Recent National Weather Service and private model guidance points to a high near 86°F for Chicago on August 30, with south-southwest winds of 10-15 mph and gusts to 25 mph promoting mixing while partly cloudy skies limit full solar heating. This places the outcome near the market's tightest bins (84-85°F and 86-87°F). Daytime maximums hinge on morning cloud trends and any convective development, which could shave a degree or two if showers materialize after midday; climatologically, the date averages 81°F, so the current pattern reflects a modest warm anomaly. Model consensus remains stable but short-range forecasts can shift with the next 12Z or 00Z runs before resolution.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · UpdatedHighest temperature in Chicago on August 30?
Highest temperature in Chicago on August 30?
84-85°F 28%
86-87°F 23%
82-83°F 22%
88-89°F 12%
NEW
NEW
Aug 30, 2026
77°F or below
<1%
78-79°F
2%
80-81°F
13%
82-83°F
22%
84-85°F
28%
86-87°F
23%
88-89°F
12%
90-91°F
6%
92-93°F
3%
94-95°F
1%
96°F or higher
<1%
84-85°F 28%
86-87°F 23%
82-83°F 22%
88-89°F 12%
NEW
NEW
Aug 30, 2026
77°F or below
$127 Vol.
<1%
78-79°F
$61 Vol.
2%
80-81°F
$137 Vol.
13%
82-83°F
$107 Vol.
22%
84-85°F
$119 Vol.
28%
86-87°F
$53 Vol.
23%
88-89°F
$65 Vol.
12%
90-91°F
$32 Vol.
6%
92-93°F
$0 Vol.
3%
94-95°F
$0 Vol.
1%
96°F or higher
$353 Vol.
<1%
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Chicago O'Hare Intl Airport Station in degrees Fahrenheit on 30 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=kord
This market will resolve off of the Hourly Data provided using the "Show Hourly Data" button.
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to US Units w/ kts" button until the relevant table displays °F.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Fahrenheit (eg, 21°F). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.Recent National Weather Service and private model guidance points to a high near 86°F for Chicago on August 30, with south-southwest winds of 10-15 mph and gusts to 25 mph promoting mixing while partly cloudy skies limit full solar heating. This places the outcome near the market's tightest bins (84-85°F and 86-87°F). Daytime maximums hinge on morning cloud trends and any convective development, which could shave a degree or two if showers materialize after midday; climatologically, the date averages 81°F, so the current pattern reflects a modest warm anomaly. Model consensus remains stable but short-range forecasts can shift with the next 12Z or 00Z runs before resolution.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Chicago O'Hare Intl Airport Station in degrees Fahrenheit on 30 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=kord
This market will resolve off of the Hourly Data provided using the "Show Hourly Data" button.
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to US Units w/ kts" button until the relevant table displays °F.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Fahrenheit (eg, 21°F). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=kord
This market will resolve off of the Hourly Data provided using the "Show Hourly Data" button.
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to US Units w/ kts" button until the relevant table displays °F.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Fahrenheit (eg, 21°F). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
Market Opened: Aug 28, 2026, 10:56 AM ET
Volume
$1,054End Date
Aug 30, 2026Market Opened
Aug 28, 2026, 10:56 AM ETResolution Source
https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=kordResolver
0x69c47De9D...This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Chicago O'Hare Intl Airport Station in degrees Fahrenheit on 30 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=kord
This market will resolve off of the Hourly Data provided using the "Show Hourly Data" button.
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to US Units w/ kts" button until the relevant table displays °F.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Fahrenheit (eg, 21°F). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.Recent National Weather Service and private model guidance points to a high near 86°F for Chicago on August 30, with south-southwest winds of 10-15 mph and gusts to 25 mph promoting mixing while partly cloudy skies limit full solar heating. This places the outcome near the market's tightest bins (84-85°F and 86-87°F). Daytime maximums hinge on morning cloud trends and any convective development, which could shave a degree or two if showers materialize after midday; climatologically, the date averages 81°F, so the current pattern reflects a modest warm anomaly. Model consensus remains stable but short-range forecasts can shift with the next 12Z or 00Z runs before resolution.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Chicago O'Hare Intl Airport Station in degrees Fahrenheit on 30 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=kord
This market will resolve off of the Hourly Data provided using the "Show Hourly Data" button.
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to US Units w/ kts" button until the relevant table displays °F.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Fahrenheit (eg, 21°F). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=kord
This market will resolve off of the Hourly Data provided using the "Show Hourly Data" button.
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to US Units w/ kts" button until the relevant table displays °F.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Fahrenheit (eg, 21°F). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
Volume
$1,054End Date
Aug 30, 2026Market Opened
Aug 28, 2026, 10:56 AM ETResolution Source
https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=kordResolver
0x69c47De9D...Recent National Weather Service and private model guidance points to a high near 86°F for Chicago on August 30, with south-southwest winds of 10-15 mph and gusts to 25 mph promoting mixing while partly cloudy skies limit full solar heating. This places the outcome near the market's tightest bins (84-85°F and 86-87°F). Daytime maximums hinge on morning cloud trends and any convective development, which could shave a degree or two if showers materialize after midday; climatologically, the date averages 81°F, so the current pattern reflects a modest warm anomaly. Model consensus remains stable but short-range forecasts can shift with the next 12Z or 00Z runs before resolution.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated
Beware of external links.
Beware of external links.
Frequently Asked Questions