event and its aftershocks. Annual rates indicate roughly 1,900 M5+ quakes, or about 5 per day on average, though M5.5+ counts fluctuate weekly due to Poisson statistics, regional clustering along plate boundaries, and aftershock sequences that decay over days to weeks. No confirmed seasonal patterns or model consensus points to elevated or suppressed activity in early September, leaving outcomes from single digits to the mid-teens plausible depending on whether new sequences emerge or background rates hold. USGS catalog thresholds and real-time monitoring will determine resolution.
This market will resolve according to the total number of earthquakes with a magnitude of 5.5 or higher that occur anywhere on Earth between August 31, 2026, 12:00 AM ET and September 6, 2026, 11:59 PM ET.
The resolution source for this market is the United States Geological Survey (USGS) Earthquake Hazards Program, with the minimum magnitude set to 5.5 and the date parameters set to the relevant dates for this market's timeframe (https://earthquake.usgs.gov/earthquakes/search/).
If an earthquake of substantial size has occurred within this market's timeframe but not yet appeared on the resolution source, this market may remain open until 48 hours after the market's closing time, or until the earthquake in question otherwise appears on the resolution source. If such an earthquake has not appeared on the resolution source by that time, another credible resolution source will be used.
This market may not resolve until the timeframe of this market has concluded. If a qualifying earthquake has been recorded on the final day, this market may remain open for 24 hours to allow for revisions to the recorded magnitude. After 24 hours, this market will resolve according to the latest provided data.
The resolution source for this market is the United States Geological Survey (USGS) Earthquake Hazards Program, with the minimum magnitude set to 5.5 and the date parameters set to the relevant dates for this market's timeframe (https://earthquake.usgs.gov/earthquakes/search/).
If an earthquake of substantial size has occurred within this market's timeframe but not yet appeared on the resolution source, this market may remain open until 48 hours after the market's closing time, or until the earthquake in question otherwise appears on the resolution source. If such an earthquake has not appeared on the resolution source by that time, another credible resolution source will be used.
This market may not resolve until the timeframe of this market has concluded. If a qualifying earthquake has been recorded on the final day, this market may remain open for 24 hours to allow for revisions to the recorded magnitude. After 24 hours, this market will resolve according to the latest provided data.
Volume
$308End Date
Sep 7, 2026Market Opened
Aug 28, 2026, 11:01 AM ETResolution Source
https://earthquake.usgs.gov/earthquakes/search/Resolver
0x69c47De9D...Trader sentiment for the number of magnitude 5.5+ earthquakes worldwide from August 31 to September 6 reflects the high natural variability in global seismicity, with recent USGS data showing activity near long-term averages following the mid-August M7.7 Flores, Indonesia event and its aftershocks. Annual rates indicate roughly 1,900 M5+ quakes, or about 5 per day on average, though M5.5+ counts fluctuate weekly due to Poisson statistics, regional clustering along plate boundaries, and aftershock sequences that decay over days to weeks. No confirmed seasonal patterns or model consensus points to elevated or suppressed activity in early September, leaving outcomes from single digits to the mid-teens plausible depending on whether new sequences emerge or background rates hold. USGS catalog thresholds and real-time monitoring will determine resolution.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated
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