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icon for Piauí Senate Election: 1st Place
Elections·Main Election

Piauí Senate Election: 1st Place

icon for Piauí Senate Election: 1st Place
Elections·Main Election

Piauí Senate Election: 1st Place

Marcelo Castro 46%

Ciro Nogueira 29%

Julio Cesar 8.6%

Alexandre Mariano <1%

Polymarket

$35,231 Vol.

Marcelo Castro 46%

Ciro Nogueira 29%

Julio Cesar 8.6%

Alexandre Mariano <1%

Polymarket

$35,231 Vol.

icon for Marcelo Castro

Marcelo Castro

$9,322 Vol.

46%

icon for Ciro Nogueira

Ciro Nogueira

$7,995 Vol.

29%

icon for Julio Cesar

Julio Cesar

$2,254 Vol.

18%

icon for Alexandre Mariano

Alexandre Mariano

$999 Vol.

<1%

icon for Antônio Barros

Antônio Barros

$917 Vol.

<1%

icon for Antônio José Lira

Antônio José Lira

$954 Vol.

<1%

icon for Cloves José

Cloves José

$860 Vol.

<1%

icon for Danniel Rocha

Danniel Rocha

$840 Vol.

<1%

icon for Dionisio Carvalho

Dionisio Carvalho

$879 Vol.

<1%

icon for Francinaldo Leão

Francinaldo Leão

$971 Vol.

<1%

icon for Jardenya Bezerra

Jardenya Bezerra

$840 Vol.

<1%

icon for Jorge Lopes

Jorge Lopes

$840 Vol.

<1%

icon for Maria Madalena Nunes

Maria Madalena Nunes

$945 Vol.

<1%

icon for Missionário Evandro Craveiro

Missionário Evandro Craveiro

$1,105 Vol.

<1%

icon for Pastor Sena

Pastor Sena

$810 Vol.

<1%

icon for Pedro Laurentino

Pedro Laurentino

$982 Vol.

<1%

icon for Tiago Junqueira

Tiago Junqueira

$765 Vol.

<1%

icon for Toinho Dufrango

Toinho Dufrango

$1,060 Vol.

<1%

icon for Major Paulo Roberto

Major Paulo Roberto

$958 Vol.

<1%

icon for Irmão Evandro Marques

Irmão Evandro Marques

$935 Vol.

<1%

The Brazilian Federal Senate election for Piauí is scheduled to take place on October 4, 2026. This market will resolve according to the candidate who wins the most valid votes of any candidate at the specified election. Candidates will be primarily ranked by order of valid votes won. If two or more candidates are tied for any position, ties will be broken by alphabetical order of the candidates’ listed full names as they appear in this market. This market will resolve to the candidate that occupies the highest finishing position after applying this ranking. If the result of this election isn't definitively known by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "Other". This market will resolve based on the result of the election, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Brazilian government, specifically the Superior Electoral Court (Tribunal Superior Eleitoral, TSE) (e.g., www.tse.jus.br/eleicoes/resultados-eleicoes).The tight contest for first place in Piauí’s Senate race stems from consistent polling that places Marcelo Castro (MDB), Ciro Nogueira (PP), and Júlio César (PSD) within the margin of error across multiple surveys through August 2026. High shares of undecided voters and blank/null intentions, combined with Ciro Nogueira’s elevated rejection levels, have kept any single candidate from pulling ahead decisively in first-preference or consolidated vote scenarios. Traders’ pricing reflects this balance, with recent Datafolha and earlier Amostragem and AtlasIntel results underscoring the impact of state-level alliances and the two-seat electoral system on final positioning. Upcoming campaign events and late shifts in voter preferences among the remaining undecided bloc remain the main variables that could separate the leaders before October.

The Brazilian Federal Senate election for Piauí is scheduled to take place on October 4, 2026.

This market will resolve according to the candidate who wins the most valid votes of any candidate at the specified election.

Candidates will be primarily ranked by order of valid votes won. If two or more candidates are tied for any position, ties will be broken by alphabetical order of the candidates’ listed full names as they appear in this market. This market will resolve to the candidate that occupies the highest finishing position after applying this ranking.

If the result of this election isn't definitively known by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "Other".

This market will resolve based on the result of the election, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Brazilian government, specifically the Superior Electoral Court (Tribunal Superior Eleitoral, TSE) (e.g., www.tse.jus.br/eleicoes/resultados-eleicoes).
Volume
$35,231
End Date
Oct 4, 2026
Market Opened
Aug 17, 2026, 6:05 AM ET

