**Recent Swedish opinion polls place Moderaterna (M) support in the 17–19% range ahead of the September 13, 2026 parliamentary election, supporting the 64.5% trader consensus on “Over 17%.”** Multiple late-August surveys show modest upward movement or stabilization for M after earlier dips: Indikator Opinion recorded 18.9%, Ipsos 17.9%, and Demoskop 17.2%. These figures sit near or above the threshold, consistent with the right-wing Tidö bloc (M, KD, L, with SD backing) narrowing the overall gap to the centre-left opposition from roughly 9 points in June to about 4.7 points. Campaign focus on cost of living, security, immigration, crime, and energy has not produced dramatic shifts for M, whose leader Ulf Kristersson heads the incumbent government. Traders appear to weigh the cluster of recent results above 17% more heavily than isolated earlier readings near or below the line, producing the current implied probability for the over outcome.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · UpdatedOver
65% chance
NEW
NEW
Sep 12, 2026
Over
65% chance
NEW
NEW
Sep 12, 2026
Parliamentary elections are scheduled to be held in Sweden on September 13, 2026.
This market will resolve to “Over” if Moderate Party (M) wins at least 17% of all valid votes in the specified election
This market will resolve to “Under” if Moderate Party (M) wins less than 17% of all valid votes in the specified election
This market will resolve solely based on the percentage of valid votes won by the specified party, defined as the number of valid votes won by the specified party divided by the total number of valid votes in the specified election.
Valid vote percentages will be counted only where the Swedish Election Authority attributes them to the aforementioned party. Vote percentages attributed to other parties or electoral designations will not count, regardless of electoral cooperation, endorsements, coalition agreements, or subsequent parliamentary-group arrangements. If the specified party formally merges into a successor party before the election and does not contest separately, the valid vote percentage of the successor party will count towards resolution.
If the results of this election are not definitively known by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve 50-50.
This market will resolve based on the results of this election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Swedish government, specifically the Swedish Election Authority (Valmyndigheten) (https://www.val.se/).**Recent Swedish opinion polls place Moderaterna (M) support in the 17–19% range ahead of the September 13, 2026 parliamentary election, supporting the 64.5% trader consensus on “Over 17%.”**
Multiple late-August surveys show modest upward movement or stabilization for M after earlier dips: Indikator Opinion recorded 18.9%, Ipsos 17.9%, and Demoskop 17.2%. These figures sit near or above the threshold, consistent with the right-wing Tidö bloc (M, KD, L, with SD backing) narrowing the overall gap to the centre-left opposition from roughly 9 points in June to about 4.7 points. Campaign focus on cost of living, security, immigration, crime, and energy has not produced dramatic shifts for M, whose leader Ulf Kristersson heads the incumbent government. Traders appear to weigh the cluster of recent results above 17% more heavily than isolated earlier readings near or below the line, producing the current implied probability for the over outcome.
Parliamentary elections are scheduled to be held in Sweden on September 13, 2026.
This market will resolve to “Over” if Moderate Party (M) wins at least 17% of all valid votes in the specified election
This market will resolve to “Under” if Moderate Party (M) wins less than 17% of all valid votes in the specified election
This market will resolve solely based on the percentage of valid votes won by the specified party, defined as the number of valid votes won by the specified party divided by the total number of valid votes in the specified election.
Valid vote percentages will be counted only where the Swedish Election Authority attributes them to the aforementioned party. Vote percentages attributed to other parties or electoral designations will not count, regardless of electoral cooperation, endorsements, coalition agreements, or subsequent parliamentary-group arrangements. If the specified party formally merges into a successor party before the election and does not contest separately, the valid vote percentage of the successor party will count towards resolution.
If the results of this election are not definitively known by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve 50-50.
This market will resolve based on the results of this election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Swedish government, specifically the Swedish Election Authority (Valmyndigheten) (https://www.val.se/).
This market will resolve to “Over” if Moderate Party (M) wins at least 17% of all valid votes in the specified election
This market will resolve to “Under” if Moderate Party (M) wins less than 17% of all valid votes in the specified election
This market will resolve solely based on the percentage of valid votes won by the specified party, defined as the number of valid votes won by the specified party divided by the total number of valid votes in the specified election.
Valid vote percentages will be counted only where the Swedish Election Authority attributes them to the aforementioned party. Vote percentages attributed to other parties or electoral designations will not count, regardless of electoral cooperation, endorsements, coalition agreements, or subsequent parliamentary-group arrangements. If the specified party formally merges into a successor party before the election and does not contest separately, the valid vote percentage of the successor party will count towards resolution.
If the results of this election are not definitively known by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve 50-50.
This market will resolve based on the results of this election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Swedish government, specifically the Swedish Election Authority (Valmyndigheten) (https://www.val.se/).
