**Recent Swedish polling indicates the Centre Party (Centerpartiet) is polling near or above the 6% threshold ahead of the September 13 parliamentary election, supporting trader consensus favoring the Over at 72%.** Multiple August surveys show support ranging from 5.9% (Indikator) to 8.0% (Verian), with averages around 7% across firms like Ipsos, Novus, and Demoskop. Gains in several polls reflect rising confidence in leader Elisabeth Thand Ringqvist and the party's positioning as a potential coalition kingmaker within the centre-left opposition bloc. The election campaign's focus on economic issues and bloc dynamics has highlighted smaller parties' roles, while the narrowing gap between the Tidö government side and opposition has kept attention on threshold risks for parties like the Liberals. These trends explain the implied probability without guaranteeing the final result.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · UpdatedOver
72% chance
NEW
NEW
Sep 12, 2026
Over
72% chance
NEW
NEW
Sep 12, 2026
Parliamentary elections are scheduled to be held in Sweden on September 13, 2026.
This market will resolve to “Over” if Centre Party (C) wins at least 6% of all valid votes in the specified election
This market will resolve to “Under” if Centre Party (C) wins less than 6% of all valid votes in the specified election
This market will resolve solely based on the percentage of valid votes won by the specified party, defined as the number of valid votes won by the specified party divided by the total number of valid votes in the specified election.
Valid vote percentages will be counted only where the Swedish Election Authority attributes them to the aforementioned party. Vote percentages attributed to other parties or electoral designations will not count, regardless of electoral cooperation, endorsements, coalition agreements, or subsequent parliamentary-group arrangements. If the specified party formally merges into a successor party before the election and does not contest separately, the valid vote percentage of the successor party will count towards resolution.
If the results of this election are not definitively known by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve 50-50.
This market will resolve based on the results of this election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Swedish government, specifically the Swedish Election Authority (Valmyndigheten) (https://www.val.se/).**Recent Swedish polling indicates the Centre Party (Centerpartiet) is polling near or above the 6% threshold ahead of the September 13 parliamentary election, supporting trader consensus favoring the Over at 72%.**
Multiple August surveys show support ranging from 5.9% (Indikator) to 8.0% (Verian), with averages around 7% across firms like Ipsos, Novus, and Demoskop. Gains in several polls reflect rising confidence in leader Elisabeth Thand Ringqvist and the party's positioning as a potential coalition kingmaker within the centre-left opposition bloc. The election campaign's focus on economic issues and bloc dynamics has highlighted smaller parties' roles, while the narrowing gap between the Tidö government side and opposition has kept attention on threshold risks for parties like the Liberals. These trends explain the implied probability without guaranteeing the final result.
Parliamentary elections are scheduled to be held in Sweden on September 13, 2026.
This market will resolve to “Over” if Centre Party (C) wins at least 6% of all valid votes in the specified election
This market will resolve to “Under” if Centre Party (C) wins less than 6% of all valid votes in the specified election
This market will resolve solely based on the percentage of valid votes won by the specified party, defined as the number of valid votes won by the specified party divided by the total number of valid votes in the specified election.
Valid vote percentages will be counted only where the Swedish Election Authority attributes them to the aforementioned party. Vote percentages attributed to other parties or electoral designations will not count, regardless of electoral cooperation, endorsements, coalition agreements, or subsequent parliamentary-group arrangements. If the specified party formally merges into a successor party before the election and does not contest separately, the valid vote percentage of the successor party will count towards resolution.
If the results of this election are not definitively known by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve 50-50.
This market will resolve based on the results of this election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Swedish government, specifically the Swedish Election Authority (Valmyndigheten) (https://www.val.se/).
This market will resolve to “Over” if Centre Party (C) wins at least 6% of all valid votes in the specified election
This market will resolve to “Under” if Centre Party (C) wins less than 6% of all valid votes in the specified election
This market will resolve solely based on the percentage of valid votes won by the specified party, defined as the number of valid votes won by the specified party divided by the total number of valid votes in the specified election.
Valid vote percentages will be counted only where the Swedish Election Authority attributes them to the aforementioned party. Vote percentages attributed to other parties or electoral designations will not count, regardless of electoral cooperation, endorsements, coalition agreements, or subsequent parliamentary-group arrangements. If the specified party formally merges into a successor party before the election and does not contest separately, the valid vote percentage of the successor party will count towards resolution.
If the results of this election are not definitively known by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve 50-50.
This market will resolve based on the results of this election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Swedish government, specifically the Swedish Election Authority (Valmyndigheten) (https://www.val.se/).
