**Trader sentiment for Denver's lowest temperature on August 25, 2026, reflects genuine uncertainty around the overnight minimum in a high-elevation desert climate.** Current forecasts from the National Weather Service and AccuWeather point to a low near 62–65°F, aligning with the leading 64–65°F outcome at 36% implied probability. This range sits slightly above late-August normals of roughly 57–60°F, driven by recent warm-air advection after early-month heat and variable cloud cover that limits radiative cooling. Key scientific differentiators include surface radiative cooling rates under clear versus cloudy skies, wind mixing that prevents temperature inversions, and any residual thunderstorm activity or moisture that raises dew points and slows nocturnal temperature drops. The 30.5% odds on 72°F or higher capture the risk of limited cooling from persistent clouds or a warmer-than-expected boundary layer, while the 28% on 53°F or below accounts for the possibility of unusually clear, calm conditions allowing stronger longwave radiation loss at 5,280 feet elevation. Recent model runs show modest spread in minimum temperature guidance, keeping multiple bins (60–61°F through 68–69°F) clustered near 25–27.5% as traders weigh the final hours of the diurnal cycle and any last-minute forecast adjustments from NOAA.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · UpdatedLowest temperature in Denver on August 25?
Lowest temperature in Denver on August 25?
72°F or higher 67%
53°F or below 56%
64-65°F 37%
60-61°F 28%
NEW
NEW
Aug 25, 2026
53°F or below
56%
54-55°F
1%
56-57°F
2%
58-59°F
26%
60-61°F
28%
62-63°F
25%
64-65°F
37%
66-67°F
27%
68-69°F
25%
70-71°F
2%
72°F or higher
67%
72°F or higher 67%
53°F or below 56%
64-65°F 37%
60-61°F 28%
NEW
NEW
Aug 25, 2026
53°F or below
$155 Vol.
56%
54-55°F
$15 Vol.
1%
56-57°F
$54 Vol.
2%
58-59°F
$0 Vol.
26%
60-61°F
$0 Vol.
28%
62-63°F
$0 Vol.
25%
64-65°F
$0 Vol.
37%
66-67°F
$10 Vol.
27%
68-69°F
$155 Vol.
25%
70-71°F
$15 Vol.
2%
72°F or higher
$10 Vol.
67%
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Buckley Space Force Base Station in degrees Fahrenheit on 25 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=kbkf
This market will resolve off of the Hourly Data provided using the "Show Hourly Data" button.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to US Units w/ kts" button until the relevant table displays °F.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Fahrenheit (eg, 21°F). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.**Trader sentiment for Denver's lowest temperature on August 25, 2026, reflects genuine uncertainty around the overnight minimum in a high-elevation desert climate.** Current forecasts from the National Weather Service and AccuWeather point to a low near 62–65°F, aligning with the leading 64–65°F outcome at 36% implied probability. This range sits slightly above late-August normals of roughly 57–60°F, driven by recent warm-air advection after early-month heat and variable cloud cover that limits radiative cooling.
Key scientific differentiators include surface radiative cooling rates under clear versus cloudy skies, wind mixing that prevents temperature inversions, and any residual thunderstorm activity or moisture that raises dew points and slows nocturnal temperature drops. The 30.5% odds on 72°F or higher capture the risk of limited cooling from persistent clouds or a warmer-than-expected boundary layer, while the 28% on 53°F or below accounts for the possibility of unusually clear, calm conditions allowing stronger longwave radiation loss at 5,280 feet elevation.