Market Opened: Aug 13, 2026, 5:38 AM ET
Volume
$713End Date
Sep 13, 2026Market Opened
Aug 13, 2026, 5:38 AM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...Parliamentary elections are scheduled to be held in Sweden on September 13, 2026.
This market will resolve to “Over” if Moderate Party (M) wins at least 17% of all valid votes in the specified election
This market will resolve to “Under” if Moderate Party (M) wins less than 17% of all valid votes in the specified election
This market will resolve solely based on the percentage of valid votes won by the specified party, defined as the number of valid votes won by the specified party divided by the total number of valid votes in the specified election.
Valid vote percentages will be counted only where the Swedish Election Authority attributes them to the aforementioned party. Vote percentages attributed to other parties or electoral designations will not count, regardless of electoral cooperation, endorsements, coalition agreements, or subsequent parliamentary-group arrangements. If the specified party formally merges into a successor party before the election and does not contest separately, the valid vote percentage of the successor party will count towards resolution.
If the results of this election are not definitively known by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve 50-50.
This market will resolve based on the results of this election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Swedish government, specifically the Swedish Election Authority (Valmyndigheten) (https://www.val.se/).**Recent Swedish opinion polls place Moderaterna (M) support in the 17–19% range ahead of the September 13, 2026 parliamentary election, supporting the 64.5% trader consensus on “Over 17%.”**
Multiple late-August surveys show modest upward movement or stabilization for M after earlier dips: Indikator Opinion recorded 18.9%, Ipsos 17.9%, and Demoskop 17.2%. These figures sit near or above the threshold, consistent with the right-wing Tidö bloc (M, KD, L, with SD backing) narrowing the overall gap to the centre-left opposition from roughly 9 points in June to about 4.7 points. Campaign focus on cost of living, security, immigration, crime, and energy has not produced dramatic shifts for M, whose leader Ulf Kristersson heads the incumbent government. Traders appear to weigh the cluster of recent results above 17% more heavily than isolated earlier readings near or below the line, producing the current implied probability for the over outcome.
Parliamentary elections are scheduled to be held in Sweden on September 13, 2026.
This market will resolve to “Over” if Moderate Party (M) wins at least 17% of all valid votes in the specified election
This market will resolve to “Under” if Moderate Party (M) wins less than 17% of all valid votes in the specified election
This market will resolve solely based on the percentage of valid votes won by the specified party, defined as the number of valid votes won by the specified party divided by the total number of valid votes in the specified election.
Valid vote percentages will be counted only where the Swedish Election Authority attributes them to the aforementioned party. Vote percentages attributed to other parties or electoral designations will not count, regardless of electoral cooperation, endorsements, coalition agreements, or subsequent parliamentary-group arrangements. If the specified party formally merges into a successor party before the election and does not contest separately, the valid vote percentage of the successor party will count towards resolution.
If the results of this election are not definitively known by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve 50-50.
This market will resolve based on the results of this election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Swedish government, specifically the Swedish Election Authority (Valmyndigheten) (https://www.val.se/).
This market will resolve to “Over” if Moderate Party (M) wins at least 17% of all valid votes in the specified election
This market will resolve to “Under” if Moderate Party (M) wins less than 17% of all valid votes in the specified election
This market will resolve solely based on the percentage of valid votes won by the specified party, defined as the number of valid votes won by the specified party divided by the total number of valid votes in the specified election.
Valid vote percentages will be counted only where the Swedish Election Authority attributes them to the aforementioned party. Vote percentages attributed to other parties or electoral designations will not count, regardless of electoral cooperation, endorsements, coalition agreements, or subsequent parliamentary-group arrangements. If the specified party formally merges into a successor party before the election and does not contest separately, the valid vote percentage of the successor party will count towards resolution.
If the results of this election are not definitively known by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve 50-50.
This market will resolve based on the results of this election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Swedish government, specifically the Swedish Election Authority (Valmyndigheten) (https://www.val.se/).
Volume
$713End Date
Sep 13, 2026Market Opened
Aug 13, 2026, 5:38 AM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...**Recent Swedish opinion polls place Moderaterna (M) support in the 17–19% range ahead of the September 13, 2026 parliamentary election, supporting the 64.5% trader consensus on “Over 17%.”** Multiple late-August surveys show modest upward movement or stabilization for M after earlier dips: Indikator Opinion recorded 18.9%, Ipsos 17.9%, and Demoskop 17.2%. These figures sit near or above the threshold, consistent with the right-wing Tidö bloc (M, KD, L, with SD backing) narrowing the overall gap to the centre-left opposition from roughly 9 points in June to about 4.7 points. Campaign focus on cost of living, security, immigration, crime, and energy has not produced dramatic shifts for M, whose leader Ulf Kristersson heads the incumbent government. Traders appear to weigh the cluster of recent results above 17% more heavily than isolated earlier readings near or below the line, producing the current implied probability for the over outcome.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated
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