Recent polls ahead of Sweden’s September 13 parliamentary election show the Social Democrats (S) hovering near or below 31 percent, with the latest Demoskop, Ipsos, and Indikator surveys placing the party at 30.3–31.3 percent. Aggregators put S at roughly 30.5 percent, reflecting a sustained decline since late 2025 when readings exceeded 33–36 percent. The right-leaning Tidö bloc has narrowed the overall opposition lead from around 9 points in June to 4.7 points in the most recent Indikator poll, driven by gains for the Moderates and Sweden Democrats. Campaign attention to cost-of-living pressures, security, immigration, and energy has coincided with this softening in S support. With the vote less than three weeks away, current polling trends underpin the market’s assessment that S is more likely to finish under the 31 percent threshold.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · UpdatedSweden Parliamentary Election: S Over/Under 31%?
Sweden Parliamentary Election: S Over/Under 31%?
Over
35% chance
NEW
NEW
Sep 12, 2026
Over
35% chance
NEW
NEW
Sep 12, 2026
Parliamentary elections are scheduled to be held in Sweden on September 13, 2026.
This market will resolve to “Over” if Swedish Social Democratic Party (S) wins at least 31% of all valid votes in the specified election
This market will resolve to “Under” if Swedish Social Democratic Party (S) wins less than 31% of all valid votes in the specified election
This market will resolve solely based on the percentage of valid votes won by the specified party, defined as the number of valid votes won by the specified party divided by the total number of valid votes in the specified election.
Valid vote percentages will be counted only where the Swedish Election Authority attributes them to the aforementioned party. Vote percentages attributed to other parties or electoral designations will not count, regardless of electoral cooperation, endorsements, coalition agreements, or subsequent parliamentary-group arrangements. If the specified party formally merges into a successor party before the election and does not contest separately, the valid vote percentage of the successor party will count towards resolution.
If the results of this election are not definitively known by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve 50-50.
This market will resolve based on the results of this election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Swedish government, specifically the Swedish Election Authority (Valmyndigheten) (https://www.val.se/).Recent polls ahead of Sweden’s September 13 parliamentary election show the Social Democrats (S) hovering near or below 31 percent, with the latest Demoskop, Ipsos, and Indikator surveys placing the party at 30.3–31.3 percent. Aggregators put S at roughly 30.5 percent, reflecting a sustained decline since late 2025 when readings exceeded 33–36 percent. The right-leaning Tidö bloc has narrowed the overall opposition lead from around 9 points in June to 4.7 points in the most recent Indikator poll, driven by gains for the Moderates and Sweden Democrats. Campaign attention to cost-of-living pressures, security, immigration, and energy has coincided with this softening in S support. With the vote less than three weeks away, current polling trends underpin the market’s assessment that S is more likely to finish under the 31 percent threshold.
Parliamentary elections are scheduled to be held in Sweden on September 13, 2026.
This market will resolve to “Over” if Swedish Social Democratic Party (S) wins at least 31% of all valid votes in the specified election
This market will resolve to “Under” if Swedish Social Democratic Party (S) wins less than 31% of all valid votes in the specified election
This market will resolve solely based on the percentage of valid votes won by the specified party, defined as the number of valid votes won by the specified party divided by the total number of valid votes in the specified election.
Valid vote percentages will be counted only where the Swedish Election Authority attributes them to the aforementioned party. Vote percentages attributed to other parties or electoral designations will not count, regardless of electoral cooperation, endorsements, coalition agreements, or subsequent parliamentary-group arrangements. If the specified party formally merges into a successor party before the election and does not contest separately, the valid vote percentage of the successor party will count towards resolution.
If the results of this election are not definitively known by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve 50-50.
This market will resolve based on the results of this election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Swedish government, specifically the Swedish Election Authority (Valmyndigheten) (https://www.val.se/).
This market will resolve to “Over” if Swedish Social Democratic Party (S) wins at least 31% of all valid votes in the specified election
This market will resolve to “Under” if Swedish Social Democratic Party (S) wins less than 31% of all valid votes in the specified election
This market will resolve solely based on the percentage of valid votes won by the specified party, defined as the number of valid votes won by the specified party divided by the total number of valid votes in the specified election.
Valid vote percentages will be counted only where the Swedish Election Authority attributes them to the aforementioned party. Vote percentages attributed to other parties or electoral designations will not count, regardless of electoral cooperation, endorsements, coalition agreements, or subsequent parliamentary-group arrangements. If the specified party formally merges into a successor party before the election and does not contest separately, the valid vote percentage of the successor party will count towards resolution.
If the results of this election are not definitively known by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve 50-50.
This market will resolve based on the results of this election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Swedish government, specifically the Swedish Election Authority (Valmyndigheten) (https://www.val.se/).