Recent model runs show modest spread in minimum temperature guidance, keeping multiple bins (60–61°F through 68–69°F) clustered near 25–27.5% as traders weigh the final hours of the diurnal cycle and any last-minute forecast adjustments from NOAA.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Buckley Space Force Base Station in degrees Fahrenheit on 25 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=kbkf
This market will resolve off of the Hourly Data provided using the "Show Hourly Data" button.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to US Units w/ kts" button until the relevant table displays °F.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Fahrenheit (eg, 21°F). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=kbkf
This market will resolve off of the Hourly Data provided using the "Show Hourly Data" button.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to US Units w/ kts" button until the relevant table displays °F.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Fahrenheit (eg, 21°F). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
Market Opened: Aug 23, 2026, 9:30 PM ET
Volume
$414End Date
Aug 25, 2026Market Opened
Aug 23, 2026, 9:30 PM ETResolution Source
https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=kbkfResolver
0x69c47De9D...This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Buckley Space Force Base Station in degrees Fahrenheit on 25 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=kbkf
This market will resolve off of the Hourly Data provided using the "Show Hourly Data" button.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to US Units w/ kts" button until the relevant table displays °F.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Fahrenheit (eg, 21°F). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.**Trader sentiment for Denver's lowest temperature on August 25, 2026, reflects genuine uncertainty around the overnight minimum in a high-elevation desert climate.** Current forecasts from the National Weather Service and AccuWeather point to a low near 62–65°F, aligning with the leading 64–65°F outcome at 36% implied probability. This range sits slightly above late-August normals of roughly 57–60°F, driven by recent warm-air advection after early-month heat and variable cloud cover that limits radiative cooling.
Key scientific differentiators include surface radiative cooling rates under clear versus cloudy skies, wind mixing that prevents temperature inversions, and any residual thunderstorm activity or moisture that raises dew points and slows nocturnal temperature drops. The 30.5% odds on 72°F or higher capture the risk of limited cooling from persistent clouds or a warmer-than-expected boundary layer, while the 28% on 53°F or below accounts for the possibility of unusually clear, calm conditions allowing stronger longwave radiation loss at 5,280 feet elevation.
Recent model runs show modest spread in minimum temperature guidance, keeping multiple bins (60–61°F through 68–69°F) clustered near 25–27.5% as traders weigh the final hours of the diurnal cycle and any last-minute forecast adjustments from NOAA.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Buckley Space Force Base Station in degrees Fahrenheit on 25 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=kbkf
This market will resolve off of the Hourly Data provided using the "Show Hourly Data" button.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to US Units w/ kts" button until the relevant table displays °F.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Fahrenheit (eg, 21°F). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=kbkf
This market will resolve off of the Hourly Data provided using the "Show Hourly Data" button.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to US Units w/ kts" button until the relevant table displays °F.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Fahrenheit (eg, 21°F). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
Volume
$414End Date
Aug 25, 2026Market Opened
Aug 23, 2026, 9:30 PM ETResolution Source
https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=kbkfResolver
0x69c47De9D...**Trader sentiment for Denver's lowest temperature on August 25, 2026, reflects genuine uncertainty around the overnight minimum in a high-elevation desert climate.** Current forecasts from the National Weather Service and AccuWeather point to a low near 62–65°F, aligning with the leading 64–65°F outcome at 36% implied probability. This range sits slightly above late-August normals of roughly 57–60°F, driven by recent warm-air advection after early-month heat and variable cloud cover that limits radiative cooling. Key scientific differentiators include surface radiative cooling rates under clear versus cloudy skies, wind mixing that prevents temperature inversions, and any residual thunderstorm activity or moisture that raises dew points and slows nocturnal temperature drops. The 30.5% odds on 72°F or higher capture the risk of limited cooling from persistent clouds or a warmer-than-expected boundary layer, while the 28% on 53°F or below accounts for the possibility of unusually clear, calm conditions allowing stronger longwave radiation loss at 5,280 feet elevation. Recent model runs show modest spread in minimum temperature guidance, keeping multiple bins (60–61°F through 68–69°F) clustered near 25–27.5% as traders weigh the final hours of the diurnal cycle and any last-minute forecast adjustments from NOAA.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated
Beware of external links.
Beware of external links.
Frequently Asked Questions