Recent polling from late August shows a tight contest for first place in Maranhão's October 4 Senate election, with Roseana Sarney (MDB) at 16% and a cluster of candidates—including Weverton Rocha (PDT), Lahesio Bonfim (NOVO), André Fufuca (PP), and Eliziane Gama (PT)—within the margin of error at 9-11%. High undecided voters (27%) and blank/null responses (9%) in the Quaest survey limit separation, while the dual-vote system for two seats spreads support across established names and newer contenders. Trader consensus reflects these polling trends and name recognition dynamics without a clear frontrunner, as limited campaign activity and voter indecision have kept probabilities clustered near even for leading options ahead of the vote.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · UpdatedRoseana Sarney 50%
Lahesio Bonfim 30.2%
Weverton Rocha 12.2%
Fufuca 6.7%
$20,083 Vol.
$20,083 Vol.
Oct 4, 2026
Roseana Sarney
50%
Lahesio Bonfim
30%
Weverton Rocha
12%
Fufuca
7%
Wilson Leite
1%
Eliziane Gama
1%
Dr. Hilton Gonçalo
1%
Enilton Rodrigues
<1%
Raimundo Moreira
<1%
Cidônio Gonçalves
<1%
Simplício Araújo
<1%
Roseana Sarney 50%
Lahesio Bonfim 30.2%
Weverton Rocha 12.2%
Fufuca 6.7%
$20,083 Vol.
$20,083 Vol.
Oct 4, 2026
Roseana Sarney
$13,375 Vol.
50%
Lahesio Bonfim
$1,740 Vol.
30%
Weverton Rocha
$2,137 Vol.
12%
Fufuca
$474 Vol.
7%
Wilson Leite
$355 Vol.
1%
Eliziane Gama
$361 Vol.
1%
Dr. Hilton Gonçalo
$353 Vol.
1%
Enilton Rodrigues
$248 Vol.
<1%
Raimundo Moreira
$379 Vol.
<1%
Cidônio Gonçalves
$333 Vol.
<1%
Simplício Araújo
$328 Vol.
<1%
The Brazilian Federal Senate election for Maranhão is scheduled to take place on October 4, 2026.
This market will resolve according to the candidate who wins the most valid votes of any candidate at the specified election.
Candidates will be primarily ranked by order of valid votes won. If two or more candidates are tied for any position, ties will be broken by alphabetical order of the candidates’ listed full names as they appear in this market. This market will resolve to the candidate that occupies the highest finishing position after applying this ranking.
If the result of this election isn't definitively known by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "Other".
This market will resolve based on the result of the election, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Brazilian government, specifically the Superior Electoral Court (Tribunal Superior Eleitoral, TSE) (e.g., www.tse.jus.br/eleicoes/resultados-eleicoes).Recent polling from late August shows a tight contest for first place in Maranhão's October 4 Senate election, with Roseana Sarney (MDB) at 16% and a cluster of candidates—including Weverton Rocha (PDT), Lahesio Bonfim (NOVO), André Fufuca (PP), and Eliziane Gama (PT)—within the margin of error at 9-11%. High undecided voters (27%) and blank/null responses (9%) in the Quaest survey limit separation, while the dual-vote system for two seats spreads support across established names and newer contenders. Trader consensus reflects these polling trends and name recognition dynamics without a clear frontrunner, as limited campaign activity and voter indecision have kept probabilities clustered near even for leading options ahead of the vote.
The Brazilian Federal Senate election for Maranhão is scheduled to take place on October 4, 2026.
This market will resolve according to the candidate who wins the most valid votes of any candidate at the specified election.
Candidates will be primarily ranked by order of valid votes won. If two or more candidates are tied for any position, ties will be broken by alphabetical order of the candidates’ listed full names as they appear in this market. This market will resolve to the candidate that occupies the highest finishing position after applying this ranking.
If the result of this election isn't definitively known by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "Other".
This market will resolve based on the result of the election, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Brazilian government, specifically the Superior Electoral Court (Tribunal Superior Eleitoral, TSE) (e.g., www.tse.jus.br/eleicoes/resultados-eleicoes).
This market will resolve according to the candidate who wins the most valid votes of any candidate at the specified election.