Resolver

0x69c47De9D...
The Brazilian Federal Senate election for Piauí is scheduled to take place on October 4, 2026. This market will resolve according to the candidate who wins the most valid votes of any candidate at the specified election. Candidates will be primarily ranked by order of valid votes won. If two or more candidates are tied for any position, ties will be broken by alphabetical order of the candidates’ listed full names as they appear in this market. This market will resolve to the candidate that occupies the highest finishing position after applying this ranking. If the result of this election isn't definitively known by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "Other". This market will resolve based on the result of the election, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Brazilian government, specifically the Superior Electoral Court (Tribunal Superior Eleitoral, TSE) (e.g., www.tse.jus.br/eleicoes/resultados-eleicoes).
The Brazilian Federal Senate election for Piauí is scheduled to take place on October 4, 2026. This market will resolve according to the candidate who wins the most valid votes of any candidate at the specified election. Candidates will be primarily ranked by order of valid votes won. If two or more candidates are tied for any position, ties will be broken by alphabetical order of the candidates’ listed full names as they appear in this market. This market will resolve to the candidate that occupies the highest finishing position after applying this ranking. If the result of this election isn't definitively known by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "Other". This market will resolve based on the result of the election, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Brazilian government, specifically the Superior Electoral Court (Tribunal Superior Eleitoral, TSE) (e.g., www.tse.jus.br/eleicoes/resultados-eleicoes).The tight contest for first place in Piauí’s Senate race stems from consistent polling that places Marcelo Castro (MDB), Ciro Nogueira (PP), and Júlio César (PSD) within the margin of error across multiple surveys through August 2026. High shares of undecided voters and blank/null intentions, combined with Ciro Nogueira’s elevated rejection levels, have kept any single candidate from pulling ahead decisively in first-preference or consolidated vote scenarios. Traders’ pricing reflects this balance, with recent Datafolha and earlier Amostragem and AtlasIntel results underscoring the impact of state-level alliances and the two-seat electoral system on final positioning. Upcoming campaign events and late shifts in voter preferences among the remaining undecided bloc remain the main variables that could separate the leaders before October.

The Brazilian Federal Senate election for Piauí is scheduled to take place on October 4, 2026.

This market will resolve according to the candidate who wins the most valid votes of any candidate at the specified election.

Candidates will be primarily ranked by order of valid votes won. If two or more candidates are tied for any position, ties will be broken by alphabetical order of the candidates’ listed full names as they appear in this market. This market will resolve to the candidate that occupies the highest finishing position after applying this ranking.

If the result of this election isn't definitively known by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "Other".

This market will resolve based on the result of the election, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Brazilian government, specifically the Superior Electoral Court (Tribunal Superior Eleitoral, TSE) (e.g., www.tse.jus.br/eleicoes/resultados-eleicoes).
Volume
$35,231
End Date
Oct 4, 2026
Market Opened
Aug 17, 2026, 6:05 AM ET

Resolver

0x69c47De9D...
The Brazilian Federal Senate election for Piauí is scheduled to take place on October 4, 2026. This market will resolve according to the candidate who wins the most valid votes of any candidate at the specified election. Candidates will be primarily ranked by order of valid votes won. If two or more candidates are tied for any position, ties will be broken by alphabetical order of the candidates’ listed full names as they appear in this market. This market will resolve to the candidate that occupies the highest finishing position after applying this ranking. If the result of this election isn't definitively known by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "Other". This market will resolve based on the result of the election, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Brazilian government, specifically the Superior Electoral Court (Tribunal Superior Eleitoral, TSE) (e.g., www.tse.jus.br/eleicoes/resultados-eleicoes).

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Frequently Asked Questions

"Piauí Senate Election: 1st Place" is a prediction market on Polymarket with 20 possible outcomes where traders buy and sell shares based on what they believe will happen. The current leading outcome is "Marcelo Castro" at 46%, followed by "Ciro Nogueira" at 28%. Prices reflect real-time crowd-sourced probabilities. For example, a share priced at 46¢ implies that the market collectively assigns a 46% chance to that outcome. These odds shift continuously as traders react to new developments and information. Shares in the correct outcome are redeemable for $1 each upon market resolution.

As of today, "Piauí Senate Election: 1st Place" has generated $35.2K in total trading volume since the market launched on Aug 17, 2026. This level of trading activity reflects strong engagement from the Polymarket community and helps ensure that the current odds are informed by a deep pool of market participants. You can track live price movements and trade on any outcome directly on this page.

To trade on "Piauí Senate Election: 1st Place," browse the 20 available outcomes listed on this page. Each outcome displays a current price representing the market's implied probability. To take a position, select the outcome you believe is most likely, choose "Yes" to trade in favor of it or "No" to trade against it, enter your amount, and click "Trade." If your chosen outcome is correct when the market resolves, your "Yes" shares pay out $1 each. If it's incorrect, they pay out $0. You can also sell your shares at any time before resolution if you want to lock in a profit or cut a loss.

The current frontrunner for "Piauí Senate Election: 1st Place" is "Marcelo Castro" at 46%, meaning the market assigns a 46% chance to that outcome. The next closest outcome is "Ciro Nogueira" at 28%. These odds update in real-time as traders buy and sell shares, so they reflect the latest collective view of what's most likely to happen. Check back frequently or bookmark this page to follow how the odds shift as new information emerges.

The resolution rules for "Piauí Senate Election: 1st Place" define exactly what needs to happen for each outcome to be declared a winner — including the official data sources used to determine the result. You can review the complete resolution criteria in the "Rules" section on this page above the comments. We recommend reading the rules carefully before trading, as they specify the precise conditions, edge cases, and sources that govern how this market is settled.