Recent polls for Tocantins's two Senate seats show Eduardo Gomes (PL) leading with 14-26% support, while second place remains fragmented among Alexandre Guimarães (MDB) at 8-18%, Gaguim (União) at 10-13%, Paulo Mourão (PT) at 6-9%, and lower shares for Vanderlei Luxemburgo, Ronaldo Dimas, and Eli Borges. High indecision—often 24-86% across stimulated and spontaneous scenarios—combined with voters selecting two names sustains tight positioning for the runner-up spot. Recent candidate registrations through mid-August and confirmations of candidacies like Gaguim's have clarified the field without shifting frontrunner dynamics. Trader consensus on second place reflects this fragmentation and the dual-vote system, with Gaguim and Guimarães holding the strongest implied probabilities. Further polling releases, campaign momentum in key regions, or changes in rejection levels could widen gaps ahead of the October 4 vote.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · UpdatedGaguim 34.9%
Alexandre Guimarães 34%
Eduardo Gomes 16.6%
Vanderlei Luxemburgo 5%
$24,246 Vol.
$24,246 Vol.
Oct 4, 2026
Gaguim
35%
Alexandre Guimarães
34%
Eduardo Gomes
18%
Vanderlei Luxemburgo
5%
Paulo Mourão
3%
Eli Borges
1%
Ronaldo Dimas
<1%
Nilton Santos
<1%
Apóstolo Flavio Braga
<1%
Fábio Ribeiro
<1%
Helio Rodrigues Bolsonaro
<1%
Osvany Luz
<1%
Professor Osvaldo
<1%
Gaguim 34.9%
Alexandre Guimarães 34%
Eduardo Gomes 16.6%
Vanderlei Luxemburgo 5%
$24,246 Vol.
$24,246 Vol.
Oct 4, 2026
Gaguim
$2,626 Vol.
35%
Alexandre Guimarães
$13,538 Vol.
34%
Eduardo Gomes
$1,136 Vol.
18%
Vanderlei Luxemburgo
$358 Vol.
5%
Paulo Mourão
$4,045 Vol.
3%
Eli Borges
$461 Vol.
1%
Ronaldo Dimas
$307 Vol.
<1%
Nilton Santos
$318 Vol.
<1%
Apóstolo Flavio Braga
$268 Vol.
<1%
Fábio Ribeiro
$273 Vol.
<1%
Helio Rodrigues Bolsonaro
$302 Vol.
<1%
Osvany Luz
$350 Vol.
<1%
Professor Osvaldo
$265 Vol.
<1%
The Brazilian Federal Senate election for Tocantins is scheduled to take place on October 4, 2026.
This market will resolve according to the candidate who wins the second-most valid votes of any candidate at the specified election.
Candidates will be primarily ranked by order of valid votes won. If two or more candidates are tied for any position, ties will be broken by alphabetical order of the candidates’ listed full names as they appear in this market. This market will resolve to the candidate that occupies the second-highest finishing position after applying this ranking.
If the result of this election isn't definitively known by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "Other".
This market will resolve based on the result of the election, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Brazilian government, specifically the Superior Electoral Court (Tribunal Superior Eleitoral, TSE) (e.g., www.tse.jus.br/eleicoes/resultados-eleicoes).Recent polls for Tocantins's two Senate seats show Eduardo Gomes (PL) leading with 14-26% support, while second place remains fragmented among Alexandre Guimarães (MDB) at 8-18%, Gaguim (União) at 10-13%, Paulo Mourão (PT) at 6-9%, and lower shares for Vanderlei Luxemburgo, Ronaldo Dimas, and Eli Borges. High indecision—often 24-86% across stimulated and spontaneous scenarios—combined with voters selecting two names sustains tight positioning for the runner-up spot. Recent candidate registrations through mid-August and confirmations of candidacies like Gaguim's have clarified the field without shifting frontrunner dynamics. Trader consensus on second place reflects this fragmentation and the dual-vote system, with Gaguim and Guimarães holding the strongest implied probabilities. Further polling releases, campaign momentum in key regions, or changes in rejection levels could widen gaps ahead of the October 4 vote.
The Brazilian Federal Senate election for Tocantins is scheduled to take place on October 4, 2026.
This market will resolve according to the candidate who wins the second-most valid votes of any candidate at the specified election.
Candidates will be primarily ranked by order of valid votes won. If two or more candidates are tied for any position, ties will be broken by alphabetical order of the candidates’ listed full names as they appear in this market. This market will resolve to the candidate that occupies the second-highest finishing position after applying this ranking.
If the result of this election isn't definitively known by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "Other".
This market will resolve based on the result of the election, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Brazilian government, specifically the Superior Electoral Court (Tribunal Superior Eleitoral, TSE) (e.g., www.tse.jus.br/eleicoes/resultados-eleicoes).