Candidates will be primarily ranked by order of valid votes won. If two or more candidates are tied for any position, ties will be broken by alphabetical order of the candidates’ listed full names as they appear in this market. This market will resolve to the candidate that occupies the highest finishing position after applying this ranking.
If the result of this election isn't definitively known by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "Other".
This market will resolve based on the result of the election, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Brazilian government, specifically the Superior Electoral Court (Tribunal Superior Eleitoral, TSE) (e.g., www.tse.jus.br/eleicoes/resultados-eleicoes).
Market Opened: Aug 17, 2026, 6:00 AM ET
Volume
$20,083End Date
Oct 4, 2026Market Opened
Aug 17, 2026, 6:00 AM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...The Brazilian Federal Senate election for Maranhão is scheduled to take place on October 4, 2026.
This market will resolve according to the candidate who wins the most valid votes of any candidate at the specified election.
Candidates will be primarily ranked by order of valid votes won. If two or more candidates are tied for any position, ties will be broken by alphabetical order of the candidates’ listed full names as they appear in this market. This market will resolve to the candidate that occupies the highest finishing position after applying this ranking.
If the result of this election isn't definitively known by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "Other".
This market will resolve based on the result of the election, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Brazilian government, specifically the Superior Electoral Court (Tribunal Superior Eleitoral, TSE) (e.g., www.tse.jus.br/eleicoes/resultados-eleicoes).Recent polling from late August shows a tight contest for first place in Maranhão's October 4 Senate election, with Roseana Sarney (MDB) at 16% and a cluster of candidates—including Weverton Rocha (PDT), Lahesio Bonfim (NOVO), André Fufuca (PP), and Eliziane Gama (PT)—within the margin of error at 9-11%. High undecided voters (27%) and blank/null responses (9%) in the Quaest survey limit separation, while the dual-vote system for two seats spreads support across established names and newer contenders. Trader consensus reflects these polling trends and name recognition dynamics without a clear frontrunner, as limited campaign activity and voter indecision have kept probabilities clustered near even for leading options ahead of the vote.
The Brazilian Federal Senate election for Maranhão is scheduled to take place on October 4, 2026.
This market will resolve according to the candidate who wins the most valid votes of any candidate at the specified election.
Candidates will be primarily ranked by order of valid votes won. If two or more candidates are tied for any position, ties will be broken by alphabetical order of the candidates’ listed full names as they appear in this market. This market will resolve to the candidate that occupies the highest finishing position after applying this ranking.
If the result of this election isn't definitively known by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "Other".
This market will resolve based on the result of the election, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Brazilian government, specifically the Superior Electoral Court (Tribunal Superior Eleitoral, TSE) (e.g., www.tse.jus.br/eleicoes/resultados-eleicoes).
This market will resolve according to the candidate who wins the most valid votes of any candidate at the specified election.
Candidates will be primarily ranked by order of valid votes won. If two or more candidates are tied for any position, ties will be broken by alphabetical order of the candidates’ listed full names as they appear in this market. This market will resolve to the candidate that occupies the highest finishing position after applying this ranking.
If the result of this election isn't definitively known by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "Other".
This market will resolve based on the result of the election, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Brazilian government, specifically the Superior Electoral Court (Tribunal Superior Eleitoral, TSE) (e.g., www.tse.jus.br/eleicoes/resultados-eleicoes).
Volume
$20,083End Date
Oct 4, 2026Market Opened
Aug 17, 2026, 6:00 AM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...Recent polling from late August shows a tight contest for first place in Maranhão's October 4 Senate election, with Roseana Sarney (MDB) at 16% and a cluster of candidates—including Weverton Rocha (PDT), Lahesio Bonfim (NOVO), André Fufuca (PP), and Eliziane Gama (PT)—within the margin of error at 9-11%. High undecided voters (27%) and blank/null responses (9%) in the Quaest survey limit separation, while the dual-vote system for two seats spreads support across established names and newer contenders. Trader consensus reflects these polling trends and name recognition dynamics without a clear frontrunner, as limited campaign activity and voter indecision have kept probabilities clustered near even for leading options ahead of the vote.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated
Beware of external links.
Beware of external links.
Frequently Asked Questions