Market Opened: Aug 13, 2026, 5:38 AM ET
Volume
$1,171End Date
Sep 13, 2026Market Opened
Aug 13, 2026, 5:38 AM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...Parliamentary elections are scheduled to be held in Sweden on September 13, 2026.
This market will resolve to “Over” if Centre Party (C) wins at least 6% of all valid votes in the specified election
This market will resolve to “Under” if Centre Party (C) wins less than 6% of all valid votes in the specified election
This market will resolve solely based on the percentage of valid votes won by the specified party, defined as the number of valid votes won by the specified party divided by the total number of valid votes in the specified election.
Valid vote percentages will be counted only where the Swedish Election Authority attributes them to the aforementioned party. Vote percentages attributed to other parties or electoral designations will not count, regardless of electoral cooperation, endorsements, coalition agreements, or subsequent parliamentary-group arrangements. If the specified party formally merges into a successor party before the election and does not contest separately, the valid vote percentage of the successor party will count towards resolution.
If the results of this election are not definitively known by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve 50-50.
This market will resolve based on the results of this election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Swedish government, specifically the Swedish Election Authority (Valmyndigheten) (https://www.val.se/).**Recent Swedish polling indicates the Centre Party (Centerpartiet) is polling near or above the 6% threshold ahead of the September 13 parliamentary election, supporting trader consensus favoring the Over at 72%.**
Multiple August surveys show support ranging from 5.9% (Indikator) to 8.0% (Verian), with averages around 7% across firms like Ipsos, Novus, and Demoskop. Gains in several polls reflect rising confidence in leader Elisabeth Thand Ringqvist and the party's positioning as a potential coalition kingmaker within the centre-left opposition bloc. The election campaign's focus on economic issues and bloc dynamics has highlighted smaller parties' roles, while the narrowing gap between the Tidö government side and opposition has kept attention on threshold risks for parties like the Liberals. These trends explain the implied probability without guaranteeing the final result.
Parliamentary elections are scheduled to be held in Sweden on September 13, 2026.
This market will resolve to “Over” if Centre Party (C) wins at least 6% of all valid votes in the specified election
This market will resolve to “Under” if Centre Party (C) wins less than 6% of all valid votes in the specified election
This market will resolve solely based on the percentage of valid votes won by the specified party, defined as the number of valid votes won by the specified party divided by the total number of valid votes in the specified election.
Valid vote percentages will be counted only where the Swedish Election Authority attributes them to the aforementioned party. Vote percentages attributed to other parties or electoral designations will not count, regardless of electoral cooperation, endorsements, coalition agreements, or subsequent parliamentary-group arrangements. If the specified party formally merges into a successor party before the election and does not contest separately, the valid vote percentage of the successor party will count towards resolution.
If the results of this election are not definitively known by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve 50-50.
This market will resolve based on the results of this election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Swedish government, specifically the Swedish Election Authority (Valmyndigheten) (https://www.val.se/).
This market will resolve to “Over” if Centre Party (C) wins at least 6% of all valid votes in the specified election
This market will resolve to “Under” if Centre Party (C) wins less than 6% of all valid votes in the specified election
This market will resolve solely based on the percentage of valid votes won by the specified party, defined as the number of valid votes won by the specified party divided by the total number of valid votes in the specified election.
Valid vote percentages will be counted only where the Swedish Election Authority attributes them to the aforementioned party. Vote percentages attributed to other parties or electoral designations will not count, regardless of electoral cooperation, endorsements, coalition agreements, or subsequent parliamentary-group arrangements. If the specified party formally merges into a successor party before the election and does not contest separately, the valid vote percentage of the successor party will count towards resolution.
If the results of this election are not definitively known by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve 50-50.
This market will resolve based on the results of this election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Swedish government, specifically the Swedish Election Authority (Valmyndigheten) (https://www.val.se/).
Volume
$1,171End Date
Sep 13, 2026Market Opened
Aug 13, 2026, 5:38 AM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...**Recent Swedish polling indicates the Centre Party (Centerpartiet) is polling near or above the 6% threshold ahead of the September 13 parliamentary election, supporting trader consensus favoring the Over at 72%.** Multiple August surveys show support ranging from 5.9% (Indikator) to 8.0% (Verian), with averages around 7% across firms like Ipsos, Novus, and Demoskop. Gains in several polls reflect rising confidence in leader Elisabeth Thand Ringqvist and the party's positioning as a potential coalition kingmaker within the centre-left opposition bloc. The election campaign's focus on economic issues and bloc dynamics has highlighted smaller parties' roles, while the narrowing gap between the Tidö government side and opposition has kept attention on threshold risks for parties like the Liberals. These trends explain the implied probability without guaranteeing the final result.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated
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