This market will resolve according to the candidate who wins the second-most valid votes of any candidate at the specified election.
Candidates will be primarily ranked by order of valid votes won. If two or more candidates are tied for any position, ties will be broken by alphabetical order of the candidates’ listed full names as they appear in this market. This market will resolve to the candidate that occupies the second-highest finishing position after applying this ranking.
If the result of this election isn't definitively known by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "Other".
This market will resolve based on the result of the election, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Brazilian government, specifically the Superior Electoral Court (Tribunal Superior Eleitoral, TSE) (e.g., www.tse.jus.br/eleicoes/resultados-eleicoes).
Market Opened: Aug 17, 2026, 6:16 AM ET
Volume
$24,246End Date
Oct 4, 2026Market Opened
Aug 17, 2026, 6:16 AM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...The Brazilian Federal Senate election for Tocantins is scheduled to take place on October 4, 2026.
This market will resolve according to the candidate who wins the second-most valid votes of any candidate at the specified election.
Candidates will be primarily ranked by order of valid votes won. If two or more candidates are tied for any position, ties will be broken by alphabetical order of the candidates’ listed full names as they appear in this market. This market will resolve to the candidate that occupies the second-highest finishing position after applying this ranking.
If the result of this election isn't definitively known by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "Other".
This market will resolve based on the result of the election, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Brazilian government, specifically the Superior Electoral Court (Tribunal Superior Eleitoral, TSE) (e.g., www.tse.jus.br/eleicoes/resultados-eleicoes).Recent polls for Tocantins's two Senate seats show Eduardo Gomes (PL) leading with 14-26% support, while second place remains fragmented among Alexandre Guimarães (MDB) at 8-18%, Gaguim (União) at 10-13%, Paulo Mourão (PT) at 6-9%, and lower shares for Vanderlei Luxemburgo, Ronaldo Dimas, and Eli Borges. High indecision—often 24-86% across stimulated and spontaneous scenarios—combined with voters selecting two names sustains tight positioning for the runner-up spot. Recent candidate registrations through mid-August and confirmations of candidacies like Gaguim's have clarified the field without shifting frontrunner dynamics. Trader consensus on second place reflects this fragmentation and the dual-vote system, with Gaguim and Guimarães holding the strongest implied probabilities. Further polling releases, campaign momentum in key regions, or changes in rejection levels could widen gaps ahead of the October 4 vote.
The Brazilian Federal Senate election for Tocantins is scheduled to take place on October 4, 2026.
This market will resolve according to the candidate who wins the second-most valid votes of any candidate at the specified election.
Candidates will be primarily ranked by order of valid votes won. If two or more candidates are tied for any position, ties will be broken by alphabetical order of the candidates’ listed full names as they appear in this market. This market will resolve to the candidate that occupies the second-highest finishing position after applying this ranking.
If the result of this election isn't definitively known by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "Other".
This market will resolve based on the result of the election, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Brazilian government, specifically the Superior Electoral Court (Tribunal Superior Eleitoral, TSE) (e.g., www.tse.jus.br/eleicoes/resultados-eleicoes).
This market will resolve according to the candidate who wins the second-most valid votes of any candidate at the specified election.
Candidates will be primarily ranked by order of valid votes won. If two or more candidates are tied for any position, ties will be broken by alphabetical order of the candidates’ listed full names as they appear in this market. This market will resolve to the candidate that occupies the second-highest finishing position after applying this ranking.
If the result of this election isn't definitively known by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "Other".
This market will resolve based on the result of the election, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Brazilian government, specifically the Superior Electoral Court (Tribunal Superior Eleitoral, TSE) (e.g., www.tse.jus.br/eleicoes/resultados-eleicoes).
Volume
$24,246End Date
Oct 4, 2026Market Opened
Aug 17, 2026, 6:16 AM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...Recent polls for Tocantins's two Senate seats show Eduardo Gomes (PL) leading with 14-26% support, while second place remains fragmented among Alexandre Guimarães (MDB) at 8-18%, Gaguim (União) at 10-13%, Paulo Mourão (PT) at 6-9%, and lower shares for Vanderlei Luxemburgo, Ronaldo Dimas, and Eli Borges. High indecision—often 24-86% across stimulated and spontaneous scenarios—combined with voters selecting two names sustains tight positioning for the runner-up spot. Recent candidate registrations through mid-August and confirmations of candidacies like Gaguim's have clarified the field without shifting frontrunner dynamics. Trader consensus on second place reflects this fragmentation and the dual-vote system, with Gaguim and Guimarães holding the strongest implied probabilities. Further polling releases, campaign momentum in key regions, or changes in rejection levels could widen gaps ahead of the October 4 vote.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated
Beware of external links.
Beware of external links.
Frequently Asked Questions