Market Opened: Aug 13, 2026, 5:37 AM ET
Volume
$168End Date
Sep 13, 2026Market Opened
Aug 13, 2026, 5:37 AM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...Parliamentary elections are scheduled to be held in Sweden on September 13, 2026.
This market will resolve to “Over” if Swedish Social Democratic Party (S) wins at least 31% of all valid votes in the specified election
This market will resolve to “Under” if Swedish Social Democratic Party (S) wins less than 31% of all valid votes in the specified election
This market will resolve solely based on the percentage of valid votes won by the specified party, defined as the number of valid votes won by the specified party divided by the total number of valid votes in the specified election.
Valid vote percentages will be counted only where the Swedish Election Authority attributes them to the aforementioned party. Vote percentages attributed to other parties or electoral designations will not count, regardless of electoral cooperation, endorsements, coalition agreements, or subsequent parliamentary-group arrangements. If the specified party formally merges into a successor party before the election and does not contest separately, the valid vote percentage of the successor party will count towards resolution.
If the results of this election are not definitively known by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve 50-50.
This market will resolve based on the results of this election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Swedish government, specifically the Swedish Election Authority (Valmyndigheten) (https://www.val.se/).Recent polls ahead of Sweden’s September 13 parliamentary election show the Social Democrats (S) hovering near or below 31 percent, with the latest Demoskop, Ipsos, and Indikator surveys placing the party at 30.3–31.3 percent. Aggregators put S at roughly 30.5 percent, reflecting a sustained decline since late 2025 when readings exceeded 33–36 percent. The right-leaning Tidö bloc has narrowed the overall opposition lead from around 9 points in June to 4.7 points in the most recent Indikator poll, driven by gains for the Moderates and Sweden Democrats. Campaign attention to cost-of-living pressures, security, immigration, and energy has coincided with this softening in S support. With the vote less than three weeks away, current polling trends underpin the market’s assessment that S is more likely to finish under the 31 percent threshold.
Parliamentary elections are scheduled to be held in Sweden on September 13, 2026.
This market will resolve to “Over” if Swedish Social Democratic Party (S) wins at least 31% of all valid votes in the specified election
This market will resolve to “Under” if Swedish Social Democratic Party (S) wins less than 31% of all valid votes in the specified election
This market will resolve solely based on the percentage of valid votes won by the specified party, defined as the number of valid votes won by the specified party divided by the total number of valid votes in the specified election.
Valid vote percentages will be counted only where the Swedish Election Authority attributes them to the aforementioned party. Vote percentages attributed to other parties or electoral designations will not count, regardless of electoral cooperation, endorsements, coalition agreements, or subsequent parliamentary-group arrangements. If the specified party formally merges into a successor party before the election and does not contest separately, the valid vote percentage of the successor party will count towards resolution.
If the results of this election are not definitively known by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve 50-50.
This market will resolve based on the results of this election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Swedish government, specifically the Swedish Election Authority (Valmyndigheten) (https://www.val.se/).
This market will resolve to “Over” if Swedish Social Democratic Party (S) wins at least 31% of all valid votes in the specified election
This market will resolve to “Under” if Swedish Social Democratic Party (S) wins less than 31% of all valid votes in the specified election
This market will resolve solely based on the percentage of valid votes won by the specified party, defined as the number of valid votes won by the specified party divided by the total number of valid votes in the specified election.
Valid vote percentages will be counted only where the Swedish Election Authority attributes them to the aforementioned party. Vote percentages attributed to other parties or electoral designations will not count, regardless of electoral cooperation, endorsements, coalition agreements, or subsequent parliamentary-group arrangements. If the specified party formally merges into a successor party before the election and does not contest separately, the valid vote percentage of the successor party will count towards resolution.
If the results of this election are not definitively known by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve 50-50.
This market will resolve based on the results of this election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Swedish government, specifically the Swedish Election Authority (Valmyndigheten) (https://www.val.se/).
Volume
$168End Date
Sep 13, 2026Market Opened
Aug 13, 2026, 5:37 AM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...Recent polls ahead of Sweden’s September 13 parliamentary election show the Social Democrats (S) hovering near or below 31 percent, with the latest Demoskop, Ipsos, and Indikator surveys placing the party at 30.3–31.3 percent. Aggregators put S at roughly 30.5 percent, reflecting a sustained decline since late 2025 when readings exceeded 33–36 percent. The right-leaning Tidö bloc has narrowed the overall opposition lead from around 9 points in June to 4.7 points in the most recent Indikator poll, driven by gains for the Moderates and Sweden Democrats. Campaign attention to cost-of-living pressures, security, immigration, and energy has coincided with this softening in S support. With the vote less than three weeks away, current polling trends underpin the market’s assessment that S is more likely to finish under the 31 percent threshold.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated
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